Cyberyeti, on 2013-November-07, 02:59, said:
Bidding over a high preempt is never an exact science whether it's yours or theirs. You have to work on frequency grounds. When you have a suit you're prepared to announce as trumps at the 4 level, the number of hands that partner wants to overrule that on, but doesn't want to bid 6 is very small, and you live with that.
4♠ for us is keycard.
This is getting very frustrating as we are just repeating ourselves:
You know the image in your mind of how few hands actually want to play a new suit, that is precisely what I'm seeing when I'm thinking of how many hands you have where partner you have a side suit and partner divines what you want and you wouldn't have just guessed it right anyway.
I AM thinking of frequency. You have a large hurdle because even if hands where you want to use these bids are 10 times as frequent as hands that you want to play a different suit, you still need the
bid to be useful a reasonable percentage of the time. Not being able to bid your suit, when that's what you have, rates to be very bad. However when you have a fit, you would have guessed it right more than 50% of the time, I would say significantly more. Plus you aren't completely blocked from asking for information: you could just RKC: even if that isn't your first choice. I mean if you have a side suit trick source, you can generally ruff it out anyway, it seems that side suit controls will often matter more than a side suit fit, you'll have some DEPO type response after they compete. Furthermore partner won't always know what you need, so he will get it right less that 100% of the time. So the question is what's the difference? I would say pretty small, as in less than 10%. Thus making it useful no more often that the "I want to play my own suit" hand. I don't actually have any hard numbers here, no one does. But we are certainly not gauging this the same way.
Playing 4
♠ as key card seems absolutely crazy. I mean I play kickback, but can't I just play 4nt as that here? I mean isn't the ability to play spades worth surrendering one extra step?