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Meckstroth gets lucky

#1 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2015-December-05, 21:13

Reisinger semifinals, you are playing RM Precision and it goes



Double, 2, other?
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
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#2 User is offline   WesleyC 

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Posted 2015-December-06, 00:30

Looks like an automatic double to me.
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#3 User is offline   wank 

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Posted 2015-December-06, 02:39

yes double looks entirely obvious. i'd go so far as to say it would be suspicious if a non-double worked too well.

i suppose the only bid i wouldn't criticise too much is 1nt - considering it's BAM you don't want to end up in a 43 major fit or perhaps clubs if partner has something in diamonds. you'll still get to a 53 major fit via a transfer. that's obviously a gamble (and probably not a good one) but a gamble with a clear upside.
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#4 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2015-December-06, 05:01

It's quite strange, I have often kibitzed Meckstroth, and he just seems to get lucky more often than others, both in the bidding and in the play of the hand.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#5 User is offline   wank 

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Posted 2015-December-06, 05:11

View Postcherdano, on 2015-December-06, 05:01, said:

It's quite strange, I have often kibitzed Meckstroth, and he just seems to get lucky more often than others, both in the bidding and in the play of the hand.


strange indeed. no doubt someone is studying videos and play records so we can learn how to copy the great man's technique.
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#6 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2015-December-06, 06:38

View Postwank, on 2015-December-06, 02:39, said:

yes double looks entirely obvious. i'd go so far as to say it would be suspicious if a non-double worked too well.

i suppose the only bid i wouldn't criticise too much is 1nt - considering it's BAM you don't want to end up in a 43 major fit or perhaps clubs if partner has something in diamonds. you'll still get to a 53 major fit via a transfer. that's obviously a gamble (and probably not a good one) but a gamble with a clear upside.

Another problem with double is that it will be hard to show our extra values after partner bids 1M.

In fact, what is the upside of double? Even opposite Qxxx xxx xxxx Ax or Axx Jxxx xxx xxx INT is a good place to play.

I think I've talked myself into a 1NT overcall.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2015-December-06, 06:38

... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#7 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2015-December-06, 07:03

What extra values do we want to show? If P can't muster more than 1M, I doubt this nasty 17 count will give such a good play for game that we lose much in expectation by playing at the 1-level.
The "4 is a transfer to 4" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
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#8 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2015-December-06, 07:47

I guess I just love overcalling 2 over 1 too much and always talk myself into thinking it's an option. Alright, the auction continues


WWMD?
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
    -- Bertrand Russell
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#9 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2015-December-06, 07:50

View Postcherdano, on 2015-December-06, 05:01, said:

It's quite strange, I have often kibitzed Meckstroth, and he just seems to get lucky more often than others, both in the bidding and in the play of the hand.

I guess, this being the internets, I should clarify that I was sarcastically pointing out that the action chosen by a good player might work out more often than the action chosen by a lesser player.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#10 User is offline   johnu 

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Posted 2015-December-06, 07:52

I don't know what Meckstroth bid (1NT?) but maybe it's the case that you would have been unlucky. :P
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#11 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2015-December-06, 09:38

View Postmgoetze, on 2015-December-06, 07:47, said:

I guess I just love overcalling 2 over 1 too much and always talk myself into thinking it's an option.

I think it's usually wrong to bid 2 with 3=3=2=5. But here it seems particularly awful. It is likely to be our hand, it is BAM, and clubs is quite unlikely to be our highest-scoring strain.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#12 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2015-December-06, 17:25

View Postmgoetze, on 2015-December-05, 21:13, said:


Reisinger semifinals, you are playing RM Precision and it goes

Double, 2, other ?
Over 1 I rank

  • Double. T/O. Fairly descriptive but a bit heavy and lacking in the majors.
  • 2 = NAT. but this is a poor suit.
  • 1N = NAT? but no stop. Double doesn't preclude a notrump contract If partner has a stop.
  • Pass = NAT. but might be hard to catch up later.

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#13 User is offline   eagles123 

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Posted 2015-December-06, 18:06

View Postmgoetze, on 2015-December-06, 07:47, said:

I guess I just love overcalling 2 over 1 too much and always talk myself into thinking it's an option. Alright, the auction continues


WWMD?



Now I would pass, interested to see what Meck did
"definitely that's what I like to play when I'm playing standard - I want to be able to bid diamonds because bidding good suits is important in bridge" - Meckstroth's opinion on weak 2 diamond
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#14 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2015-December-06, 19:10

I don't know what preemptive looks like on this context, but I would certainly pass over 3 spades.
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#15 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2015-December-06, 20:54

View Postmgoetze, on 2015-December-06, 07:47, said:


I guess I just love overcalling 2 over 1 too much
and always talk myself into thinking it's an option.
Alright, the auction continues
WWMD?
I rank
  • 4 = NAT. You might have bid this a round earlier. Partner pre-empted on a knave-high suit.
  • Double = PEN. BAM is super-MPs. And partner would probaly have made 3.
  • Pass = NAT. Discretion might be the better part of valour.

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#16 User is offline   WesleyC 

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Posted 2015-December-07, 05:18

I think "Preemptive" too wide a description for anyone to provide meaningful feedback.

Meckstroth would have a huge amount more information than that about what hand types are consistent with a 3H bid.
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#17 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2015-December-07, 05:26

Meck transferred to 4 and doubled it.



As you can see, declarer had 11 tricks available at one point but chose to take only 9. Lucky?
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
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#18 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2015-December-07, 06:42

I don't think there's anything lucky about talking declarer into going down in a makeable game.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#19 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2015-December-09, 07:32

View Postgnasher, on 2015-December-07, 06:42, said:

I don't think there's anything lucky about talking declarer into going down in a makeable game.

Perhaps some luck in pushing the opps into a makeable game and having them make a mistake during the play to go down though.
(-: Zel :-)
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#20 User is offline   PhantomSac 

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Posted 2015-December-15, 04:02

Inducing mistakes is a skill not luck
The artist formerly known as jlall
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