[paulg]

Scoring: IMP

North South
....... 1♠
2♣ - 3♥!
3♠ - 4♣
4♦! - 4♥!
5NT! - 6♠

Lead: ♦3

---

There seems to be a number of reasonable lines to play this slam but I wondered if there is a clearly better one?
If you draw trumps West will show out on the second round, East holding ♠JT4.

[Flame]

I think double finnese on east is clearly the best line, with 75% success.

[inquiry]

I disagree with the double finesse ....

If we ignore the spade division, the double finesse is actually closer to 78 than 75%. With EAST having three spades to WEST's one, the odds decrease somewhat, to around 71.5%

An alternative line is an elimination and then throwin... this line is win diamond in hand, cash heart ace, ruff a heart. spade to king. If all follow, cash heart king, ruff heart, diamond to the dummy, and lead a club...and hook for endplay.

Same line on the 3-1 ♠ off side, of sorts. Win diamond in hand, heart, heart ruff, spade to dummy... bad news. Cash heart, ruff a heart (makes no difference is east ruffs fourth heart, but might make a difference to us if he throws a club), diamond to dummy, and lead the club queen and let it run.

This line fails if hearts are 6-1, or if clubs are 4-1 with EAST having a smalll singleton. Odds of 6-1 hearts is about 5%, odds of 4-1 clubs with east small singleton (small big one we change horses) or 5-0 clubs (east void) after 3-1 trump split found is only 14.2%. These odds come out to be about 80%.

Ben

[luke warm]

cardsharp, on Dec 5 2004, 10:48 AM, said:

Scoring: IMP

North South
....... 1♠
2♣ - 3♥!
3♠ - 4♣
4♦! - 4♥!
5NT! - 6♠

Lead: ♦3

---

at the table i'd see the possibility of the throw in, but i think i'd still go for the double finesse

[Free]

Elimination + throw-in is most of the time my favorite. So don't start with 2 trumps, but only 1, and further like Ben said. Problem however is when ♥s are 5(W)-3(E) and West plays his last ♥ after the throw-in... This possibility might decrease the odds even more, I don't know exactly how much, but I think both lines have almost equal chances if you take this into count.

[Flame]

Nice line Ben and good points by free free, need a good heart break (atleast 4 hearts with east) to make this endplay.

[paulg]

I think it is clear to win in hand, preserving ♦A as late entry, and start by ruffing a heart, as a 2-2 trump break makes an easy elimination.

The advantage of playing for the elimination is that you can change your mind quite late in the play and chose the double finesse instead. In real life West erred slightly by throwing a heart on the second trump which enabled me to complete the partial elimination and throw him in when hearts proved to be 5-3.

However, if hearts are 6-2 then this line gives up on the double club finesse as you are an entry short, but if East ruffs the ♥K, as is likely, you will now have a club finesse/endplay position and will go down only when East holds ♣KJx(x).

On the actual hand both club honours were with West so the double finessers would have gone down. At the other table a less accurate auction ended in 7♠, where playing for a singleton club honour is the only possible line (down two this time).

I thought it was an interesting hand that shows how to maintain your chances throughout the play and make a final decision as late as possible.

p

[HeartA]

partial elimination. almost as what Ben said.

Win ♦ in hand, cash ♠A. ♥A, ♥ ruff, ♠ to King (bad news, the good thing is EAST has 3). ♥K and ♥ ruff. ♦ to K and run [CQ]...

[Fluffy]

the partil elimination isn´t working very good, West can play a 5th♥ wich everyone is gonna ruff, leaving yourself in hand with no possible entrty to dummy for another ♣ finese, this is kinda likelly and restricks your chances to doubleton honnor in ♣ with West.

♥6-1 aren´t a big problem, you are gonna discard 4th ♣ on ♥K, not a total nned.

If the elimination leads to a ♣ ruff to East double finese isn´t working so no matter.

Try the elimination, and when ♠ are 3-1 try for the double finese, if east ruffs second round double finese won´t work, so only losing the unlijelly 5-0 option.