[EricK]

inquiry, on Nov 30 2004, 04:07 PM, said:

EricK, on Nov 30 2004, 08:28 AM, said:

In the specific auction 1♥ (1♠) P (P) X (P) 2♦, it strikes me as very unlikely that the opps are suddenly going to come to life! Once both opponents have passed consecutively, it is much more likely  that partner has a very strong hand, so we might as well describe our hand as best we can.

Eric

I put this hypothesis to the test by using REC software Inc's Bridgebrowser onto the problem. I asked it to check for auctions that begin specifically

1♥ (1♠) P (P) X (P) 2♦,

And examined how many were followed by three passes. In my initial test using recent BBO data, I found this auction occured 96 times, but 2♦ ended the auction only 16 times (just more than 16%). The overcaller (the spade bidder) side played the hand a total of 25 times (meaning they outbid your side of course). Sometimes the extra bidding was by opener without any interference, but on 62 of the 97 hands the overcaller side took another action in the auction after the 2♦ call, and on a few where they didn't it was openers rebid that scared them off in my opinion.

So I think the auction is not over after a 2♦ call from either your partner's side of the table or the opponents. IT might be, be the odds of that are fairly low. If partner has diamonds, they will find a reason to bid, if partner is strong, he might bid again, if he is not, they will bid again. This seems to be a trueism... If you bid 2♦ and overcaller has fair clubs and nice spades, he will reopen with a double over 2♦ and find their fit.. and if you don't belong in diamonds, he might reopen and the next hand might have enough diamonds (behind you) to find the pass.

ben

I am genuinely surprised by this! Partly by how often this particular auction occured.

I don't suppose you could say why the opponent's didn't have a bid on the last round but suddenly find that they do now.

If it is becasue overcaller has a medium strength hand with 6♠, then we can probably discount that from our thinking on this particular hand. As I wouldn't be too worried about their bidding on in ♠.

Eric

[inquiry]

EricK, on Nov 30 2004, 02:27 PM, said:

I am genuinely surprised by this! Partly by how often this particular auction occured.

I don't suppose you could say why the opponent's didn't have a bid on the last round but suddenly find that they do now.

If it is becasue overcaller has a medium strength hand with 6♠, then we can probably discount that from our thinking on this particular hand. As I wouldn't be too worried about their bidding on in ♠.

Eric

Well, I looked at over 4 million auctions, so this isn't a very high frequency....that is, it isn't often.

Often the spade bidder found another bid, or the 1♠ passer now found he had a few points and three spades and raised. There was a fair number of 2♦X (some left in btw) when overcaller had clubs.

Ben

[EricK]

inquiry, on Nov 30 2004, 06:38 PM, said:

EricK, on Nov 30 2004, 02:27 PM, said:

I am genuinely surprised by this! Partly by how often this particular auction occured.

I don't suppose you could say why the opponent's didn't have a bid on the last round but suddenly find that they do now.

If it is becasue overcaller has a medium strength hand with 6♠, then we can probably discount that from our thinking on this particular hand. As I wouldn't be too worried about their bidding on in ♠.

Eric

Well, I looked at over 4 million auctions, so this isn't a very high frequency....that is, it isn't often.

Often the spade bidder found another bid, or the 1♠ passer now found he had a few points and three spades and raised. There was a fair number of 2♦X (some left in btw) when overcaller had clubs.

Ben

I suppose the situation where 4th hand fails to raise on the first round is the one to worry about, especially against weak opposition. But less so in this situation, where we have 5 spades.

Eric

[whereagles]

In my regular partnership I have a 2D gadget available for VERY weak raise (which could be 2 cards!), so I might just use that.