I view this problem as a lot more complicated than those of you who just say double finesse in spades... Let's just start with the claimed percentages to gain two spade tricks.....
SteveMoe, on 2014-May-19, 22:54, said:
Pavlicek offers a great tool for analyzing these situations at:
http://www.rpbridge....cgi-bin/xcc1.pl
Playing
♠ by finessing twice yields 4 tricks 65.6% of the time
Playing
♥ to split 3-2 yields 3
♥ tricks 67.8% of the time.
Playing
♠ top down yields 4 tricks 57.8% of the time.
xx1943, on 2014-May-20, 02:04, said:
You are rite, Pavlicek's tool is great, but the odds for at least 4 tricks with double finesse are 76% and with banging down A and K are 69,44%
Spade double finesse is the correct play imho.
First off, are the odds for 4 tricks in spades 65.6% as Steve claimed, or 76% as xx1943 claimed. I will categorically say they are both wrong. First, how did they get their numbers?
Steve used the tool he quoted, but incorrectly. To start off he has the spade suit splitting 3-2 67% of the time. I will say the 3-2 split will occur zero percent of the time because you are missing six spades, not five. His other numbers are also wrong (no doubt in part because he has given them too few spades).
How about xx1943's numbers. He claims the double finesse will yield two extra tricks 76% of the time. Wow, an impressive number, is it right? No, and hell no. Why no? He used the "tool" with 13 vacant spaces in each hand. The opening lead marked East with
♦QJ (and West with nothing of value), so the vacant space should have been West with 13 and East with 11. That would change his numbers from 76% (well 76.6 and 59.5) to 80.35 and 59.2%. These are even better than his original numbers, so why hell no?
WHY HELL NO? The first reason why hell no is that just because the first finesse wins, doesn't mean you are going to gain TWO tricks in spades. The obvious one is when the WEST holds QJ876 or similar. He will pop up with the Queen or Jack on the second round, so you gain one spade trick, but not a second one. A second why hell no is
what if East has Qx or Jx doubleton and ducked the first spade allowing the nine to win? How do you play, do you cross to your hand (and if so how). Let's say you play club to King and lead a second spade, when that loses to the doubleton queen or jack, back comes a club to the Ace and then a diamond (or a heart which if you duck and back comes a diamond). You can't unravel your tricks. What if after the
♠9 wins, you then bang your
♠AK. That works if East ducked spade Qx of Jx, but fails if he had xx.
Can east ducking the spade Ten cause problems when he has
♠Qxx or even
♠QJx? Probably not, but what if when your
♠9 wins, you play
♣J then club to King-Ace and West returns a diamond? You win the Ace in dummy, cross to the heart Ace, cash your club (you might need that trick) and lead a spade up... ouch... you could end up winning 1S, 2C, 2D, 1H for down three (you might wonder why West didn't split his spades on the second round now.
So no. Double finesse in spades will not gain two extra tricks anywhere near 76 (or 80) percent of the time, and the hand is far from over rather or not the first spade finesse wins. Nor is cashing one top spade as bad as the numbers xx1943 implied. If East drops the
♠Q or
♠J under the ace, you have a safety type play for at least one extra spade trick of finessing on the second round. If both follow you are home rather or not East wins the spade or not.
These and other complications make me unsure how to proceed, especially against the defenders capable of ducking the first spade hook with Qx or Jx. If I needed only ONE EXTRA SPADE, the spade hook is a no brainer that would work 80% of the time (based on current vacant space data), but I need two extra tricks plus have to unravel my club suit.
Therefore, I am really still looking for some one to come up with the best line, and explain how they play... for instance if the spade hook wins, and if the spade hook doesn't win, assuming best defense (which might very well be to duck with Qx or Jx offside). I don't buy the take the double hook for an answer, which is why I went with clear spades with AK and then a third. At least I can't be "tricked" by a duck from the Jx of Qx....
Help
