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Randomness in defense?

#1 User is offline   amnuxoll 

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Posted 2016-December-12, 11:48

Recently I played a hand in a 1NT contract and went down 1 (BBO Robot Rebate 55% tournament). It felt pretty flat to me but ended up being a 30%. As I studied the travelers I discovered that the robot had played my hand differently than for others. Same contract, same auction, same tricks, the same cards played on those tricks in the exact same order with one exception: I discard a 2 from a 4,2 holding in clubs whereas others discard the 4. Nonetheless, at trick 5 the robot makes a different lead for me than for others.

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Is this normal? I can't see how that tiny difference could create a change in lead from the robot?
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#2 User is offline   Stefan_O 

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Posted 2016-December-12, 12:43

If nothing else, it affects the monte carlo sampling, dismissing some layouts where the 2 or 4 happened to be dealt to another hand. Different sample may lead to different play in close decisions.
It's a random factor, so will of course even out in the long run.
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