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Card Combination Play Which has better odds?
#1
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Posted 2005-February-24, 11:44
Ok you are in 6 hearts after opps bid to 5 spades, but get a lucky trump lead to the Q♥ and Ace. Are the odds better to cash the A♦ and try to ruff out the king, or cross to the J♥ and take the simple finesse?
#2
- mmm Duvel
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Posted 2005-February-24, 11:47
Finesse has more chance.
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
#3 Guest_Jlall_*
Posted 2005-February-24, 12:03
well the problem is entries. If you play ace of diamonds, diamond ruff, heart to hand, diamond ruff with jack your only way back to your hand is a trump which means you will be left with 2 black suit losers. So your only hope to make is Kxx of diamonds onside.
#4
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Posted 2005-February-27, 02:17
Don't quote me on this because I am a terrible statician - but i believe the odds of the KJ tight in one hand (which is what you need for this to work) is less than 10%. (My reckoning 4%) Otherwise as Jason points out you dont have the entries or the number of ruffs in dummy to do what you need to do. Think a finesse is still close to 50% unless they changed it.
#5
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Posted 2005-March-04, 06:10
I don't think it is that simple as previous posters indicate :-).
Considering 2 entries back to hand:
1.The ruffing way works against any 3-3 diamond distribution, while the finesse fails 50% of the 3-3 distr. (K with W)
2.With 4-2 split, the ruffing wins when W has Kx, but finesse is better when W has xx.
3.With 5-1 split, ruffing is better when W has bare K, or E has sin J. Finesse is never better than ruffing with this split.
The odds of 1. are higher than 2. , so ruffing wins by a small margin, I estimate about 56%
Considering 2 entries back to hand:
1.The ruffing way works against any 3-3 diamond distribution, while the finesse fails 50% of the 3-3 distr. (K with W)
2.With 4-2 split, the ruffing wins when W has Kx, but finesse is better when W has xx.
3.With 5-1 split, ruffing is better when W has bare K, or E has sin J. Finesse is never better than ruffing with this split.
The odds of 1. are higher than 2. , so ruffing wins by a small margin, I estimate about 56%
#6
- The Abbess
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Posted 2005-March-04, 07:16
Since this is BAM it might matter that you are two down if the finese fails.
The world would be such a happy place, if only everyone played Acol :) --- TramTicket
#7
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Posted 2005-March-04, 07:33
Free, on Feb 24 2005, 12:47 PM, said:
Finesse has more chance.
im pretty sure you are wrong.
but since you dont have enough entries for the ruff, the diamond finnese is best.
#8
- Axxx Axx Axx Axx
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Posted 2005-March-04, 09:15
Play A♦ and than small for a ruff. After you return to you hand with trump.
Then play the Q for a ruffing finesse, and drop ♠ if the queen in not covered with the king.
This should work, if anyone holds K or Kx, and if LHO hold Kxxx.
If the J drops you can repeat the ruffing finesse with the 10.
This should be better than the simple finesse.
Then play the Q for a ruffing finesse, and drop ♠ if the queen in not covered with the king.
This should work, if anyone holds K or Kx, and if LHO hold Kxxx.
If the J drops you can repeat the ruffing finesse with the 10.
This should be better than the simple finesse.
#9
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Posted 2005-March-04, 10:10
hotShot, on Mar 4 2005, 10:15 AM, said:
Play A♦ and than small for a ruff. After you return to you hand with trump.
Then play the Q for a ruffing finesse, and drop ♠ if the queen in not covered with the king.
This should work, if anyone holds K or Kx, and if LHO hold Kxxx.
If the J drops you can repeat the ruffing finesse with the 10.
This should be better than the simple finesse.
Then play the Q for a ruffing finesse, and drop ♠ if the queen in not covered with the king.
This should work, if anyone holds K or Kx, and if LHO hold Kxxx.
If the J drops you can repeat the ruffing finesse with the 10.
This should be better than the simple finesse.
I dont think your line makes LHO has Kxxx.
#10
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Posted 2005-March-04, 10:12
Jlall, on Feb 24 2005, 01:03 PM, said:
So your only hope to make is Kxx of diamonds onside.
IF im not mistaken the finnese will work for Kxxx onside as well.
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