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Raising 1C with 4 trumps

#1 User is offline   shevek 

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Posted 2015-February-19, 05:19

Playing Standard, 15-17 NT & better minor,
I believe the chance of a 1 opener having 4+ clubs is about 85%. Right?

What is the figure when responder has four clubs?
So the auction goes:
1 - (pass or bid) - ?

Responder has four trumps, no major to show and is thinking of raising to 2 or 3.
What is the chance of an 8+ card fit?
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#2 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2015-February-19, 05:48

Obviously the fact that we have 4 clubs increases the chance that partner dos not hold length, but there is another huge factor at work - RHO's pass over 1.

Particularly if we are very weak, then RHO's pass over 1 becomes the equivalent of the dog that didn't bark. If partner had long clubs, the chances of RHO not being able to overcall are pretty small, so the profile of hands becomes skewed towards partner holding a balanced hand with relatively short clubs.
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#3 User is offline   Bbradley62 

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Posted 2015-February-19, 06:36

The stats depend on your partnership agreements as to what you open when you are 3-3 or 4-4 in the minors.
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#4 User is offline   1eyedjack 

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Posted 2015-February-19, 07:22

Not to be dismissed also is the possibility of agreeing that a 1N response shows 4 card Club support. That consults opener on whether or not to retreat, and removes broadly the same amount of bidding space.
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#5 User is offline   Bbradley62 

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Posted 2015-February-19, 07:32

View Post1eyedjack, on 2015-February-19, 07:22, said:

Not to be dismissed also is the possibility of agreeing that a 1N response shows 4 card Club support. That consults opener on whether or not to retreat, and removes broadly the same amount of bidding space.

This is, of course, a very common old-fashioned understanding. If responder shows four of any of , then responding NT must be showing four . If it is your plan to raise with only four of them, then it should be your partnership understanding that responding NT shows four ; otherwise, you'd never bid NT over a 1 opening.
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#6 User is offline   fromageGB 

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Posted 2015-February-21, 08:47

Raising clubs on four implies there is a lower bid that is put to some artificial use, as Bbradley points out. It could be that 1 shows 5, or 1 shows a 4 card major while 1M shows 5, but without anything unusual, I would have thought raising clubs shows 5.
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#7 User is offline   suokko 

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Posted 2015-February-21, 12:32

About 71% for 8+ cards fit in clubs.

But I would only raise with 4 card support after overcall or t/o double. But the raise with 4 feels a routine action in a competitive auction.

Spoiler

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#8 User is offline   Bbradley62 

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Posted 2015-February-21, 13:14

View Postsuokko, on 2015-February-21, 12:32, said:

About 71% for 8+ cards fit in clubs.

But I would only raise with 4 card support after overcall or t/o double. But the raise with 4 feels a routine action in a competitive auction.

Spoiler

I'm not really sure how to read the code, but are you stipulating that Opener would open 1 with (32)44 shape (with appropriate HCP)?
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#9 User is offline   TylerE 

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Posted 2015-February-21, 15:10

View PostBbradley62, on 2015-February-21, 13:14, said:

I'm not really sure how to read the code, but are you stipulating that Opener would open 1 with (32)44 shape (with appropriate HCP)?


No. diamonds(north) < 4
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