BBO Discussion Forums: Good contract, but I dunno which line to play - BBO Discussion Forums

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Good contract, but I dunno which line to play

#21 User is offline   BillHiggin 

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Posted 2013-June-17, 05:52

View Postchasetb, on 2013-June-09, 22:20, said:

Without knowing Hearts are 5-0, the slightly better play is that Diamonds break 4-3 (63% versus 50%). After finding that out, is it still better than the finesse?

Speaking only to the odds question:
The odds of diamonds splitting 4-3 have now dropped to 51.65% (West is now more likely to hold diamond length)
The odds of the finesse have also dropped. East is less likely to hold any specific black card - the odds have dropped to 38.1% for the spade Queen to be onside.

The diamond split is still significantly more likely than the finesse.

(edit) Note that these figures ignore the card discarded by West. They only reflect the knowledge that West's 13 cards came from a set of 14 black cards and 7 diamonds.
You must know the rules well - so that you may break them wisely!
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#22 User is offline   cargobeep 

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Posted 2013-June-18, 11:33

I don't see what the issue with this hand is. As long as diamonds break 4-3, I've made the contract. If not, I try a squeeze play.
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