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Obvious lead? An everyday situation

Poll: Which card would you lead? (22 member(s) have cast votes)

Which card would you lead?

  1. A (4 votes [18.18%])

    Percentage of vote: 18.18%

  2. K (3 votes [13.64%])

    Percentage of vote: 13.64%

  3. J (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  4. 7 (12 votes [54.55%])

    Percentage of vote: 54.55%

  5. 2 (3 votes [13.64%])

    Percentage of vote: 13.64%

  6. Heart (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  7. Diamond (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  8. Club (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

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#1 User is offline   bridgeboy 

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  Posted 2004-December-25, 04:18

Hi all,

At imps, vul against not.

You sit West and hold:

AKJ72
76
854
432

South Opens 1NT and North raises to 3NT.

Your lead?

(You play 4th best leads. A asking for unblocking/count. K for attitude)

Would it be different at mps? Or if North invites with 3C (long club suit) and South accepts?

Thanks all.
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#2 User is offline   flytoox 

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Posted 2004-December-25, 05:20

Certainly not obvious. Either honour or smallcard lead could work here. The problem with low lead is declarer may collect 9 tricks immediately. I think I will cash A first. This will lose only if spade is 33 between dummy and declarer and the q is in dummy, or pd has qx of spades.


Regards

Hongjun
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#3 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2004-December-25, 08:50

my only entry is in partner's hand... i lead the 7 and hope he can get in and lead thru declarer
"Paul Krugman is a stupid person's idea of what a smart person sounds like." Newt Gingrich (paraphrased)
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#4 User is offline   Flame 

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Posted 2004-December-25, 11:19

At imps 7 spade, at mp the A.
if north show a long club suit the A of spade since this 3c invite and accpete increase the of them having 9 tricks and us having 5 which needed to be taken before then get the hand.
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#5 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2004-December-26, 07:48

With a well-trusting partner I should lead 7, however, imo the 7 is quite high so I might chose 2...
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
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#6 User is offline   beatrix45 

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Posted 2004-December-29, 20:36

You have to lead a spade, and you don't have any entries. Spade K only wins when partner has 4 small spades, and the queen falls under the ace or king. Plus you have to guess to continue spades after trick one.
Trixi
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#7 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2004-December-29, 23:24

Spade honor wins whenever:

1. We can engineer a cashout when spades are 5-4 (doubtful, but possible, since there is probably an interior block).

2. We drop stiff Q, or Q dub.

3. We figure out a great switch at T2; attention Obvious Shifters!

4. We don't blow trick 9 at T1.

Low spade works when:

1. Spades are specifically 5=2=2=4, 5=3=2=3 or 5=4=2=2 (with the Qx) clockwise around the table.

2. We need to untangle the suit (pard has Qx for instance). Against this, we may have a disaster when pard finesses with Q8x and dummy holding the Txx.

Either works when spades are 5=2=3=3. However, low spade gives up trick (possibly 9th); high spade allows a shift and wait.

Low spade puts all your eggs in one or two baskets. High spade gives you 3 x or 4x ways to beat it.
"Phil" on BBO
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