[HeartA]

fred, on Jan 7 2005, 12:29 AM, said:

HeartA, on Jan 7 2005, 02:21 AM, said:

Oops, we post almost simultaneouly.  Actually, to cash Ace first covers 4 cases: East holds stiff K or Q, or either side has KQ doubleton.  While to play small toward dummy first covers West with stiff T or Tx (Tx has two cases, since we have two small cards outside) and KT and QT.  To play small toward dummy is slightly better.

So if you play small toward the dummy and LHO plays the 10, you cover with the J and RHO wins, what are you going to do next?

Assuming this happens are you sure you can make it in all of the cases you mention?

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

Assume best defense. When I play small toward dummy, I would play J back if I don't see 10. West also knows this line, he would play 10 with 10x to give South a headache. While with QT (KT), West will also play 10. I don't have a clear answer.

Fred, are you suggesting that to cash Ace is better?

[fred]

No - I am suggesting that you are trying to have your cake and eat it too if you think you can pick up both 10x and honor doubleton on your left (as I thought your previous post implied).

The fact that you can't do this has other implications that I don't think that anyone has properly expressed yet (but I have not read all of the posts carefully so I am not sure about this).

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[Free]

fred, on Jan 7 2005, 02:55 AM, said:

Free, on Jan 7 2005, 01:45 AM, said:

fred, on Jan 7 2005, 02:36 AM, said:

And what do you do if LHO plays an honor on the first round?

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

Small in dummy

Hmmm, still try to drop the T under my Jack I guess

And if LHO follows with the 10 on the first round?

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

I think finessing (letting the 9 run I mean) then gives the best chances, since you can handle a 1-4 split now. But if that sneaky LHO has KT or QT, he played his T quite nicely. I guess if I ever have such hand in defense, I now know what to do

[Fluffy]

I've always though this was low towards J987, hoping for H10 at the left, but now I realice it covers only 3 cases, K10, Q10 and either 10x or 10xx (at left), you ahve to guess later, wich doesn't look promising.

Cashing the Ace covers 10xx, K10xx, Q10xx and KQ at left wich is an improvement already.

I don't see any difference between cashing the ace and running the 9, you just hope for a honnor at right to show. If you run and los eot a honnor the only case that wins is KQ bare at left anyway.

[luis]

I'm not sure if this is right

I play low to the 9
If RHO plays the T I play the J if that is covered I run the 8 next
If RHO plays the Q or K I play the Ace next (restricted choice)
If RHO plays low I put the 9 from dummy
If the 9 loses to the T I play low to the J next
If the 9 loses to the K or Q I play the J from dummy trying to pin the Ten

Maybe I'm not 100% right about the restricted choice porition....

[luke warm]

imo it seems to be impossible to make if rho has H,10,x i think you have to play as if he doesn't... neither can you make if rho holds 10,x because lho holds K,Q,x and will rise on first trick... you can't make against H,x on the right because lho will then duck from H,10,x

so to me it seems you have to play in a way that makes the most against distributions that give you a chance to make *at all*... that means playing lho for either: H,10 or H,x or 10,x (it seems to me that you lose against any other distribution)

so low to the board... if lho plays an honor, lead the J next time to pin his 10... if lho plays the 10, play the J and then play the ace next time (it either wins else you were down all the time - i think)

[han]

For the moment I agree with Jlall's solution.

[fred]

J987

A432

Jlall is indeed correct. The best you can do is to plan to pick up the following holdings with LHO:

10x
KQ
10

Although several people thought of the possibility of the 10 falsecard from 10x (well done to even consider this in my view!), as far as I can tell nobody mentioned what a bizarre play this is.

To me this falsecard flies in the face of one of the basic concepts of card play that we have all become programmed to understand. To me it is amazing to think that playing the 10 from 10x with J987 is the dummy is actually a good play!

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[Fluffy]

ok I messed up, somehoe I forgot to remembe 10x is not a case but 2.

Anyway, I don't undestand why lowto 9 is better than the Ace, both seems to succed in 4 cases:

Ace succeds against:

K1065 - Q
Q1065 - K
KQ - 1065
1065 - KQ

While small to 9 and ace succeds against

10 - KQ65
105 - KQ6
106 - KQ5
KQ - 1065


Of course not taking into account that LHO didn't lead its 4th best on our suit .

[mpefritz]

Fluffy, on Jan 7 2005, 10:41 PM, said:

ok I messed up, somehoe I forgot to remembe 10x is not a case but 2.

Anyway, I don't undestand why lowto 9 is better than the Ace, both seems to succed in 4 cases:

Ace succeds against:

K1065 - Q
Q1065 - K
KQ - 1065
1065 - KQ

While small to 9 and ace succeds against

10 - KQ65
105 - KQ6
106 - KQ5
KQ - 1065


Of course not taking into account that LHO didn't lead its 4th best on our suit .

While you can count the same NUMBER of combinations for which each line of play works, you really need to factor in the likelihood of each particular combination AND the likelihood a particualr player will play a certain card from that holding.

Again, in general, each individual 3-2 split is more likely that each individual 4-1 split, which in turn is more likely that each individual 5-0 split.

In your scenario, after cancelling out equal splits, you are left comparing a 4-1 split to a 3-2 split. The specific 3-2 split is a priori is more likely than the specific 4-1 split. So "small to 9, then A" wins over "A, small to 9".

fritz

p.s. I have not fully analyzed this combination, but am replying to this particular question.

[Stephen Tu]

Quote

Anyway, I don't undestand why lowto 9 is better than the Ace, both seems to succed in 4 cases

All cases are not created equal. Each particular 3-2 break represents 3.39% of hands, but a 4-1 break only represents 2.83%. So the intrafinesse is a sliver better.