[FrancesHinden]

From the same match as the other one, but this time you are our opponents

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2NT = good 20 - bad 22
3NT = 5+ clubs, forces 4C
4H = 4 spades, 5+ clubs
5D = cue for clubs

Your lead

[Fluffy]

Declarer has a monster hand and I can't think of a monster hand that gets so excited for slam without spade doubleton or maybe ♠KQx, this means ♠A cannot work.

Our tricks are slow Declarer could have something like ♠Kx ♥Axxx ♦AKJ ♣AQxx where diamond is fatal, for a diamond to be required declarer must have 2425 with ♠xx and ♦Ax, that's too specific, I will just go for trump and hope declarer missguesses whatever he must.

[ewj]

Yeh, I'm a passive trump lead as well. Ace of spades could have been right to give a ruff but if that's the case I stand a chance of two tricks there, with my DQ and ♥ not breaking.

[bluecalm]

I don't want to lead a club because they might be missing Q♣.
I think I would try A♠. Sometimes we ruff, sometimes they are missing AK. Sometimes we have Q♣ and they have to guess it.
I don't think they necessary have 9+clubs. Opener with xx AKQxx AKx Axx/Qx AQJx AKJx Axx would probably bid the same (if they open 2NT with that).

[mikeh]

I don't agree with Fluffy's take that declarer has a monster. I assume that dummy's bidding announced some slam interest and that with lesser values dummy would have invoked a staymanish 3 level call. Otherwise 5♦seems too unilateral. So I place declarer with no more than a 'good hand in context'.

As it is, I place declarer as almost always holding the spade K (in fact at the table I would have asked whether 5♦implied anything about the spade suit). I still don't lead a spade since I may recover from losing a ruff when spades are 5413 around the table but am morally certain that I can't recover when partner holds xx in spades.

I'm not leading a heart. Partner could have doubled with some chunky heart holdings and, anyway, why pick up the suit for declarer, as may happen. I'm closer to a heart than to a diamond.

I'm not leading a diamond for obvious reasons. I can't imagine being often able both to build a diamond trick and being able to enjoy it....they rate to hold very good hearts if they hold weakish diamonds and dummy has at most 4 red cards.

So a club it is, from a process of elimination.

[Phil]

Edited

[Fluffy]

bluecalm, on 2012-October-29, 17:16, said:

I don't want to lead a club because they might be missing Q♣.

How many clubs do you think the 5♦ bidder has?, if its only 3 they must be AKx

[rhm]

I do not think a slow defense and a safe trump lead is likely to work.
Dummy will not have bid 3NT with 5 poor clubs and declarer forced to slam with 5♦.
They have a good club fit and dummy is more likely to come down with 6 of them.
Otherwise a Stayman sequence would be more normal.
It is odds-on that dummy will get 2 spade discards, if needed on the red suits.
Going for a spade ruff or (less likely) possibly two fast spade tricks is our best bet.

Rainer Herrmann

[FrancesHinden]

rhm, on 2012-October-30, 08:49, said:

They have a good club fit and dummy is more likely to come down with 6 of them.
Otherwise a Stayman sequence would be more normal.

If dummy has a slam try with 5 clubs and 4 spades, this is how they bid.
Going via Stayman & then bidding clubs would only show 4 of them.

The only reason that dummy is more likely to have 6 clubs than 5 is that more 6-4 hands are slam tries than 5-4 hands with the same number of high cards.

[VM1973]

If partner has a club or heart trick then he's either always getting it or you'll screw it up by leading the suit, so I see no point in leading either of those suits. If it's matchpoints there's good logic supporting just banging down the ♠A and hoping that maybe 0 overtricks is Avg+

If, on the other hand, you think you need to beat the contract then you should play a low diamond hoping to find partner with ♦K and an entry either in trumps or you get in with the ♠A to cash the setting trick.

[gszes]

p rates to have a max of around 3 hcp. If p has the dia K we may have no chance no matter
what we do since a low dia lead might set up a ruffing finesse in dia. If p has the club K it is
either a trick or not. If p has the heart K we are toast. If p has the spade K however there is
a very good chance we need to lead the spade A at trick 1 and continue spades. The opps far
too often will score 6c 4h 2d before we ever get another chance to collect our spade tricks.

Another reason for a spade is the bidding lho rates 2h max rho 4h max p has 6+ hearts
3/4 dia a club or 2 not much room left for spades even if p has nothing we can still set if
the very strong hand got excited about slam with KQx spades (sorry Fluffy) becasue p can
ruff (hopefully).

Finally leading the spade A might be the only way to keep opps from making 7 if p is broke.

[JLOGIC]

Dummy has four spades and declarer has two or three? I'm a simple soul and going for a spadE ruff...anything else is over thinking it

[rhm]

FrancesHinden, on 2012-October-30, 16:12, said:

If dummy has a slam try with 5 clubs and 4 spades, this is how they bid.
Going via Stayman & then bidding clubs would only show 4 of them.

The only reason that dummy is more likely to have 6 clubs than 5 is that more 6-4 hands are slam tries than 5-4 hands with the same number of high cards.

I do not get your point.
If you exclude 3NT as a final contract immediately over 2NT, how can you do that with 5 clubs and 4 spades, unless you have strong slam aspirations?

Rainer Herrmann

[FrancesHinden]

rhm, on 2012-November-01, 04:38, said:

I do not get your point.
If you exclude 3NT as a final contract immediately over 2NT, how can you do that with 5 clubs and 4 spades, unless you have strong slam aspirations?

Rainer Herrmann

You said that dummy is likely to have 6 clubs, as otherwise responder would have gone via Stayman.
I am saying that isn't the case. If responder has a slam try with 5 clubs and 4 spades, this is how they would bid.

[mike777]

AS

[mikeh]

rhm, on 2012-November-01, 04:38, said:

I do not get your point.
If you exclude 3NT as a final contract immediately over 2NT, how can you do that with 5 clubs and 4 spades, unless you have strong slam aspirations?

Rainer Herrmann

they need (I assume) no more than the values to stop safely in 4N with no black suit fit, so I don't understand your objections

[rhm]

mikeh, on 2012-November-01, 18:31, said:

they need (I assume) no more than the values to stop safely in 4N with no black suit fit, so I don't understand your objections

If 4NT is safe why introduce clubs unless you have serious aspirations scoring more in a club contract, that means at least 12 tricks?

The opposite is not true. 12 tricks may well be lay-down opposite a fit when you hold 5 clubs and 4 spades, but there maybe no game past 3NT when opener does not fit.

What this means is that bidding like that works only if the 5 card club suit is quite strong and should run opposite a doubleton honor.
Claiming that most hands with 5 clubs and 4 spades can afford bypassing 3NT contradicts in my opinion Bridge logic.

Rainer Herrmann

[mikeh]

rhm, on 2012-November-02, 05:24, said:

What this means is that bidding like that works only if the 5 card club suit is quite strong and should run opposite a doubleton honor.
Claiming that most hands with 5 clubs and 4 spades can afford bypassing 3NT contradicts in my opinion Bridge logic.

Rainer Herrmann

That is a classic strawman argument. Nobody....absolutely nobody...has suggested that the given sequence would be used by most hands with 5 clubs and 4 spades

[FrancesHinden]

At the table, the player with this hand (Tony Forrester) led the ace of spades.
Good news... partner had a singleton spade
Bad news... partner had a trump void

Any non-spade lead beats it. They have two spade losers.

The more I think about the hand, the more I think the spade lead was right, even though it failed on this occasion.