[Cyberyeti]

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lead is 4♠ (4th highest), other opp plays the 2 (odd), plan the play

[Hanoi5]

Heart to the Q. I'm hoping to lead a diamond from hand and win my tricks via 5 diamond tricks if West has Ax in diamonds.

[Cyberyeti]

Hanoi5, on 2014-February-16, 17:54, said:

Heart to the Q. I'm hoping to lead a diamond from hand and win my tricks via 5 diamond tricks if West has Ax in diamonds.

Spoiler

I'm really guessing here, W wins A♥ and plays a second spade which dummy will win if you let it

[Hanoi5]

Cyberyeti, on 2014-February-16, 18:46, said:

Spoiler

I'm really guessing here, W wins A♥ and plays a second spade which dummy will win if you let it

Spoiler

Another heart to my Jack and a diamond to the Queen. It looks ugly but it always did anyway...

[Cyberyeti]

Hanoi5, on 2014-February-16, 19:04, said:

Spoiler

Another heart to my Jack and a diamond to the Queen. It looks ugly but it always did anyway...

Spoiler

diamond goes 2 6 Q 10, second diamond goes 5 J 4 9, E plays a heart

[rhm]

Against best defense you probably need LHO to have the diamond ace doubleton or singleton.
Does this mean you should play on diamonds?
No you lack the hand entries to establish diamonds.
Even if you overtake the spade in hand at trick one and shoot back a diamond LHO can go in and shoot back a heart.
So diamonds can not be established against best defense. Play on clubs instead.
Let dummy win the first spade and continue spades.
If this holds, play clubs from the top and hope they are good for four tricks, in which case I do not see how the defense can deprive you from 2 spades, 4 clubs, a diamond and two heart tricks.
The defense could establish two diamond tricks if LHO has more than 2 diamonds because in this case the hand gets squeezed on the run of the clubs
Playing on hearts early is dangerous, since the defense could come to 3 aces, a heart and a club trick.

Rainer Herrmann

[bluecalm]

I am tempted to try another spade hoping they duck and then play club to the T.
If they take it I have 4clubs + 2 spades and only need 3 tricks in red suits which I will get as I have two stoppers in hearts.
If they take a spade and switch to heart then I take in hand and play T of clubs.
I have 3spades, 2hearts so they can't really afford to take it and if they duck I am trying D to the Q.
It seems to me that this line works very often. I run a double dummy simulation with assumptions that W has 12+hcp, 4spades, 3-4 hearts and As. Here are the results at trick two:

Cards, winning, best:
Qs 603 997
Kh 7 3
7h 408 617
6h 408 617
2h 407 614
Qd 342 619
5d 333 446
Ac 531 803
Kc 528 802
Jc 16 404
9c 16 404
7c 19 407

Even double dummy playing one top club isn't the best and I think my line is the reason.

[rhm]

bluecalm, on 2014-February-17, 04:38, said:

I am tempted to try another spade hoping they duck and then play club to the T.
If they take it I have 4clubs + 2 spades and only need 3 tricks in red suits which I will get as I have two stoppers in hearts.
If they take a spade and switch to heart then I take in hand and play T of clubs.
I have 3spades, 2hearts so they can't really afford to take it and if they duck I am trying D to the Q.
It seems to me that this line works very often. I run a double dummy simulation with assumptions that W has 12+hcp, 4spades, 3-4 hearts and As. Here are the results at trick two:

Cards, winning, best:
Qs 603 997
Kh 7 3
7h 408 617
6h 408 617
2h 407 614
Qd 342 619
5d 333 446
Ac 531 803
Kc 528 802
Jc 16 404
9c 16 404
7c 19 407

Even double dummy playing one top club isn't the best and I think my line is the reason.

---

Low club to the ♣T at trick 3 loses. LHO returns ♦6

Rainer Herrmann

[Cyberyeti]

rhm, on 2014-February-17, 05:02, said:

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Low club to the ♣T at trick 3 loses. LHO returns ♦6

Rainer Herrmann

Rainer, you're a genius, you have the actual layout almost card perfect, except for added insult to injury, W's second club was the 8, I played exactly as Bluecalm suggested and they found the diamond switch.

[Zelandakh]

My line would have been ♠T, ♥Q (losing), ♠Q, ♥J, ♣J. I am not claiming this is better than Rainer's (obviously), just interested how it does (since I am too lazy to enter in a DD solver) and how much worse it is.

[bluecalm]

Quote

Low club to the ♣T at trick 3 loses. LHO returns ♦6

Rainer Herrmann

Thank you for pointing out error in my analysis.
I run a double dummy sim starting from trick 3 (after Qs) and here are the results:

Cards, winning, best:
Kh 7 7
7h 480 870
6h 480 870
2h 480 870
Qd 350 642
5d 383 605
Ac 514 804
Kc 514 804
Jc 415 715
9c 415 715
7c 415 715

It agrees that Ac at trick 3 is better

[gszes]

Zelandakh, on 2014-February-17, 06:39, said:

My line would have been ♠T, ♥Q (losing), ♠Q, ♥J, ♣J. I am not claiming this is better than Rainer's (obviously), just interested how it does (since I am too lazy to enter in a DD solver) and how much worse it is.

W/o commenting on the overall approach what is the purpose behind leading the club J rather
than starting clubs from the top. Playing clubs from the top will get you 4 clubs anytime the
Q or 8 drop singleton or doubleton and gasp 5 clubs when the Q8 are doubleton. Leading the J
first appears to be a pessimistic approach to the game with no practical benefits.

[Cyberyeti]

gszes, on 2014-February-17, 12:39, said:

W/o commenting on the overall approach what is the purpose behind leading the club J rather
than starting clubs from the top. Playing clubs from the top will get you 4 clubs anytime the
Q or 8 drop singleton or doubleton and gasp 5 clubs when the Q8 are doubleton. Leading the J
first appears to be a pessimistic approach to the game with no practical benefits.

Leading the J does nothing that cashing AK doesn't and loses to Q and Qx, small to the 10 is better in that it establishes 4 tricks against a 5-2 if the 10 is taken.

[Zelandakh]

It loses against Q or Qx with East and gains against Qxx with West, no? My feeling (no maths) was that the latter would be more common. Oh I see the confusion - the lead was in hand so ♣T led and overtaken by the jack.

[rhm]

Zelandakh, on 2014-February-17, 06:39, said:

My line would have been ♠T, ♥Q (losing), ♠Q, ♥J, ♣J. I am not claiming this is better than Rainer's (obviously), just interested how it does (since I am too lazy to enter in a DD solver) and how much worse it is.

This line looses when East has ♣Qxxx. Once you start on hearts the defense will continue hearts, establishing a heart trick in addition to a club trick and 3 aces. I mentioned this danger previously.

Zelandakh, on 2014-February-18, 04:10, said:

It loses against Q or Qx with East and gains against Qxx with West, no? My feeling (no maths) was that the latter would be more common. Oh I see it, the lead was in hand so ♣T led and overtaken by the jack.

No! You can afford to lose a club trick if West has Qxx, as long as you lose only 3 aces in addition. This is possible if West has no more than 2 diamonds.

Assuming from the bidding and opening lead that West has all the aces and 4-4 in the majors, the hand can essentially be made if either

1) West holds no more than 2 diamonds, where you can afford to lose a club trick
or
2) West has 3 or more diamonds but the club queen drops and you do not lose a club trick unnecessarily.

Rainer Herrmann

[Zelandakh]

OK, I see the issue. Luckily I do not play against any Easts who would find this heart switch from their (now singleton) ten into the suit we led twice raher than play back their partner's suit (also led twice). If this is the only problem then I am happy enough. Usually I have missed something much more serious on these problems, since I always struggled in this format (even more so than f2f).

[lamford]

I have not read any of the other posts (I will do so after, of course), so apologies if I repeat any points made. I don't think it can be made if West is Axxx ATxx none Qxxxx, so I will play him to be Axxx ATxx x Qxxx, and play a heart to the jack at trick two. If West ducks, I will play a club to the jack, cash just one more high club, and now play a low diamond from the Qx to the king, followed by reverting to a major. I must not play the low spade, however, as West can fly ace, cash the ace of hearts, and exit with a spade. I need the low spade as a stepping stone to dummy. So, play king of spades, which West wins, cashes the ace of hearts, and exits with a spade. Now I cash the other high spade and throw West in with a spade.

If West wins the first heart and exits with a heart, I win in hand, finesse the jack of clubs, cash one high club (again necessary), and play a diamond to the king (it does not help East to rise) and play a high spade from South as before. It would not matter in these lines if West were Axxx ATxx A Qxxx, as I would still make. I don't think I can make it when West is Axxx ATxx A xxxx unless I duck a diamond completely early on, which would be a big view.

I see on the actual layout West is 4-4-3-2. Playing a heart to the queen at trick two still works fine. If it holds, I will finesse the jack of clubs, cash the ace, and then it is easy as the queen drops. And if East has ♣Qxxxx there was no winning line anyway. If West wins the heart and exits with a heart, a club to the jack and cash a high club works as before.

This post has been edited by lamford: 2014-February-18, 09:43

[HighLow21]

Win the spade in dummy, heart to the Q♥, and if it wins, lead the 10♣ and overtake with J♣. If this fails, wonderful. If not, I establish clubs and simultaneously unblock and establish my majors. I could go down on a diamond lead from lefty, but this line makes it more likely that if diamonds are going to be broached early, it will be by righty.