[kgr]

IMPs

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Lead small ♥.
I took ♥A, played a small ♣ to ♣Q and ♣A for RHO.
RHO returned a ♥. I played ♥K, ♥-ruff, ♣K and ♣-ruff.
I did then run ♠Q.
(From the play it is not clear if ♥ & ♣ were 4-4 or 5-3)
- you agree with this line?
- It doesn't matter to run ♠Q or ♠T? If this ♠ looses to LHO, is it best to run a ♠ again or to play ♠A?
- Is it better to do one of the ruffs with ♠T or ♠Q?

[Fluffy]

running queen or 10 is IMO bad, best is to take ace and play another at this point, you don't wanna face a diamond through and a possible overruff.

Its better to play ♠10 than ♠Q even if you intend to run it, if you play ♠Q you risk going down if RHO has something like ♠K ♥Qxxx ♦Kxx ♣A10xxx where a club will uppercut ♠8.

[SteveMoe]

Agreeing with Fluffy, adding...
I would have ruffed out ♥ then played trump A then small toward trump Q.
Hope they have to break the minors for me.

[kgr]

SteveMoe, on 2012-November-25, 16:38, said:

Agreeing with Fluffy, adding...
I would have ruffed out ♥ then played trump A then small toward trump Q.
Hope they have to break the minors for me.

Does that really help?
If trumps break 2-2 you will make with both lines.
If trumps are 3-1 then they take ♠K and return a trump and you can not longer ruff a ♣

[kgr]

Fluffy, on 2012-November-25, 08:58, said:

running queen or 10 is IMO bad, best is to take ace and play another at this point, you don't wanna face a diamond through and a possible overruff.

Ok. Thanks. (This is if LHO has ♠KJ?)

Fluffy, on 2012-November-25, 08:58, said:

Its better to play ♠10 than ♠Q even if you intend to run it, if you play ♠Q you risk going down if RHO has something like ♠K ♥Qxxx ♦Kxx ♣A10xxx where a club will uppercut ♠8.

If you run the ♠Q then RHO will cover with his singleton ♠K and you play the ♠A.
You play another ♠ to ♠T loosing to LHO ♠J. LHO now has to play ♦ to give you difficulty.
Isn't that the same as running ♠T and RHO having ♠J ♥Qxxx ♦Kxx ♣A10xxx ?
If you play ♠A and another ♠ and LHO has K8x then you have the same issue? LHO takes the K and returns a ♦ and you have to guess how to come back to your hand?

[kgr]

I used some system help and not sure if this will all be correct:

♠-suit in isolation according to suitplay:
Run ♠Q:
- LHO has ♠x: 12.43%
- LHO has ♠K: 6.22%
In isolation running ♠Q or T is better.

If LHO has ♠KJx then we cannot win if ♦-finesse looses.
If LHO has K87 then running ♠Q looses to his ♠K. ♦-finesse looses to RHO ♦K. RHO play a ♣, ruffed low in hand and LHO has to overruff with ♠7 (otherwise we play ♠A and ♠9 next). LHO can return another ♦ taken by ♦A, but we can ruff a ♦ next with ♠9 and play ♠A.

According to simulation in Jack it is slightly better to finesse ♦ in trick 2.

(According to simulation in Jack it is slightly better to run ♠Q than running ♠T. I don't know why.)

[PhilKing]

Any simulation in Jack will be skewed here, because if Jack played on diamonds, it will always make the correct decision on the third round of the suit when East follows (ruffing high when necessary).