I think the default recipient of chat should be the sender of the last private message received (same as now Ctrl-R). Chatting to the lobby should require an active decision (such as Ctrl-L).
If you inadvertently send chat to a single recipient instead of the lobby, you annoy one person; the other way round, 5000 (well, soonish 10000
I think more than half of the current Lobby noise are messages intended to be private (and sometimes the content can be much more embarassing than "I thought you had 4 spades, not 3"...).

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