[eagles123]

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trick 1
♥J A 6 2

trick 2
♠K 8 2 5

trick 3
♦2 4 A 6

trick 4
♠3 6 ?


sorry this is probably really obvious and the hand wasn't an important one just a BBO random but not sure

Thanks

Eagles

[billw55]

Not much to go on. At this point I guess I will finesse, mainly because putting up the king would make the ♦A look like a silly play.

If I was actually declaring this hand, I would play ♠AK and exit a heart, maintaining the diamond position.

[inquiry]

You would need to work out the chances based upon vacant space principles.

Of course, we have all heard the old adage, "eight ever, nine never". Sounds cute. It means when holding eight cards missing the queen finesse for it, with nine cards missing the queen play for the drop.

Let's try to do a little better. They don't have much. Looks like 1♥ overcaller has the ♥KQ, and could have as much as the ♣KJ and ♦KJ plus or minus the spade queen. Surely North has something more than some hearts to the jack for the 3♥ eventual raise, but not much more because he didn't bid 2♥.

So he big question is how many hearts does South hold. if six, then the vacant space is very close (After all but the ♠Q has been played you can count the spades. So South had 6♥ plus one spade to North's 3 ♥ plus 2 spades. That is 6 vacant spaces in South to 8 in north to hold the spade queen. So the odds would be 8/1th or 57% that north holds the spade Queen.

If you thought that South had only five hearts, it would be 5♥+1♠ for south compared to 4♥ + 2[sp\ for north or basically an even guess 714th either way).

I would take the finesse because at worse it is even bet, and at with four hearts north might have made the raise one round earlier.

Finally a note on the bidding. It should be west reopening with 3[sp] not east bidding 3♠ IMHO

[johnu]

After ♥A, ♠K, I want to get to hand for a spade finesse because I'm playing spades to be 3-1 (I think hearts are more likely to be 6-3) but I don't want to play on the minors, so I exit a heart at trick 3. There are lots of possibilities on how the play will go, with some endplay chances, but it depends on how the defence goes afterwards.

Playing a diamond to the ace at trick 3 wouldn't have crossed my mind.

[gszes]

opening lead of heart J makes me feel rho has the heart KQ
and yet rho did not raise hearts until it went 2s p p. If
rho had a singleton spade along with KQx of hearts they could
have found a heart raise and would they really want to raise
to 3h if they were looking at Qxx of spades?? probably not

So the combination of it seems lho has all of the defensive power
left in the deck and the probable holdings of rho seem to favor
trying for the drop.

[gszes]

gszes, on 2014-July-05, 11:21, said:

opening lead of heart J makes me feel rho has the heart KQ
and yet rho did not raise hearts until it went 2s p p. If
rho had a singleton spade along with KQx of hearts they could
have found a heart raise and would they really want to raise
to 3h if they were looking at Qxx of spades?? probably not

So the combination of events makes it seem lho has all of the
defensive power left in the deck and the probable holdings of
rho seem to favor trying for the drop.

Vacant spaces if a very good theory but it is designed to be used
primarily when no other practical information is available with which
to make a decision:)

[johnu]

gszes, on 2014-July-05, 11:21, said:

opening lead of heart J makes me feel rho has the heart KQ
and yet rho did not raise hearts until it went 2s p p. If
rho had a singleton spade along with KQx of hearts they could
have found a heart raise and would they really want to raise
to 3h if they were looking at Qxx of spades?? probably not

So the combination of it seems lho has all of the defensive power
left in the deck and the probable holdings of rho seem to favor
trying for the drop.

You have the auction mixed up. RHO is the one who overcalled.

[whereagles]

The hand has many throw-in possiblities. Playing a diamond to the ace breaks one of those possibilities, so it's probably not the right play.

Cash a top spade, play a heart back.