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What do you bid? Using Losing Trick Count

#1 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2005-January-09, 20:55

Vul vs Vul at imps you hold:
KJ1076
K103
6
K1097

Auction is:

E S W N
1C 1S P 2C
x ?


2C* is a limit raise or better by unpassed hand.

You hold a 7 loser hand, the equivalent to an opening bid no matter what your HCP says - and no, I would not open in 1st or 2nd seat due to the lack of defensive strength implied by opening. However, the question is what should you do at imps with a 7 loser hand opposite a limit raise?
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#2 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2005-January-09, 21:13

First off not a 7 loser hand, you need to use adjustments also, so 8 loser hand with adjustments.

2s=easy.
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#3 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2005-January-09, 21:32

From Roman System and every other source I have found on LTC, you count 1 loser for each A, K, or Q missing from a 3 card or longer suit. No adjustments are necessary on this hand. It is 7 losers. There is no adjustment for aceless hand. The only long suit adjustment is a 5 card suit without the A or K; obviously, in the example hand, we have KJ10 in our long suit. Loser count is: Spades 2, Hearts 2, Diamonds 1, Clubs 2. Total of 7 losers.

See http://home.wxs.nl/~hjr/index.html for good description of LTC.
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#4 User is offline   bearmum 

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Posted 2005-January-09, 21:42

Winstonm, on Jan 10 2005, 03:55 PM, said:

Vul vs Vul at imps you hold:
                                            KJ1076
                                            K103
                                            6
                                            K1097

Auction is:

  E    S    W  N
  1C  1S  P  2C
  x    ?
     

2C* is a limit raise or better by unpassed hand.

You hold a 7 loser hand, the equivalent to an opening bid no matter what your HCP says - and no, I would not open in 1st or 2nd seat due to the lack of defensive strength implied by opening.  However, the question is what should you do at imps with a 7 loser hand opposite a limit raise?

With a seven loser hand opposite a LIMIT raise surely 2 is the correct bid ??

IF partner is stronger than a limit raise HE can proceed :)
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#5 User is offline   Double ! 

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Posted 2005-January-09, 21:56

would bid 2 spades at this point. Should partner now decide to make a game try, depending on the nature of the try, all of those spot cards including JT9 and T9 start to look better (like well-placed behind opener). By the way, just out of curiosity: Do you play 2 Clubs shows 3+ spades or 4+ spades on this sequence?
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Posted 2005-January-10, 03:07

pass...i like to play this as stronger than 2S. I know some play pass showing a 4 card suit overcall
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#7 User is offline   Chamaco 

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Posted 2005-January-10, 03:34

Quote

From Roman System and every other source I have found on LTC, you count 1 loser for each A, K, or Q missing from a 3 card or longer suit.  No adjustments are necessary on this hand.  It is 7 losers.  There is no adjustment for aceless hand. 


Beware of using this blind evaluation: you may end up counting 2 losers fot both Qxx and Axx, which obviously cannot work:
e.g.
Axx(x) = 2 losers ALWAYS
Kxx(x) = 2 losers only with A onside, so about 2.5 losers
Qxx(x) = 2 losers only with both AK onside, so about 2.75 losers

This scheme is adjusted adding other honors, but the principle is to account for the probability of simple(double/deep) finesses working or not, given the bidding.

Also, in evaluating "half losers", take into account the positionality (likely location of opps honors given the bidding), wasted values in opps suits (deevaluate), singletons/voids in pard suit (deevaluate).

your hand:

KJ1076 = KJT = 2- losers
K103 = 2.5 losers
6 = 1 loser
K1097 = 2.5 losers

total = 8- losers
------------------

However, the LTC should not be applied blindly: it is likely that most values are onside (RHO pened), so most finesses should work, in which case the hand may be upgraded to, say, 7-7.5 losers, a marginal opening bid strength.

E S W N
1C 1S P 2C
x ?

The real question now is: in this bidding sequence, what is the meaning of pass ?
After RHO double, you are not forced to bid, so you might:

1) pass with minimum overcall
2) bid anything with a close-to opening hand
3) yes, I forgot redouble, which might how a max overcall, say some 15-17 hcp overcall

My choice is a 2S bid, which in my opinion should show more or less your hand: close to opening bid, no biddable side suit (clubs is opps suit). If pard then invites, I will pass.
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#8 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2005-January-10, 04:15

I'm sorry but I really don't see this hand as an 8 loser hand! You're behind an opener, and your partner has at least invitational values! :(

I'd just bid 2 help suit trial.
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#9 User is offline   EricK 

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Posted 2005-January-10, 07:09

What does redouble show?

Maybe 2XX is our only making game? Of course, parnter should only leave it in with something in

Eric
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#10 User is offline   helium 

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Posted 2005-January-10, 07:31

Im more agressiv then the rest of you on this one.
i bid 3:())



kenneth
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#11 User is offline   inquiry 

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Posted 2005-January-10, 08:21

Justin has this one 100% right.

Here you can make a mild game try by using PASS of the double. You parnter's 2 bid "FORCED" you to the level of 2. That is, it committed you to play at least 2 and I play the interference has not changed that condition. In this situation, the "Principle of Fast Arrival" applies. The weakest bid you could make is 2, 2 and other bids (besides 2 and pass) would be stronger still. This pass is ideal. Wouldn't it be nice to hear your partner accept your game try with a nice 2 bid here? That would be enough to get you to bid game. If he bids 2, you could retreat to 2 as his bidding diamonds doesn't help your hand at all.

Why guess to over bid (something other than pass and 2) or to underbid (a 2 bid). Let' their double help you defined your strength and seek additional info from partner. If he returns to 2 you will gladly pass too.

Ben
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#12 User is offline   firechief 

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Posted 2005-January-10, 09:05

agreeing w/justin for the 3rd time. From now on, my default option is "agree w/justin." I'd pass. If partner has either a tip-top limit raise or a little better, he won't simply return to 2s. He'll either bid a red suit at the 2 level, or make some other move. I like my hand, but the reality of it is that I don't have an acceptance yet. I have the inbetween, so I'll make an encouraging noise (pass, not 2s). Bidding 2h is misdescriptive since I have only 3, and partner may upgrade a "double fit" when there isn't one. Against that, I'm more likely to have a stiff diamond when I bid 2h, so there's a mild offset for the misdescription, but I still don't like it. Also, there's a good chance after the double that the clubs are 6-1, in which case I don't want to get too high. If partner has a singleton club, he's just that much more likely to advance when I pass.
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#13 User is offline   Chamaco 

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Posted 2005-January-10, 09:18

inquiry, on Jan 10 2005, 02:21 PM, said:

Justin has this one 100% right.

Here you can make a mild game try by using PASS of the double.

Ben, is this "standard practice", e.g., would you expect yourpickup partner to understand it without previous agreements ?
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#14 User is offline   inquiry 

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Posted 2005-January-10, 09:27

Chamaco, on Jan 10 2005, 11:18 AM, said:

inquiry, on Jan 10 2005, 02:21 PM, said:

Justin has this one 100% right.

Here you can make a mild game try by using PASS of the double.

Ben, is this "standard practice", e.g., would you expect yourpickup partner to understand it without previous agreements ?

It would depend upon the level of my partner. For most "experts" I would take this as standard practice. So, for example, Jlall, who is an expert says pass, firechief too. I am sure you have read Robson/Segal where this type auction is discussed at legnth, so anyone playing R/S would play this way too. However with almost all intermediate and many advance players, it is probalby not standard. In fact, not all experts play it this way. I add this probably from experience...lots of people seem to think pass is always the weakest bid. Nothing can be further from the truth if you want to be flexible and to make the most of the available space in competitive auctions.

Once again, the theory goes, however, that after 2 (or whatever support bid partner makes at whatever level) that you are going to at least your suit at the next lowest level.... if RHO had passed, with the weakest hand you could have held you were going to bid 2. So if RHO bids (or dbls), 2 is the weakest bid. Notice how PASS with this hand adds greater definition to not all 2 but also to other bids (2 for example would be stronger than pass). They give you extra room use it. Imagine if RHO had passed 2, now you have a problem. 2 misdescribes your hand, 2 could be a lot weaker. The double actually helps you out.
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#15 User is offline   helium 

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Posted 2005-January-10, 11:52

I also think pass is best if it shows a better bid then 2 Spades.
But whit a pickup partner i bid 3 Spades.

kenneth
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#16 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2005-January-10, 14:16

Thanks for the comments everyone! Here is the point I was trying to make with this hand and LTC.

LTC is much more accurate guage of bidding in suit contracts after a fit has been established, especially a 9-card major fit.

Question is, what does a limit raise show as far as cover cards? (Cover cards are Aces, Kings, and QJx or Q in suit bid by pard or trumps)

Playing that a limit raise over a simple overcall is 11-13, which is expert standard, it is hard to construct a hand which has less than 4 cover cards unless it is A, A, K, which should be promoted anyway.

With 7 losers covered by 4 cover cards, playing imps where vul. games are at a premium and a 37% chance of success is all you need to bid games profitably, the best action on this hand is to simply bid the game.

Best action? 4S.
(It made 5 without defensive error)
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