[cherdano]

rhm, on 2014-February-11, 04:15, said:

Maybe you should change your agreed range for an 1NT overcall when

1) Partner has passed already and
2) you are vulnerable and
3) you play IMPs not MP

Those conditions matter

Rainer Herrmann

All vul is an argument against competing for the partscore at matchpoints. Since game is still possible (I like to be in 23-24 hcp games with positional values and most hcp known to be on my right), I don't think it's an argument against bidding 1NT at IMPs.
I am much more likely to pass this hand at MPs.

[mfa1010]

cherdano, on 2014-February-11, 06:30, said:

All vul is an argument against competing for the partscore at matchpoints. Since game is still possible (I like to be in 23-24 hcp games with positional values and most hcp known to be on my right), I don't think it's an argument against bidding 1NT at IMPs.
I am much more likely to pass this hand at MPs.

I agree. A big upside with 1N is finding games. At matchpoint we have -200 looming as a disaster, which is just a scratch at imps.
I would bid 1N at both scorings though.

[rhm]

cherdano, on 2014-February-11, 06:30, said:

All vul is an argument against competing for the partscore at matchpoints. Since game is still possible (I like to be in 23-24 hcp games with positional values and most hcp known to be on my right), I don't think it's an argument against bidding 1NT at IMPs.
I am much more likely to pass this hand at MPs.

It is possible when partner has passed and RHO opened the bidding with a five card or longer major and you hold 15 HCP balanced that you can make 3NT and partner will bid it.
But claiming that vulnerable game chances from your side opposite 8-9 HCP balanced should be reasonable is a stretch. For starters it is unclear how often you would be able to get to dummy when RHO has an opening bid.
Nor is it likely that opponents will have much difficulty finding the best lead. A heart lead will often spell defeat, whether you have a double stop or not.

Whatever, for every time your passed partner will attempt or bid 3NT (and you would certainly not accept any invitations) you can ask yourself what would have happened if your partner's hand would be exchanged with LHO?
That looks easy to me. You will usually have the pleasure to play your contract doubled and now the entry situation to dummy might get desperate.
So the frequency for telephone numbers against you will be much higher than 3NT games you will reach and make.

I would want better odds before putting my neck on the line and the odds change significantly in your favour, if your notrump overcalls start a bit higher vulnerable opposite a passed partner.

Rainer Herrmann

[gszes]

When we open 1N 15-17 (with 15) we start with around a 45% chance we have a game. On average

this hand we can expect marginal game chances to top out at around 33% and we know our rho

has a longish heart suit and the probable entries to use it making that 33% look awfully thin.

Too much risk for too little reward especially since we might even be a tad below 15. The fact that,

on average, we may win a positive score in the part score battle does little to offset the rather sizeable

risk of getting slaughtered with a penalty double. It is precisely because of positions like this that have

helped popularize ever weaker opening bids.

Pass

[the hog]

Pass. This should be unanimous after partner has passed and you hve no real source of tricks.

[MrAce]

rhm, on 2014-February-11, 07:39, said:

But claiming that vulnerable game chances from your side opposite 8-9 HCP balanced should be reasonable is a stretch. For starters it is unclear how often you would be able to get to dummy when RHO has an opening bid.

1-Imo "reasonable" word was used very accurately for IMP. You are looking at only 1 side of the coin and ignore the other when you talk about entries,

-Our strong hand is sitting behind theirs.
-Defense will be made from 1 hand mostly.
-Declarer has advantage in general but in these occasions declarer will have much more advantage due to be able to tackle suits close to DD accuracy. People often play 3 NT or 4 M 15 vs 9 .I would want to play all 15-9 hcps in game when defense is missing a leg and an arm and i know who holds the hcps and my 15 hcp is sitting behind those hcps.

2-When it comes to hands where LHO is about to DBL. It won't help you to overcall with 17 hcp as oppose to 15. You will be playing 1 NT doubled 17 vs 0 instead of 15 vs 2. (or similar)

3-There will be hands where you can play your best fit only after you overcall 1 NT and they double.

4-By bidding 1 NT you will be telling your hand in 1 bid at 1 level, as oppose to getting in later or responding to a balancing pd, or simply surrendering with the fear of phone numbers.

5- How about the hands where our pd and opener's pd has equal values (approx 6 hcps) ? You are killing all 1 level responses (if RHO opened 1m), thus killing their chance of finding a fit.

6-When it is wrong to overcall 1 NT, does not mean opponents will always make the right decision(s) regardless of their bridge fame and legacy.

Everyone has their own excuse or requirements that they created for themselves. As you can read above some says they need 2 Aces, some says they need 7 playing tricks, some says they needs extra hcps, some (in past topics) prefer only certain type of stoppers....and the list goes on and on.

Imo none of those justify the advantage of being able to get in early, describe your shape, strength accurately and at 1 level. Most of those requirements which are mostly created with the fear of phone numbers, has very little effect on the disaster they are catering for while they have negative effect on the rest of the hands. Ironically no one, including you mentioned (unless i missed it) spot cards which are actually the real game changers in NT contracts, if that's where we are going to end up playing.

FWIW i made a poll among some top players i could find. I am yet to see 1 single passer. I admit not all of them bid 1 NT. some prefered double. However those who starts double with this have custom tools. Ira Chorush for example said that hands like xxx Axxx xxx KQx are best treated by responding 1 NT to a take out dbl of 1♠, not 2♥ or 3♥. His reference was BW magazine.

Rest of the star players (i admit all of them from USA but that is hardly an excuse for passers for obvious reasons ) asked were mostly supporting (in specific order) For example it was an auto 1 NT for Drew Casen.

-1 NT
-DBL
-1♠
-None passed

But up to some of us here, it is not even close and PASS it is. Even if everyone posted a blank reply, i guaran*******tee you that i could spot the passers.(Just like they can spot me for bidding )

[johnu]

MrAce, on 2014-February-11, 18:46, said:

Everyone has their own excuse or requirements that they created for themselves. ... some says they need 7 playing tricks

For the record, I really would like 8 playing tricks if I'm doubled because I'm so afraid after being doubled that I will drop a trick

[MrAce]

Zelandakh, on 2014-February-11, 04:12, said:

I thought you played the stopper as optional Timo.

Not over 1 M openings......Lets just say this BBF is dragging me down to their sissy conservative style

[mfa1010]

MrAce, on 2014-February-11, 19:15, said:

Not over 1 M openings......Lets just say this BBF is dragging me down to their sissy conservative style

I have a personal theory that players who currently don't play so much but talks a lot about bridge tend to go conservative.

I have no idea if it applies to posters on bbf, since I know few irl. But I have noticed that it seems to apply to some extend to commentators on bbo vugraph. Commentators who I know play little themselves tend generally to advocate a conservative style, calling conservative bids "sensible" and frown at aggressive bids when they lose out. Same thing on our national bridge forum where I know the posters quite well.

However so often the aggressive approach is the winning one, because the opponents will have a much harder time when we are aggressive. I think that is easy to forget if one rarely plays.

Well, maybe it is just me and my pocket book psychology

[rhm]

MrAce, on 2014-February-11, 18:46, said:

2-When it comes to hands where LHO is about to DBL. It won't help you to overcall with 17 hcp as oppose to 15. You will be playing 1 NT doubled 17 vs 0 instead of 15 vs 2. (or similar)

Agreed.
17 vs. 0 is not much better than 15 vs. 2

But just a question:

Why don't you advocate a 1NT overcall with 13 in red opposite a passed partner?

After all 13 vs. 4 is no worse than 15 vs 2.
And if your passed partner has a maximum pass you could still look for 3NT. Remember: The vulnerable game bonus does not need such heavy odds.

Rainer Herrmann

[Zelandakh]

mfa1010, on 2014-February-11, 19:41, said:

I have a personal theory that players who currently don't play so much but talks a lot about bridge tend to go conservative.

I am certainly one of those who spends more time talking about bridge than playing. You can perhaps judge for yourself whether I have gone conservative but noone that knows me has ever given any indication they think so. On the other hand, a few people have given indications that they think I bid like a raving lunatic in the other direction. It is also the case that vugraph commentators always see all 4 hands and it is difficult not to let that sway you at all. So a risky preempt that is perhaps (just) a long-term winner is highly likely to be trashed on hands where it loses or even where it might lose if the opps find the best response.

As an aside, +1 to Timo for making me laugh. In this area I am surely a bona fide sissy and a 3244 16 count with ♥Kx or ♥Ax still looks like a takeout double to me rather than a 1NT overcall. I would be willing to bet you are the conservative one in psyching though - perhaps BBF will "cure" me of that habit in time too.

[Lord Molyb]

mfa1010, on 2014-February-11, 19:41, said:

I have a personal theory that players who currently don't play so much but talks a lot about bridge tend to go conservative.

That explains why I am so aggressive

[mfa1010]

Zelandakh, on 2014-February-12, 07:40, said:

I am certainly one of those who spends more time talking about bridge than playing. You can perhaps judge for yourself whether I have gone conservative but noone that knows me has ever given any indication they think so. On the other hand, a few people have given indications that they think I bid like a raving lunatic in the other direction. It is also the case that vugraph commentators always see all 4 hands and it is difficult not to let that sway you at all. So a risky preempt that is perhaps (just) a long-term winner is highly likely to be trashed on hands where it loses or even where it might lose if the opps find the best response.

No, I have no other perception of you than being a player with very good judgment.

[HighLow21]

1NT and partner is free to take me out if he is weak (spades or a garbage stayman come to mind). If I get a bad result, so be it. It happens. I'm much more likely to get a bad result on this hand, and the following hands, and the partnership as a whole, if I don't follow system.

In my view, righty or partner has the key card (Q♥) about 75-80% of the time. I stand to gain from the opening lead and I also have potential in spades and clubs. Both include tenaces over the opener. If partner has the right 8-count 3NT could be on.

I would venture that in this spot bidding my values and shape, i.e. 1NT, beats double or pass hands down in the long run, but clearly there are posters in this thread who disagree with me. And clearly, like so many deals that land in this forum, in this case it worked out poorly (otherwise why would one choose to take the time to post the hand in the forum)?

Agreed with Rainer's assessment that conditions matter. Add the following condition: you're already up 2-0, so playing conservatively does make sense. You're far less likely to suffer a double-digit IMP swing by passing, and you are already ahead in the game. And vulnerable and partner has passed. Agreed.

In spite of all those factors in the long run I think 1NT is the winner.

[ArtK78]

HighLow21, on 2014-February-20, 13:08, said:

1NT and partner is free to take me out if he is weak (spades or a garbage stayman come to mind). If I get a bad result, so be it. It happens. I'm much more likely to get a bad result on this hand, and the following hands, and the partnership as a whole, if I don't follow system.

In my view, righty or partner has the key card (Q♥) about 75-80% of the time. I stand to gain from the opening lead and I also have potential in spades and clubs. Both include tenaces over the opener. If partner has the right 8-count 3NT could be on.

I would venture that in this spot bidding my values and shape, i.e. 1NT, beats double or pass hands down in the long run, but clearly there are posters in this thread who disagree with me. And clearly, like so many deals that land in this forum, in this case it worked out poorly (otherwise why would one choose to take the time to post the hand in the forum)?

Agreed with Rainer's assessment that conditions matter. Add the following condition: you're already up 2-0, so playing conservatively does make sense. You're far less likely to suffer a double-digit IMP swing by passing, and you are already ahead in the game. And vulnerable and partner has passed. Agreed.

In spite of all those factors in the long run I think 1NT is the winner.

The reason it wound up in this forum is that I held the hand in real life and chose NOT to overcall 1NT. And that decision worked out very well, as the other player holding my cards did overcall 1NT and wound up going -500 while I wound up defending a partial.

[the hog]

ArtK78, on 2014-February-20, 15:41, said:

The reason it wound up in this forum is that I held the hand in real life and chose NOT to overcall 1NT. And that decision worked out very well, as the other player holding my cards did overcall 1NT and wound up going -500 while I wound up defending a partial.

This is not a surprise on the given hand.

[MrAce]

ArtK78, on 2014-February-20, 15:41, said:

The reason it wound up in this forum is that I held the hand in real life and chose NOT to overcall 1NT. And that decision worked out very well, as the other player holding my cards did overcall 1NT and wound up going -500 while I wound up defending a partial.

[HighLow21]

the hog, on 2014-February-20, 18:05, said:

This is not a surprise on the given hand.

Cool! So yet again I disagree with the majority of the posters. I love being the underdog. And I still think it was a bad decision--good result aside.