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Your lead 100% either way

#1 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2013-May-27, 03:12


It is rare that you know 100% of the matchpoints are at stake but that was the case here. Both pairs were on around 50%, about 4 boards from the end of a national final. The explanations were confident (and, it transpired, correct) and the auction quick. Your go.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#2 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2013-May-27, 04:24

I think it calls for a heart lead. With a choice of two equal leads, I'd tend choose any other suit over hearts, because partner didn't double 3. Hence a heart lead is the only lead that could be called "unusual".
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#3 User is offline   the_clown 

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Posted 2013-May-27, 06:08

I would lead a spade. Its a common agreement that double of 3NT asks for a spade lead, so maybe thats what partner wanted. Furthermore it is right to lead the longest suit if partner has an ace, (since if partner has the ace in our short suit it is likely they didnt have 13 tricks anyway.)
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#4 User is offline   Antrax 

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Posted 2013-May-27, 06:12

Why would they be off an ace here?
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#5 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2013-May-27, 07:26

For me this double asks for a heart, so I lead one. So why then is my hand reaching for the 3?

I remember a similar hand where the rationale was that if partner has a major suit ace, a diamond may concede only the twelfth trick, but if partner has the diamond ace, they have 14 tricks on top.
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#6 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2013-May-27, 08:36

View Postgnasher, on 2013-May-27, 04:24, said:

I think it calls for a heart lead. With a choice of two equal leads, I'd tend choose any other suit over hearts, because partner didn't double 3. Hence a heart lead is the only lead that could be called "unusual".


The auction pretty much precludes p having the ability to x 3h so I do not think
the non x of 3h should b taken into consideration. P either feels he has it set
no matter what you lead OR they are trying to get a specific lead and the only
way to get a specific lead is to ask for a heart (IMO)
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#7 User is offline   biggerclub 

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Posted 2013-May-27, 14:10

I don't see how a heart lead can call for a x (unusual lead). That trick is always there. I mean, assuming that 3 hearts is hearts and a slam try.

I am not sure what to lead, but I definitely feel like (unless someone has psyched) the Heart Ace is safe for the defense regardless of what is led.

Partner is asking me to think a little deeper, but I haven't solved the puzzle yet.

4c gerber? Or 3Hs some kind of convention? Maybe that's the answer. I did not x/lead direct over gerber (or H's) but if you lead it now, we win. Still --

Is partner wiggling her ring finger?

Joking aside, I might be able to solve this puzzle with the explanations attached . . . . But it makes no sense to me that OPPs would bid to 7NT missing an A -- are they in a desperate "top or bottom" situation. And it makes no sense that they are even trying for a grand with 33 HCP max, let alone getting there in NT with no void to ruff/save.
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#8 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2013-May-27, 14:24

View Postbiggerclub, on 2013-May-27, 14:10, said:

I don't see how a heart lead can call for a x (unusual lead). That trick is always there. I mean, assuming that 3 hearts is hearts and a slam try.


You have to click on the bidding diagram as if you were on BBO. The auction is not what you think, or rather it does not mean what you think.
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#9 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2013-May-27, 16:21

I led a heart, costing -1710, against +300 for the diamond lead, as partner had the ace. This was worse than my worst aggregate lead to date (-720 against +700 in the London Super League) so my leads are getting worse. I have vowed never to play again in the Hubert Phillips (a UK competition with aggregate scoring). Dummy had Ax AJ xx AKxxxxx opposite KQJ KQTx Qxxx Qx. I think the opponent was annoyed by the previous board, where he had scored badly, and just had a punt. He thought it was a "five or seven" hand, which I suppose it was.

Two very strong players who had not previously seen the hand, Hallberg and Burn, found the diamond lead. PhilKing almost did. I considered it, but was worried about some layout with Ax opposite Qxx with otherwise 12 tricks. I now think a diamond is right.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#10 User is offline   biggerclub 

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Posted 2013-May-27, 17:35

View PostPhilKing, on 2013-May-27, 14:24, said:

You have to click on the bidding diagram as if you were on BBO. The auction is not what you think, or rather it does not mean what you think.


Then I would expect p to be calling for a H lead. Unusual because P could have asked for it before but didn't.
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#11 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2013-May-27, 23:57

View Postlamford, on 2013-May-27, 16:21, said:

I led a heart, costing -1710, against +300 for the diamond lead, as partner had the ace. This was worse than my worst aggregate lead to date (-720 against +700 in the London Super League) so my leads are getting worse. I have vowed never to play again in the Hubert Phillips (a UK competition with aggregate scoring). Dummy had Ax AJ xx AKxxxxx opposite KQJ KQTx Qxxx Qx. I think the opponent was annoyed by the previous board, where he had scored badly, and just had a punt. He thought it was a "five or seven" hand, which I suppose it was.

Two very strong players who had not previously seen the hand, Hallberg and Burn, found the diamond lead. PhilKing almost did. I considered it, but was worried about some layout with Ax opposite Qxx with otherwise 12 tricks. I now think a diamond is right.


Why did partner double? Shouldn't a double ask for a special lead instead of turning 50 into 100, just because I have an ace?
Kind Regards

Roland


Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
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#12 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2013-May-28, 04:38

View PostCodo, on 2013-May-27, 23:57, said:

Why did partner double? Shouldn't a double ask for a special lead instead of turning 50 into 100, just because I have an ace?


In this exact scenario, some people of my acquaintance play double simply as "they are missing an ace - you work out where, or which is is more likely to go to sleep".

On that basis a diamond is the percentage action on the grounds that it may not be fatal when you miss. I don't care for this interpretation of double myself, since I have never seen it work. But doubling for a heart lead does work when you have the hand for it and suits my preferred non-genius approach.
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#13 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2013-May-28, 07:47

View PostPhilKing, on 2013-May-28, 04:38, said:

In this exact scenario, some people of my acquaintance play double simply as "they are missing an ace - you work out where, or which is is more likely to go to sleep".

On that basis a diamond is the percentage action on the grounds that it may not be fatal when you miss. I don't care for this interpretation of double myself, since I have never seen it work. But doubling for a heart lead does work when you have the hand for it and suits my preferred non-genius approach.


We had never discussed a double of 7NT, so all I could do was alert my partner to the fact that I had an ace so that if he had a meaningful choice he could try to go active. If he didn't find my ace we were still getting a bottom for 7NT= missing an ace.

They did have 14 or more tricks outside of diamonds, but anyway I don't think they heard anything, because it was a barometer final and I would have heard it too.
I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones -- Albert Einstein
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