[32519]

The actual hand and bidding:

---

The players who shied away from the slam scored well. South led the ♣A which removed any guessing for declarer in the suit. But there is no way to avoid the ♦ loser as well.
So the question is, were E/W just unlucky or should West avoid the slam try with such a poor holding in the ♦ suit?

[Cyberyeti]

4♠ is just terrible, deserves Ax, Qxxxxx, Jxx, AQ where 5 is too many and the diamond losers are going nowhere even if they don't lead one.

[rhm]

Most people check for controls and (sometimes) on an adequate trump suit and believe 12 tricks will somehow be available.
Yet tricks are the most important ingredient for a slam. West does not know where 12 tricks will be coming from.
It is not that there are 2 inescapable losers, there are nowhere 12 tricks, which is not the same.

Note, that there are nowhere 12 tricks, even so

a) East turns up unexpectedly with a sixth heart
b) Neither does East hold a minimum or sub-minimum opening.

I think a forcing trump raise (Jacoby) by West fits the bill nicely.
If East admits to shortage in diamonds (exchange East minor suit holdings), West would know where tricks would be coming from.
Otherwise West should cooperate in slam investigation, but leave it to East and should not himself bypass game in hearts

Do you still believe this to be bad luck?

Rainer Herrmann

[Antrax]

Yeah, but do you avoid the slam going a different out? My partner and I would still get there, just more slowly.
[edit]
Meant as a reply to Cyberyeti

[Cyberyeti]

Antrax, on 2013-February-06, 05:30, said:

Yeah, but do you avoid the slam going a different out? My partner and I would still get there, just more slowly.
[edit]
Meant as a reply to Cyberyeti

On the hand I posted (Ax, Qxxxxx, Jxx, AQ)

1♥(4+ cards)-2N(4 card limit+ raise unlimited)-3♣(ostensibly LSGT but there is no good bid with this hand)-3♠-3N(spade control for us)-4♣-4♥

Both sides show no diamond control so stop at 4♥

The 3♣ bid is the best of a bad bunch, I'd like to bid 4♥ (enough to bid game but no more), but partner wouldn't expect 6 trumps and 2 side aces for that bid, partner needs no more than xxxx, AKxx, x, Kxxx to make a slam (we don't splinter on this initially), so I have to choose between 3♣/3♦ and Jxx is not enough in the diamond suit.

On the actual hand 1♥-2N-3♦-3♠-4♣-4♠-5♥-?

Looks like too much danger of 2 losers here. Partner has 2 aces, the ♥Q and almost always 3+ diamonds. If he's missing the A♠ you could be off the first 2 tricks, he either has A♣ or a stiff, if he's missing A♦ he could easily hold something like KJx(x) where you have a lot of losers and little prospect of parking them, in fact it's difficult to see say a 13-14 count without extreme shape with 3+ diamonds where 6 is good.

[billw55]

Why would anyone bid slam with these two hands? Just bid the game that is there, and play your best. If by fortune or guile you make 12 tricks, it is still a good matchpoint score.

[Antrax]

Well, 10+ card fit, fitting ♠K, all suits controlled, basically. I mean, on the actual hand, change ♦J to Q and slam makes.

[billw55]

Antrax, on 2013-February-06, 07:15, said:

Well, 10+ card fit, fitting ♠K, all suits controlled, basically. I mean, on the actual hand, change ♦J to Q and slam makes.

OK, make that change, but don't look at the opposing hands. Do you want to bid slam?

[manudude03]

On this hand, 1H-2NT-3C (singleton or void) is probably enough to turn West right off and bid 4H which should end the auction. It probably won't be better than a finesse as long as East isn't so strong that he can move himself anyway (I'd certainly bid again with AQJx Qxxxx AKJ x).

[Cthulhu D]

billw55, on 2013-February-06, 07:29, said:

OK, make that change, but don't look at the opposing hands. Do you want to bid slam?

Doesn't it really come down to the duplicated club shortness, which you should be able to find out about below the level of game?

[Antrax]

No, but I couldn't avoid it even with without that change, for the reason rhm mentioned: in my auction we would force to game, show control of all suits and mistakenly think that it should be enough.

[Cyberyeti]

Antrax, on 2013-February-06, 07:15, said:

Well, 10+ card fit, fitting ♠K, all suits controlled, basically. I mean, on the actual hand, change ♦J to Q and slam makes.

If you want to bid slams on 2/2 finesses be my guest, it's very unlikely to be better than a finesse unless E is huge once you know he has 3+ diamonds.

[Cthulhu D]

Antrax, on 2013-February-06, 07:50, said:

No, but I couldn't avoid it even with without that change, for the reason rhm mentioned: in my auction we would force to game, show control of all suits and mistakenly think that it should be enough.

I am just as curious as you are, and am gonna ask my partner what he would do with openers hand. I think if you do find out about the club shortness someone is going to devalue their hand to a bare minimum, and the other guy doesn't have any extras. I think RHM's broader point is though that to make slam you need three things:

A) Decent trumps
B) Controls to ensure you're not off two quick losers
C) A source of tricks such as a cross ruff, a secondary fit or just a huge pile of HCP

And merely finding out about A and B doesn't really get you there. I guess, for example ,I'm going to have an auction like this:

1H - 2NT; Std - Limit Raise Plus
3C - 3D; Minimum - do you have a shortness
4C ; Yeah, club shortness - now responder can see the values are duplicated and nothing is really happening, even with controls you're looking at 28ish HCP with no ruffing values or a secondary fit. However, we define a minimum as 'less than an ace more than a minimum opener' so there is a reasonable chance that we'll get something like this instead

1H - 2NT; Std - Limit Raise Plus
3D - 3H; Good hand with unspecified shortness - Which shortness?
4C ; Clubs - and now responder has to make the call, and that could be awkward and may very well end poorly.

[Mbodell]

Antrax, on 2013-February-06, 05:30, said:

Yeah, but do you avoid the slam going a different out? My partner and I would still get there, just more slowly.
[edit]
Meant as a reply to Cyberyeti

I don't think you should reach the slam, but obviously you could. Let's say the auction starts:
1♥-2nt (std Jacoby)
3♣ (stiff or void in clubs)

at this point if W counts points outside ♣ he gets 11, and arguably he doesn't have a game force and should just bid 4♥.

Let's say instead W feels strong and wants to cue, there are a few ways this could go:

3♥ (agree and not minimum, but missing ♦ cue) - 3♠ (spade cue and implied diamond cue)
4♣ (club cue) - 4♥ (already showed something in diamonds, nothing else to show)
all pass

Or
3♥-3♠
4♣-4♦ (say we rebid diamonds to show the ace or something)
4♥

W still shouldn't force on as needs more from E (either the club A or more diamond honors, or something).

Some people might play a version of serious or non serious 3nt that might come up to (especially if W cues spades instead of 3♥ over 3♣). Then the auction could be:
3♣-3♠-3nt
or
3♣-3nt

either of which should bring a 4♥ call.