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Very simple bidding problem Or is it?

#21 User is offline   hotShot 

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Posted 2005-March-13, 13:27

inquiry, on Mar 13 2005, 06:21 PM, said:

Scoring: MP
^^^^^^^^

Ooops!

Sorry!
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#22 User is offline   mikestar 

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Posted 2005-March-13, 14:29

Actually, the possibility of only 4 hearts in a 15+ hand tilts the balance more strongly toward Ben's 3H--if partner happens to have that hand, 4H is overbidding LOTT and 4H-1 whether doubled or not may be our only way to go minus.

This is much less likely than partner holding 5 hearts in a weaker hand, but since it is doubtful whether we should bid 4H at these colors, the four card heart suit possibility tips the scales toward conservatism.
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#23 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2005-March-13, 15:28

Wackojack, on Mar 13 2005, 12:51 PM, said:

This is how the bidding could go in each case:
1.  After 4, LHO 4, pd 5, RHO 5.  Your bid?

2.  After 3, LHO 3, pd 4, RHO 4.  Your bid?

3.  After pass, LHO 2, pd 3, RHO 3,
      you 4?, LHO 4, pd pass, RHO pass,  Your bid?
 
4.  After 1NT probably the same as after pass.

i have a couple of questions for ben... why is pass by you (after #1 and 2) forcing? at what point does a preemptive response become "i've said all i have to say?"

on #1 i double
on #2 i pass

on both of those i'm playing partner for 1552, 1651, or 1561...

i pass #3 and #4 for the same reason i wouldn't bid 3H - i think that if i now bid 4H i invite a double, and i'm pretty sure i don't want that... btw, to my way of thinking, 3H by me has to be my last word (even if it goes (3S) p (p)), because now the opps know i'm weak with hearts... they've pushed the decision to me in an auction in which i should have already said my piece...
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#24 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2005-March-13, 15:31

If 15+ with a 4 card is possible, then I won't bid 4, and I also won't pass. I'll just bid 3...
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#25 User is offline   Flame 

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Posted 2005-March-13, 15:41

How can you all bid 4H at this vul ?????
Are you bidding 6 on favorite vul ? :angry:
I bid 3H.
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#26 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2005-March-13, 15:47

A) 3H: "fought the law" 13-3-1=9 tricks. Expect to pass over 3 or 4s.
:angry: Double: This time the bidding seems to have worked out well since P was able to bid 4d and I am on lead.
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#27 User is offline   hotShot 

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Posted 2005-March-13, 15:47

mikestar is right,
with this agreement i will bid only 3.
If i bid 4 I expect to loose some times, if my partner is minimum and I expect to win when my partner is strong.
With your agreement if he's strong, he might only have 4.

Bidding 4 is a question of distribiution. It's a bet on making at least 8 tricks with your trumps. (e.g. Draw 2 rounds and ruff 3 times each side)
In this board you hope that partner does not have to much of his hcp strength in and that he's short in .
If he's got only 4 trumps, you might need to draw 3 rounds, leaving 1 ruff in his hand and 2 in yours. This is only 6 tricks and you need more than a few HCP to compensate for that.
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#28 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2005-March-13, 16:34

then the 3 bidders agree they have said all they can say?
"Paul Krugman is a stupid person's idea of what a smart person sounds like." Newt Gingrich (paraphrased)
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#29 User is offline   Flame 

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Posted 2005-March-13, 16:50

luke warm, on Mar 13 2005, 05:34 PM, said:

then the 3 bidders agree they have said all they can say?

I honestly dont understand the problem with 3H, dont understand why ppl think this is against the law of total trick. If i understood larry's book, he doesnt ignore vulnarability, the bid must have some correlation with vul, now wouldnt you bid 4H when non vul vs vul ? yes so would i , then how come the law bid stay the same with the opposite vul ?
Imo this is 3H by the law of total tricks, and also show a good hand since im not competing just because i love getting -200.
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#30 User is offline   HeartA 

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Posted 2005-March-14, 02:55

inquiry, on Mar 13 2005, 01:03 PM, said:

Words from the loyal opposition.

3

Why 3. Two reasons. First, yes we are vul and they are not. LOTT says to bid 4, common sense suggest that might be much too much at this vul. Second, we are vul and they are not, partner will know that a 3 bid shows more than it usually does here. If 4 is right, he will bid it about 80% of the time. If 4 is wrong, we will avoid it 100% of the time.

Change this to both vul or anytime we are not vul, I will bid 4 instead of 3's. As usual, I am out on a limb by myself.

Ben

I side with Ben, bid 3 as well.
Senshu
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#31 User is offline   joker_gib 

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Posted 2005-March-14, 04:12

4

I bid what I have (and probably stay in the field) : 5 trumps, a single and not strong !

This will allow partner to take good further decision if needed.
Alain
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#32 User is offline   Wackojack 

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Posted 2005-March-14, 06:40

Wackojack, on Mar 13 2005, 01:51 PM, said:

Wackojack, on Mar 13 2005, 08:45 AM, said:

Scoring: MP

You are South. LHO passes, pd opens 1, RHO overcalls 1.  what is your bid?



OK clearly the majority decision is 4, other mentions were 3 and pass and 1NT.

This is how the bidding could go in each case:
1. After 4, LHO 4, pd 5, RHO 5. Your bid?

2. After 3, LHO 3, pd 4, RHO 4. Your bid?

3. After pass, LHO 2, pd 3, RHO 3,
you 4?, LHO 4, pd pass, RHO pass, Your bid?

4. After 1NT probably the same as after pass.

It looks to me like you would have to pass in each case. So after 3 and 4 your partner has no further say. After 1 and 2 partner has the choice of double, pass or bid on. An advantage?

Something I forgot to mention was that pd 1 opener could be a 4-carder, but only when holding 15+HCP and either 3 or 4 spades. I don't suppose that would make a difference when responding to assuming at least 5.

Thanks for all the replies.
At the table I thought I was being smart in passing at this vulnerability, in the hope that opps might not be inclined to bid up if they didn't know about our heart fit. I think I agree now that even at red, it pays to "support with support". I see the case for raising to 3 and 4. Is there a case for raising to 2, after all there is some defence in clubs?

Your replies have convinced me that after 4 (case 1) or 5 (case 2) that double is the best bid. (Singleton diamond and possible defence in clubs)
As the cards lay pd had: 3, AKQ97, A9763, A3. So we could make +650 in 5, +300 in 4 doubled, +500 in 5doubled. So I suppose our best chance of getting to play in 5 was to bid 4 immediately. Was our system at fault in not playing 5-card majors? But then if partner had Kxx, AQxx,AQx, xxx, then 4 would still make with well placed cards.
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#33 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2005-March-15, 00:57

pass is just masterminding. Just bidding what you have works out great, amazing isn't it?
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#34 User is offline   keylime 

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  Posted 2005-March-16, 03:43

I bid 3 myself with casual partners. LOTT bidders will chime for four but this hand is way too weak with the pitiful losers and three spades. Don't bury pard here. If NV vs. VUL though, four hearts happily.

I'd bid 3 hearts in my reg. pard because I have something defensive to offer (we play mixed raises in comp). The 5th heart negates the three spades and the clubs help. If I was slightly better 3C as a fit jump.
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#35 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2005-March-18, 07:07

This doesn't happen very often, but I follow 100% things Ben said.


"It looks to me like you would have to pass in each case. So after 3 and 4 your partner has no further say. After 1 and 2 partner has the choice of double, pass or bid on. An advantage?"

After '1' Partner may be already in 500 and have nothing to choice :rolleyes:.
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