Are there any benefit of sitting in 1st/3rd seat? and by how much?
#2
Posted 2004-December-30, 05:06
- In 1st seat you have only 1/3 chance your partner has the good hand, while in 2nd seat you have 1/2.
- In 3rd seat you already know partner passed and won't go anywhere (unless you open really solid and he passed with a nice 12 count). 3rd seat however is less efficient, because many people play very light openings there, and most psychs happen in such situations. I wouldn't have my first partner telling me: "3rd seat everything goes"
- In 4th seat you need a solid opening imo, otherwise you give the contract away and you get a negative score instead of a 0.
#3
Posted 2004-December-30, 12:58
"100% certain that many excellent players would disagree. This is far more about style/judgment than right vs. wrong." Fred
"Hysterical Raisins again - this time on the World stage, not just the ACBL" mycroft
#4
Posted 2004-December-30, 13:44
1st seat is good, but not quite as much as 3rd. But uou get to establish the tempo of the auction right away.
2nd seat is like playing the big blind. Big 'variance' plays generally don't work.
#5
Posted 2005-January-03, 06:38
#6
Posted 2005-January-03, 12:51
If anyone on this forum is good at running this kind of simulation, I'm sure everyone would be interested in seeing the results.
Have GIB or Jack run a team match of a few thousand hands with the computer playing in every seat. At one table North is always dealer and East is always dealer at the other table. This has the effect of one team always having the advantage of being dealer on every hand. How much does this team win by?
#7
Posted 2005-January-04, 06:06
#8
Posted 2005-January-05, 04:31
I have simulated 200 hands using Jack with two sets of identical hands except that in the first set North is always dealer and in the second set East is always dealer.
After 200 hands the score is 329 - 460 in favour of 2nd/4th over 1st/3rd.
I have no idea what is going on here.
The average 0.655 Imps per board to 2nd seat.
The sample standard deviation is 6.01 Imps per board.
This is getting close to 95% significant that if 1st seat has an advantage we would not be seeing this data.
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
#9
Posted 2005-January-05, 05:45
However, I think if you would give the program a VERY frequent 2-level structure, the results might change in favor of 1st/3rd seat, but I'm not sure.
#10
Posted 2005-January-05, 09:34
Free, on Jan 5 2005, 11:45 AM, said:
However, I think if you would give the program a VERY frequent 2-level structure, the results might change in favor of 1st/3rd seat, but I'm not sure.
If your idea for the cause is correct, frequent two bids won't make so much difference. Second hand opneings will be less frequenct, but when they do occur, the inferences about first hand weakness will be more significant.
#11
Posted 2005-January-05, 09:55
#12
Posted 2005-January-05, 10:12
2♣ 1 suiter
2♦ majors
2♥ spades and a minor
2♠ minors
All force a response so opener has a chance to rebid with a strong hand.
#13
Posted 2005-January-05, 10:32
bestguru, on Jan 5 2005, 05:12 PM, said:
2♣ 1 suiter
2♦ majors
2♥ spades and a minor
2♠ minors
All force a response so opener has a chance to rebid with a strong hand.
Yes, but 2nd seat has 2 rounds to bid when the opening was weak (most frequent)...
#14
Posted 2005-January-05, 13:05
Free, on Jan 6 2005, 04:55 AM, said:
I do have the scores and I can potentially get the results but not the bidding or play. Unfortunately it is quite onerous to get the results. But I might be able do that (but not the bidding and play) for some of the extreme results.
Deal N Dlr E Dlr Diff IMPs 85 -100 1190 -1290 -15 44 -400 500 -900 -14 63 -800 100 -900 -14 35 -650 200 -850 -13 95 -100 750 -850 -13 196 -200 660 -860 -13 34 -100 600 -700 -12 42 -100 620 -720 -12 90 -600 100 -700 -12 99 -50 590 -640 -12 103 -100 630 -730 -12 122 -100 600 -700 -12 127 -100 620 -720 -12 130 -100 620 -720 -12 46 -50 480 -530 -11 53 130 660 -530 -11 75 -100 400 -500 -11 112 -100 400 -500 -11 156 -480 50 -530 -11 169 -100 420 -520 -11 24 -500 -50 -450 -10 97 -420 50 -470 -10 105 -630 -180 -450 -10 107 -430 50 -480 -10 179 -50 400 -450 -10 186 -630 -240 -390 -9 61 -200 140 -340 -8 89 100 420 -320 -8 48 200 500 -300 -7 163 -170 100 -270 -7 178 -140 130 -270 -7 18 -420 -170 -250 -6 25 -150 110 -260 -6 115 -50 170 -220 -6 162 -90 170 -260 -6 182 180 430 -250 -6 189 -110 130 -240 -6 49 -50 140 -190 -5 58 -90 110 -200 -5 70 -50 140 -190 -5 106 -100 110 -210 -5 167 -100 110 -210 -5 177 -150 50 -200 -5 41 -650 -500 -150 -4 168 -100 50 -150 -4 176 -50 110 -160 -4 6 100 200 -100 -3 26 -200 -100 -100 -3 30 -400 -300 -100 -3 74 80 170 -90 -3 129 -170 -50 -120 -3 132 0 100 -100 -3 33 50 100 -50 -2 51 460 510 -50 -2 59 420 480 -60 -2 9 400 430 -30 -1 11 -460 -430 -30 -1 23 650 680 -30 -1 56 420 450 -30 -1 65 400 430 -30 -1 68 -660 -630 -30 -1 69 -510 -480 -30 -1 71 620 650 -30 -1 131 -630 -600 -30 -1 133 620 650 -30 -1 136 -140 -110 -30 -1 145 -450 -420 -30 -1 149 -430 -400 -30 -1 155 200 230 -30 -1 173 -680 -650 -30 -1 191 680 710 -30 -1 195 -690 -660 -30 -1 198 90 110 -20 -1 2 -90 -80 -10 0 4 -100 -100 0 0 10 -1460 -1460 0 0 14 -460 -460 0 0 15 -200 -200 0 0 16 450 450 0 0 21 650 650 0 0 31 690 690 0 0 32 -710 -710 0 0 37 -200 -200 0 0 39 -200 -200 0 0 40 450 450 0 0 47 620 620 0 0 50 620 620 0 0 52 170 170 0 0 54 -620 -620 0 0 64 -650 -650 0 0 67 110 110 0 0 77 -630 -630 0 0 78 -920 -920 0 0 81 100 100 0 0 82 -200 -200 0 0 83 -50 -50 0 0 84 -90 -90 0 0 87 100 100 0 0 91 450 450 0 0 93 660 660 0 0 96 -150 -140 -10 0 101 -90 -90 0 0 108 110 110 0 0 113 -100 -100 0 0 116 630 630 0 0 119 110 110 0 0 120 50 50 0 0 123 -50 -50 0 0 124 -300 -300 0 0 125 660 660 0 0 126 -490 -490 0 0 128 480 480 0 0 134 -140 -140 0 0 135 -120 -120 0 0 137 -600 -600 0 0 139 450 450 0 0 140 170 170 0 0 143 -150 -150 0 0 144 -50 -50 0 0 146 -100 -100 0 0 150 120 120 0 0 152 -170 -170 0 0 154 600 600 0 0 157 -110 -110 0 0 159 -140 -140 0 0 160 430 430 0 0 161 420 420 0 0 164 -140 -140 0 0 165 -450 -450 0 0 166 -680 -680 0 0 170 -1370 -1370 0 0 171 -100 -100 0 0 175 -460 -460 0 0 180 100 100 0 0 184 -430 -430 0 0 187 140 140 0 0 190 400 400 0 0 192 140 140 0 0 193 -450 -450 0 0 199 -90 -90 0 0 200 -450 -450 0 0 5 -130 -150 20 1 12 -420 -450 30 1 13 650 620 30 1 28 620 600 20 1 29 710 680 30 1 43 480 450 30 1 73 -140 -170 30 1 80 -600 -630 30 1 88 -100 -140 40 1 109 630 600 30 1 110 90 50 40 1 117 90 50 40 1 121 480 450 30 1 197 -430 -460 30 1 57 -50 -100 50 2 62 -100 -150 50 2 94 -460 -520 60 2 118 -50 -100 50 2 142 200 150 50 2 148 690 620 70 2 158 -450 -500 50 2 172 150 100 50 2 174 -450 -510 60 2 7 -100 -200 100 3 17 380 280 100 3 36 200 100 100 3 72 50 -50 100 3 76 -90 -200 110 3 138 210 110 100 3 60 100 -100 200 5 66 110 -100 210 5 147 -300 -500 200 5 20 120 -120 240 6 38 100 -140 240 6 104 450 200 250 6 1 110 -170 280 7 98 500 200 300 7 181 -130 -400 270 7 27 450 100 350 8 79 150 -200 350 8 45 -200 -620 420 9 100 100 -300 400 9 102 500 110 390 9 151 -200 -620 420 9 19 420 -50 470 10 22 -140 -620 480 10 111 50 -420 470 10 114 600 150 450 10 188 630 150 480 10 194 300 -140 440 10 3 450 -50 500 11 92 620 50 570 11 141 750 150 600 12 153 100 -600 700 12 8 500 -300 800 13 86 140 -650 790 13 183 130 -620 750 13 55 750 -200 950 14 185 1210 200 1010 14
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
#15
Posted 2005-January-05, 13:07
Thanks for starting the simulations.
What convention card are you using for Jack? Maybe it should be done twice, once with a conservative approach and once with an aggressive one.
Actually with only 200 deals, we're not quite at the 95% significance level, but it's getting close. I think we need at least 1000 deals.
Tysen
#16
Posted 2005-January-05, 14:00
tysen2k, on Jan 6 2005, 08:07 AM, said:
Thanks for starting the simulations.
What convention card are you using for Jack? Maybe it should be done twice, once with a conservative approach and once with an aggressive one.
Actually with only 200 deals, we're not quite at the 95% significance level, but it's getting close. I think we need at least 1000 deals.
Tysen
Yes I said almost 95%. I calculated this as the tail probability 0.061588943
I am not 100% sure of the answers to these questions - I will tell you what I did (and why).
I have 1000 deals ready to analyze.
For standard play Jack's scoring options seem to be Total points, Rubber or Chicago.
Therefore to get an IMP score I set up a tournament with the 1000 hands. Actually 2000 hands since each deal is played twice with a different dealer each time. Also there were in fact more than one tournament since Jack would not cope with one 2000 board tournament.
Jack ran and created a result for each of these 2000 hands - I think I still have some to run. When this runs in the background I am not sure what convention card it uses but I did not choose the random convention card option so I presume it uses the one that I have loaded for Jack.
This is a brief summary of my convention:
4-card majors
weak 1NT
multi-2♦ and Weak two suiters
non-solid pre-empts
aggressive general bidding and competitive auctions
conservative towards game and penalty doubles
To get the results out of GIB I had to replay all of the hands in a teams match (tournament) and see what the other table result was. I did this quickly by passing in every board and manually recording the results. I cannot see an automatic way of finding the result or any way of seeing the bidding and play at the other table and even the list of results that came up would not let me cut and paste.
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
#17
Posted 2005-January-05, 14:13
#18
Posted 2005-January-05, 14:40
TIA
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
#19
Posted 2005-January-06, 15:12
helene_t, on Jan 3 2005, 07:38 AM, said:
Good comment, except I disagree with the "especially preempting". It seems to me that the ranges for overcalling in direct seat or in balacing seat are much wider over 1-level openings than over preempts. In some ways, low level openings (like 1C) are excellent preempts.
- hrothgar
#20
Posted 2005-January-08, 20:58
Here is the doc I found. maybe you will have more luck with it than me.
http://www.kolumbus...._htm/gibdos.htm

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