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A GIB inference? Trick 1 play decides which way it finesses

#1 User is offline   Antrax 

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Posted 2014-August-04, 07:58


North leads a trump. S has ♥J962. If S produces the ♥J on trick 1, declarer wins, plays two more rounds ending in dummy, crosses to the ♠A, draws the last trump and finesses N successfully for the queen, making +1.
If S ducks the heart or plays the 9, declarer again draws 3 rounds ending in dummy, now crosses with the ♦A, draws the last trump and plays a spade to the K and finesses S for the ♠Q, down 1.
Basic GIB which explains why it touches the diamond A at all instead of finessing some way and ensuring a make (it assumes it will always pick up the Q) but I can't figure out why South's play to trick 1 is relevant, I'd think once the trump situation is known it doesn't change declarer's play what S did in the past.
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#2 User is offline   steve2005 

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Posted 2014-August-04, 10:29

N has 1♥ S has 4♥ this means odds favour N having Q♠

but there is no need to touch A♦ so if wrong will still make.



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#3 User is offline   1eyedjack 

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Posted 2014-August-04, 10:42

View Poststeve2005, on 2014-August-04, 10:29, said:

N has 1♥ S has 4♥ this means odds favour N having Q♠

Why, then, does GIB finesse against South having the Spade Queen when he plays the Heart 9 at trick 1?
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