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Zelandakh, on 2014-February-14, 04:59, said:
Ignoring the auction, the chance of one or more honours from 3 cards is 1 - ((8.7.6)/(13.12.11)) ~= 80%. I assume your 29% is the calculation for no picture honour (with odds of one appearing being ~71%) but even if you are calculating something else entirely I am not absolutely certain why this calculation is relevant. As an example, the actual hand had no spade honour from 3 but no play for 7. Add the ♠J and change ♣K to the ace and the grand makes. So how does this bring us forward?
Just as an aside, the chance of drawing an honour from a single card is 5/13 = 38% so something must have tipped you off that 29% could not be correct for 3 cards surely?!
Just as an aside, the chance of drawing an honour from a single card is 5/13 = 38% so something must have tipped you off that 29% could not be correct for 3 cards surely?!
Sorry Wrong calc. 71% is right
