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Blackwood, anyone?

#1 User is offline   uva72uva72 

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Posted 2014-June-23, 13:44

My link

Match points, ACBL robot individual.

Given that 2NT opener's max is 21 HCP, at least 9 HCP are missing, enough for two Aces to be missing (and defeat even a small slam). I've read prior explanations for a robot's failure to use Blackwood that deal with scenarios and the small likelihood that opener could have a hand lacking two Aces. In this instance, South would have to have a perfecto to make 7 opposite the North hand. So why no Blackwood here?
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#2 User is offline   1eyedjack 

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Posted 2014-June-23, 19:28

Yes it should Bwood.

I am guessing, but I think that it determines the possibility of a missing Ace, not by counting points and subtracting from 40, but by dealing random hands and counting the incidences of a missing ace in the selection. On this occasion it happened to come up with nil.

Def an area for improvement.



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#3 User is offline   steve2005 

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Posted 2014-June-23, 20:19

View Post1eyedjack, on 2014-June-23, 19:28, said:

Yes it should Bwood.

I am guessing, but I think that it determines the possibility of a missing Ace, not by counting points and subtracting from 40, but by dealing random hands and counting the incidences of a missing ace in the selection. On this occasion it happened to come up with nil.

Def an area for improvement.

but if GIB believes partner's bidding or opponents bidding it knows its off 10 pts , 6 isn't certain even if off only 1 ace, not to mention the 30% or so chance of a 4-1 spade break. 7 is incredibly optimistic.

I find it very unlikely that random 10 pts in two hands could produce about 68% hands for opps without an ace and without JTxx , never mind all the missing Kings are onside. Because to bid a grand you need to be 68% certain and many people would put that number higher
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