[Hanoi5]

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MP's, what do you do?

[mr1303]

You might chance a double. But you'll write -790 into your score card often. Depends on how much of a swinger you are.

I like to lead and rack up +100. But then I didn't bid 4H in the first place.

[mikeh]

I have no idea if the title was intended to suggest that we now have an issue of defending spades or declaring hearts, but the notion of playing 5♥ makes me ill.

I double. They may make but I'm on lead and I am looking at, I hope, 3 clear tricks and potential kickers in diamonds and clubs. Moreover, I have seen even a favourable vulnerability partner take a trick on defence in the past, especially when I have only 2 cards in his suit.

As to 'trusting your opps', that aphorism only goes so far. RHO may have stretched for his overcall, and LHO may have expected us to hold 3+ hearts, and thus with his own 3 card holding, stretched, 'knowing' his partner was short.

I probably average more undoubled undertricks in defence than 99% of readers of this forum, and very rarely write up -790, and I double even tho 790 would not be an astounding surprise.

[cherdano]

I think the main argument against double is: we may already have won the board with our 4♥ bid, if other tables play 3♠ only.

I.e., if opponents stretched and they are down, then others probably are playing 3♠ only, and doubling doesn't gain anything. And if the opponents have full values, so that others will be playing 4♠ as well, then they may well be making.

[the hog]

DA

[rmnka447]

Double, it looks like there is at least three tricks in my hand. I might reconsider if partner is apt to open real dross as a weak 2 equivalent in first chair at favorable vulnerability.

Yeah, 4 ♠ doubled making isn't going to be a good result. But 4 ♠ doubled off 1 will take all the match points when our side doesn't compete past 3 ♠. If the double's wrong, it's only one board.

♦ Q opening lead from me (playing Q from AKQ).

[JLOGIC]

cherdano, on 2013-November-01, 18:14, said:

I think the main argument against double is: we may already have won the board with our 4♥ bid, if other tables play 3♠ only.

I.e., if opponents stretched and they are down, then others probably are playing 3♠ only, and doubling doesn't gain anything. And if the opponents have full values, so that others will be playing 4♠ as well, then they may well be making.

I don't think that totally stands up to analysis though. For instance, if 2H 2S is normal, surely 3H is a normal bid, and LHO still has no game try and some LHOs at other tables will surely bid 4S over that rather than 3S if LHO chose to bid 4S at our table in this auction.

Or perhaps it is the 2S bid that is aggressive, maybe most tables will go 2H AP and will make 110 or more so doubling protects against that.

And who really knows? Maybe we are making 4H and some people will open 3H with partners hand. Maybe our opp will play it well and go down 1 when some people in 3S are down 1. Maybe one or two people will double 3S on 2H 2S 3H 3S p p (is it really that crazy when they're red at MP and you expect to make 3H? I would not do it but I wouldn't be surprised if someone did).

Maybe someone else will even bid 4H if Hanoi did lol.

At some point surely the fact that we are overwhelmingly likely to beat them must matter more when we are really unsure what the field will do. I would not be surprised if less than half the field was in 3S making the same amount of tricks as our opp will make in 4S. I would agree with you if I thought we were beating them like 60 % of the time but I would definitely expect to beat them more often than that. Even though we are in a good situation with such great chances to beat them I think this is a time where we can gamble an already good board for a better board, risking a zero. I mean, even mikeh will double, imagine how often I think I'm beating them with my glass-half-full attitude

[cherdano]

I was careful not to say whether I find that argument convincing...
In any case, it would be embarrassing to lose the board to Mike by not doubling