dcrc2, on 2012-December-11, 02:55, said:
OK, I was hoping someone would suggest that! So you cash ♣AK (both following small) and lead the ♠J. Everything is easy if East covers, but today he doesn't. Are you letting the J run?
Give West
♣Jxxx to create a challenge for the contract.
If West is
♠xxxx,
♥xxxx,
♦x,
♣Jxxx you must run the
♠J.
If West is
♠Qxxxx,
♥xxx,
♦x,
♣Jxxx you must put up the
♠king.
On this alone I would play for the first layout, partly because on the second hand East has not much of an opening bid not to mention his diamond rebid and an initial Pass or 3
♦ preempt might have appealed to him instead and partly West might have scraped up a 1
♠ response with the second hand and also might have discarded a heart in preference to a spade.
Running the
♠J risks down three, while putting up the
♠K risks only down one.
Also the second hand is a priory roughly twice as likely as the first one.
However there is a further consideration:
If clubs are 3-3 and you run the jack you are risking your contract declarer being
♠xx,
♥Kx,
♦KQJTxx,
♣Jxx or
♠x,
♥KTx,
♦KQJTxx,
♣Jxx
This last consideration tilts the balance. Because of this you should probably put up the
♠king
Rainer Herrmann