[winkle]

Matchpoints, 4th chair, red on white:

♠ K8
♥ KJT2
♦ K94
♣ KJ98

♠ 2
♥ A3
♦ AQT753
♣ AT52

West: 2♠-X-3♠-6♦-PO

Lefty leads the ♠Q to the king and ace. Righty returns a spade and you ruff. Trumps are 2-2. How do you play?

[Phil]

How can it not be right to play ♥, ♥, ruff?

I expect we will have some decisions later, and trying to figure out if LHO preempted on a 3 count....

[PhilKing]

Feels like lefty would have led a stiff ♣ or ♥, so he is 6322 some way round - most likely 6322 precisely. I'll bang off a few trumps, but I intend to play the ♣AK and fall back on the heart Qxx onside.

Essentially, I am taking a 20% equity hit in clubs when West is 6223 in order to have a second decent horse in the race.

It feels pretty close but I'm guessing this is a 2% better.

[gszes]

Phil, on 2013-March-19, 12:38, said:

How can it not be right to play ♥, ♥, ruff?

I expect we will have some decisions later, and trying to figure out if LHO preempted on a 3 count....

this definitely looks like the best way to determine how to play the clubs. lho presumably started with
six spades and has followed to 2 diamonds. ruffing out the hearts should give us an exact picture
of both opps distribution. Who knows, maybe we will find one of the other is a heavy favorite to hold the
club Q for ex lets say lho follows to 2 hearts so we "know" their distribution is 6223 which not only makes
them the favorite to hold the club Q but an even heavier favorite than that due to opening 2s surely not
"on a 3 count"

[Lord Molyb]

Opponents have 10 ♠s, meaning RHO has 4 unless LHO pre-empted on a 7 card suit.
If he had a weak hand, wouldn't he bid 4♠?

[PhilKing]

.

[PhilKing]

Lord Molyb, on 2013-March-19, 18:52, said:

Opponents have 10 ♠s, meaning RHO has 4 unless LHO pre-empted on a 7 card suit.
If he had a weak hand, wouldn't he bid 4♠?

I would, but I am not East. Maybe there are only 12 spades in the pack, maybe he is scared of going for 800. But I'm guessing spades are 6-4, whatever the reason.

[winkle]

I forgot to add that righty had the ♦J, if it mattered to anyone.

[PhilKing]

I think we can heavily discount the chance that East is 4522 at this vulnerability. Since West would almost certainly lead a singleton, that means that his shape is highly likely to be specifically 6322 with 3 hearts. On that basis the calculations for the two lines are as follows:

1. Playing on hearts to make sure.

We find out West is, shock, 6322 and play East for the club queen. Chances of success - 60%.

2. We bang down the top clubs.

The queen drops 40% of the time. When it does not we play West for Qxx in hearts (3/7 x 60) which is 25.7% giving us a combo chance of 65.7%.

Since East may have his hand missorted, the odds are probably a bit closer, but if East would always bid 4 with decent shape and West is a strict adherent to a five-point minimum for a weak two, the chances for line 2 are 100%.

[winkle]

This was from the Platinum Pairs. Lefty had ♠QJxxxx ♥Qxx ♦xx ♣Qx, so finessing the club through length fails, but the club drop + heart finesse line would've succeeded. Almost everyone who was in 6♦ went down.