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Game or Slam? How to decide?

#1 User is offline   vodkagirl 

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Posted 2014-May-01, 20:30

This is a 2/1 auction with a semi-regular partner:




What is my bid?

I am thinking 5 may make but 6 carries on the pre-empt.

How do I decide which bid to make?

Many thanks for replies.
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#2 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-May-01, 20:41

Why are you thinking about pre empting with this hand? You certainly have enough defence to take 6S off a number. I would Bwood and then bid 6D if pd showed an Ace. Even an immediate 6D bid is not unreasonable, but at this vul it is unlikely they will sacrifice over 6D.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#3 User is offline   karlson 

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Posted 2014-May-01, 20:54

You souldn't be worried about preempting the opponents in this position. Given that you have 4 good spades, they are very unlikely to bid no matter what you do (and if they do bid 6, you can double them for what looks like at least -3 and probably -4 or more, which, at this vulnerability, will be more than enough to compensate anything you can make). I guess lefty could have 8 clubs or something where preempting might give him a tough problem, but most likely you're just going to buy the hand at any level.

So you should just concentrate on what you think you can make. 5 is a complete lock (what losers will you have?), and 6 just needs to catch partner with AQxxxx, or the A. Partner having only 5 diamonds is a real possibility though, given the vulnerability and your hand. You could keycard, but you'll still have the guess about which top diamond partner has (11-12 card fits are not what keycard was designed for). Better would be if you have some kind of asking bid available, like 2n, then you can guess to sign off in 5 if partner shows a minimum, and otherwise bid 6. Perhaps 3 will accomplish the same goal. But most likely you're going to end up guessing. I would guess to go low with 5 unless I can get partner to offer some further signs of life.
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#4 User is offline   johnu 

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Posted 2014-May-01, 23:08

 the hog, on 2014-May-01, 20:41, said:

Why are you thinking about pre empting with this hand? You certainly have enough defence to take 6S off a number. I would Bwood and then bid 6D if pd showed an Ace. Even an immediate 6D bid is not unreasonable, but at this vul it is unlikely they will sacrifice over 6D.


Assuming you play key card Blackwood, you could still be off 2 aces. If partner has 6 diamonds, I don't know how you get to a probably pretty good 6 diamonds missing the K and A without guessing. I would start off by cue bidding 3 and hope to get partner to eventually bid Blackwood or jump to 6.
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#5 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2014-May-02, 02:53

I would bid 4 hoping for an exclusion blackwood response, you want to get the auction up fast because it's possible opps have a monster heart or club fit here which they can find if you give them space, 5/6 will never be cheap, 5/6 can be (it's entirely conceivable opps have a 6-1 spade fit and only have 2 hearts and a spade to lose in 6 when 6 makes). The question you're not likely to get answered is how many spades partner has, 0-2 good, 3 bad.
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#6 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2014-May-02, 03:30

A question, what would a 2NT response mean for you and your partner after the 2 overcall?
(-: Zel :-)
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#7 User is offline   vodkagirl 

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Posted 2014-May-02, 04:50

 Zelandakh, on 2014-May-02, 03:30, said:

A question, what would a 2NT response mean for you and your partner after the 2 overcall?


Situations arise all the time that I am not prepared for and this is one of them. With fewer and more HCP I would have bid 3N so 2N would be to play if I had fewer but no more HCP than I actually hold.
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#8 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2014-May-02, 04:56

Weak Key Card Blackwood works here. Partner cannot have three key cards. Thus, WKCB would apply. You can therefore find out if the key card count does or doesn't include the trump king.
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#9 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2014-May-02, 05:37

 vodkagirl, on 2014-May-02, 04:50, said:

Situations arise all the time that I am not prepared for and this is one of them. With fewer and more HCP I would have bid 3N so 2N would be to play if I had fewer but no more HCP than I actually hold.

In that case I would think the obvious option is to start with 3 as has already been suggested. The problem with this is that partner is very likely to continue 4 given our spade holding, which has not brought us forward. Are you clear about which advances now would be forward-going with diamonds as trumps? If not then an immediate key card ask may well be the most practical option despite the obvious disadvantages. Sometimes you have to bash when there is no system there to help.

To that end I would recommend to you that you play a 2NT response artificially here, just as you should be doing without the overcall. There are several options and no clear answer as to which is best. Here it might have enabled you to find out more information before having to make a final decision. On other hands it might enable you to decide between 3NT and a suit contract. Ken's WKCB, while a perfectly good method, is not really practical for a partnership that does not have an agreement about 2NT so I would suggest steering clear of such ideas for the time being.
(-: Zel :-)
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#10 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-May-02, 06:00

Easy 4NT. If pard has 2 keys, you're off to 6, which should be a cakewalk.
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#11 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2014-May-02, 06:06

 whereagles, on 2014-May-02, 06:00, said:

Easy 4NT. If pard has 2 keys, you're off to 6, which should be a cakewalk.


xxx, xx, KQxxxx, Ax = no play

I agree you're probably bidding 6, but not necessarily a cakewalk, of course x, xxx, AQxxxx, xxx one key and it's cold, as KR points out WKCB works a treat here.
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#12 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2014-May-02, 06:39

Do min partner hands exist, that make slam reasonabe?
Sure - A to 6th, spade single / doubleton, makes it on trumps 1-1,
req. the marked spade finess, so you have to make a move.

The standard approach would be to start with a forcing raise of 3S,
and see, what partner thinks of that, alternative, if available a 4C
splinter bid, better than 3S, because partner will bid 4S, with spade
shortage.

4NT does not run away, and partner will certainly cooperate with AK 6th,
afterall, we talk about a green vs. red weak two, not about red. vs. green.

With kind regards
Marlowe
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#13 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2014-May-02, 07:48

 P_Marlowe, on 2014-May-02, 06:39, said:

Do min partner hands exist, that make slam reasonabe?
Sure - A to 6th, spade single / doubleton, makes it on trumps 1-1,
req. the marked spade finess, so you have to make a move.

The standard approach would be to start with a forcing raise of 3S,
and see, what partner thinks of that, alternative, if available a 4C
splinter bid, better than 3S, because partner will bid 4S, with spade
shortage.

4NT does not run away, and partner will certainly cooperate with AK 6th,
afterall, we talk about a green vs. red weak two, not about red. vs. green.

With kind regards
Marlowe


You have 6 trumps, it makes on trumps 1-0 which often happens :)
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#14 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2014-May-02, 08:22

 Cyberyeti, on 2014-May-02, 06:06, said:

xxx, xx, KQxxxx, Ax = no play

 Cyberyeti, on 2014-May-02, 07:48, said:

You have 6 trumps, it makes on trumps 1-0 which often happens :)

For the first point, I will gamble that with the 2S overcall the opposition doesn't have ten clubs and nine hearts.

For the second point, I will gamble on the 1-0 break.
"Bidding Spades to show spades can work well." (Kenberg)
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#15 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-May-02, 14:47

 Cyberyeti, on 2014-May-02, 06:06, said:

xxx, xx, KQxxxx, Ax = no play
I agree you're probably bidding 6, but not necessarily a cakewalk, of course x, xxx, AQxxxx, xxx one key and it's cold, as KR points out WKCB works a treat here.


Well.. I did say it should, not would :)

Not a very likely outcome, though...
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#16 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2014-May-02, 15:51

At this vul expect to be off two aces here very often.

If pard only shows one keycard I will give up and stop in 5d.

btw 4c as keycard is common:

4d=no key cards
4h=1 no Q
4s=1 with Q
4nt=2 no q
5c=2+Q
--

btw some of these examples look closer to a one diamond bid at this vul. :)
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