Posted 2013-June-26, 18:35
I don't understand stayman on Axxx x AKQxxx xx
We can count 33-34 hcp and more to the point we can count 7 tricks in our hand.
I would gerber (yes, I know we all mock gerber bidders, but this is exactly where gerber is useful absent relay methods, which I have only played over 2N in one partnership.
If we find out we're off an Ace, I bid 6♦.
If as here I find out we have the Aces, I ask for Kings. I find out she has 3.
Ok, I have 7 tricks, partner has shown 5 guaranteed and she has at least 3 more hcp, and possibly 4. If she has ANY Queen, we have 13 winners.
If she has 3 jacks, then we have very good odds, even if one of them is in diamonds. I'd now bid 7N, to ensure the lead comes around to partner. Opening leader is very likely to lead into one of my partner's tenaces, and if not we have some squeeze possibilities and finally we'll have at least one finesse option. Add to this the reality that I will have given the opps NO shape info re my hand for the lead nor, more importantly, declarer's hand for the discarding on diamonds, and I'd guessestimate that (provided diamonds run) grand is 90% or so.
Meanwhile, grand in a 4-4 spade fit is seldom going to be better. Play around with 20 counts for opener with spades and you won't find a lot of hands where playing in spades is better than notrump, and the opposite is true as soon as you remove the spade Q from partner, let alone the spade QJ. Yes, I know my plan requires diamonds to run, and maybe partner is 4-2 (as he was) without the diamond J. But most of the time he has 3+ and/or the J and most of the rest of the time diamonds run. Meanwhile, on some of the hands where they don't, the hand short in diamonds has 4 trump, negating our ability to ruff the suit good anyway.
I had thought about playing 7♦ since against double dummy defence diamonds is more likely to make due to the additional declarer play options available in a trump contract (ruffing to isolate squeeze menaces, various trump squeezes, etc) but think that the chances that 7N is flat out cold + the chances of a lead into a tenace on a blind auction make notrump best.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari