Doubling 3NT
#1
Posted 2005-March-24, 16:39
KQ109x
98xx
A
10xxx
LHO opens 1NT, RHO bids 2H (transfer) LHO bids 2S, RHO jumps to 3NT.
Four questions:
1) Would you double?
2) Do you agree that the double would be automatic at IMPs?
3) How likely would you say it is that you set 3NT after a spade lead?
4) How likely is it that partner has a spade void? (and would that be bad?)
- hrothgar
#2
Posted 2005-March-24, 18:50
2) No; quite the opposite
3) Not great. Your basically taking 5:2 odds that the J♠ is in the short hand. Spades are marked 1552 around the table. How do you propose to take more than 2 spade tricks if RHO has the J?
RHO could have as much as a 15 count. I'd much prefer to double if RHO rebid 2N, not 3.
4) Not very but I dont think it matters.
______________________________
In the first Bracket I KO I ever won, the only bad number on our card was a -950 after my pard made a very speculative double against 3N against the identical auction.
We go back to compare and we get to this board:
"-950" I say.
Chris Larsen who was at the other table says: "Win 8 ( I think), +1300".
1300? "Yeah", Chris says. "I sent it back".
#3
Posted 2005-March-24, 22:25
2) not at all, why double imp contracts unless they're sacrifices (or you KNOW you can get them down)?
3) less than 5%
4) dunno, but your doubtfull double is based on ♠ opposition, so what do you expect??
#4
Posted 2005-March-25, 02:12
Free, on Mar 25 2005, 04:25 AM, said:
If you think the double is the only way to defeat them (because it will direct partner to the killing lead), then it is often right to double at IMPS even if you don't know you are defeating them. This, after all, is the theory behind the Lightner double.
I don't think this applies to the given hand though.
Eric
#5
Posted 2005-March-25, 02:48
Hannie, on Mar 24 2005, 05:39 PM, said:
1) Would you double?
2) Do you agree that the double would be automatic at IMPs?
3) How likely would you say it is that you set 3NT after a spade lead?
4) How likely is it that partner has a spade void? (and would that be bad?)
1. No.
2. No.
3. More than slender.
4. Doesn't matter. One thing is certain: he can't lead them again.
Save your lead-directing double of 3NT for October 23, 2009 when you are dealt the jack instead of one of the x's.
Roland
#6
Posted 2005-March-25, 13:09
I did double at the table, it goes down 2 after normal defense (anything but a heart lead), but I wasn't sure if I did the right thing. Now I know, I didn't!
I'm already looking forward to Oktober 23rd of 2009!
- hrothgar
#7
Posted 2005-March-25, 13:31
Whether at imps or MPs it would be more likely at MPs as all I can lose is 1 board instead of 1 match if I am wrong.
WinstonM
#8 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2005-March-25, 15:01
A ) RHO is unlimited, and will be well placed to ship if its right.
B ) LHO may have 3 spades, and is about to convert to 4S
Unlike phil i don't see how spades are marked as 5521 around the table. LHO hasnt had his chance to bid yet, he may well be ready to correct to 4S (Which I would also X as I don't know I can beat 4N). I would also not X in imps because if they XX it could easily be a disaster.
#9
Posted 2005-March-25, 17:01
#10
Posted 2005-March-26, 04:19
2 NO
3 Don't like the odds at all --- maybe 20% (off the top of my head rather than scientific )
4 Immaterial
#11
Posted 2005-March-26, 05:30

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