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Pesky preempts

#21 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2015-May-27, 07:42

View PostPhilG007, on 2015-May-27, 07:34, said:

I would pray....and then bid 6


I didn't bother praying, but bid 6.

A was led and dummy decked with x, xx, AKJ10xxx, 10xx

Good news, at trick 2, LHO switches to a club to the 10-K-A

Bad news, he had all the remaining spades.

Worse news, the guy in your seat at the other table only bid 4 which is the limit if they kick off with 2 rounds of hearts.
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#22 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2015-May-27, 11:50

5 here definitely doesn't ask for heart control. It is a general invitation to slam. Think for a moment how much more useful that is than some 11 trick hand with xx of hearts. I will wait my whole life for that hand.

Here I think it's close between 5 and 6. The problem with 5 is I think it tends to be a hand where more general values in partner's hand will help, so he can raise if he thinks he has several cards that have a chance to help you. Here we are just looking for 1 out of 2 very specific cards, and might even make if he has neither which is why I would bid 6. Still it's hard to say whether 5 or 6 has better odds.

One thing to definitely not worry about is partner raising if we overcall 6. If he does, bid 7NT and claim, you probably have 18 tricks or more. An overcall of 6 is generally taking a chance somewhere, there is no way partner should raise because he has an outside A and K. If he has AKQJTx of diamonds he can just make a safe bet that we are void in diamonds.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#23 User is offline   zillahandp 

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Posted 2015-May-27, 15:31

My plan at thi point would be to try to get dbld in five spades so bid 4c and over opps or ps bid to bid 5s as if competing or converting or both, eg 3h 4c 4h or 5d but am bidding six spades over their six
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#24 User is offline   jodepp 

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Posted 2015-May-27, 16:30

I guess what this hand boils down to is 'define what 5, 5N, 6 etc. means with your favorite partner'.

If you're on shaky ground partnership-wise, anything could work. 5 caters to partner having a string of decent clubs and out. 5 caters to partner actually looking at the A with a spade or two. 6 might buy 7from a partner looking at the A and the K.

Even 4 could work out if partner can take a voluntary call (certainly not out of the question). I confess I'm on uncertain ground here even in my most frequent partnership, so I'll just bid what I think I can make - 6. Science be damned :)
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#25 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2015-May-27, 17:19

Rho 3h vul preempt virtually guarantees the opps have the heart ace. That means slam is going to be 5050 at best depending on who has the club K (lho or P) and rho still has a tiny bit of room left for the club K as well. Top that off with the possibility of Jxxx with lho and slam appears to be a reasonable amount short of 50%. IMHO simply leap to

4s

At the very least p will assume we have a really decent spade suit and decent values and they will not get carried away when they have diamonds. Sure it seems like a pansy bid but 4s I reasonable given the facts of the stats on this particular hand. The tools to bid this slam all come with too much risk or are too "fuzzy" to use reliably. There is no science here to use do what you must but consider all of the facts before deciding.
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#26 User is offline   wbartley 

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Posted 2015-May-27, 17:24

Since whatever you do is going to be a guess, I'm going to give up on 7 since 9/10 times RHO will hold the heart A. Now, the question is whether or not partner holds the club K because if he doesn't, you're going down in 6. I double and if partner bids 4 diamonds I bid 4 spades. If he bids 4 clubs, I bid 4NT and if he shows me one key card I bid 6 spades. Trying to maximize my chances here in a guessing situation.
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#27 User is offline   mikestar13 

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Posted 2015-May-27, 17:55

My estimate of the probabilities tell me to go low--if partner has no help and the breaks are bad, this "eleven trick" hand might only take nine, losing a trump, A and two clubs. Obviously this is unlikely, but I can't stomach 6 looking for specific cards when 4 might go down. I recognize this as a "go for it or give it up" hand, there is no question I can ask that partner will know how to answer, so I have to decide by myself. I go low with 4--after all, 4 making 6 scores at least as well as 6 making 4 every time.
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#28 User is offline   daffydoc 

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Posted 2015-May-27, 22:40

In my established partnerships I jump to 5C asking for controls - step one is no control, step 2 second and step 3 first, stop at 5S if pard is not kind enough to show the club king or less likely singleton . daffydoc
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