[dogsbreath]

Scoring: MP

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hi ..this from N.Ireland Pairs final session. y play 6nt after 3D pre-empt by East.
Y get favourable lead of small H to your J. Club to Q and small S off table.. 9,K,Ace ..West exits a club ..east discarding.. what now?
E/W are 'experienced' but not very strong players .. why didnt W return S to test you early?
Rgds Dog

[luke warm]

i'd play east 2371 with the ♠J... the reason is, we have 32 hcp and west showed the ♣A... east would almost have to have the ♠J, so the finesse loses anyway... play for it to drop

[the hog]

"hi ..this from N.Ireland Pairs final session."

I assume you were kibbitzing, Martin.

[inquiry]

I would have cashed four clubs (assumign suit is not 5-0) to figure out the distribution of this suit. Then I would play spade from dummy to the King-ACE.

Now how were clubs split. If WEst had 3 or 4 clubs plus the spade ACE, I would play EAST for the spade JACK and go up with the Queen. Playing for Diamond-Spade squeeze on East (or west) if the jack doesn't fall. If East had four clubs and West one, I would hook the spade. If West had three clubs and west the spade ACE, I would win the spade Queen and play for the squeeze if the jack doesn't fall.

On this line, there is slightly greater chance that EAST has spade JACK (52% versus 48%), so I guess I would jump up with the queen.. but I would ahve a feeling that I did not given it best play.

Ben

[Free]

Isn't this a simple squeeze against East? If he had ♠Jxx and all these ♦s, he's screwed. If you play all your other suits, you'll know soon enough if he has ♠J or not imo.

Just cash your ♣, ♥ and ♦QAK, and you should know what to do...

[inquiry]

Free, on Nov 29 2004, 06:52 AM, said:

Isn't this a simple squeeze against East? If he had ♠Jxx and all these ♦s, he's screwed. If you play all your other suits, you'll know soon enough if he has ♠J or not imo.

Just cash your ♣, ♥ and ♦QAK, and you should know what to do...

The squeeze calls for the hand with four diamonds ot have 3 spaded 9as opposed to two) to the jack. There is no evidence from the bidding that either hand will be long in both diamonds and spades. Given the NECESSARY requirement that the spade jack will be with the long diamonds, the simple odds are better for the finessee than the squeeze.

There is some minor restricted choice here. West Wth AJx of spades simply had to win the ACE. With Ax had to win it too. Only with Axx would it be realativelly safe to duck the first spade... and even then, that is not safe if he held four diamonds.

This is why it is better to try to get a little information about the hand. Clubs is the safest suit to cash some winners (you you can unblock the the heart ACE).

Ben

[mpefritz]

My (maybe incorrect) thoughts:

1) I will assume that you get a complete count of the hand as you run your winners, setting up the ending to look like a pointed suit squeeze. In other words, you will have seen all the hearts (if not--see 2).

EAST started 2=3=7=1, I will use restricted choice on the spade 2,3,4 to think EAST has the last x. (At the point of decision, WEST will have played 2 of the small spades -- one as a discard, and one as you lead to the board). Therefore, I hook. This is works out to be close to the open spaces argument. I am not concerned about a single HCP and this junky preempt. (may be a psyche)

If EAST started 3=2=7=1, I assume he has pitched a spade x, and WEST plays an x as I lead to the board at trick 12. Did EAST look uncomfortable pitching the spade x? I think it is a guess at this point.

2) If someone holds onto the last heart and I cannot figure out who that is, I will be disappointed. If WEST is grasping onto the last heart, then play for the drop. If EAST has the last heart, he also has the last diamond. Hook!

Why didn't WEST return a spade? Maybe he thought YOU were out...therefore he didn't want to give you a chance for a finesse when you couldn't take it yourself?

fritz

[EricK]

It looks like East has 7♦ (since he pre-empted, and West didn't lead one but made a risky ♥ lead) 1♣ 3♥ (as West would probably have overcalled with 6♥ to the Q and an outside A) and so 2♠.

A player who pre-empts on 7 to the J will not let the presence or absence of an outside J influence them, so unless the many discards they are forced to make persuade me otherwise (or tell me my inferential count is wrong), I don't see any reason not to eventually take the finesse.

Eric

[kgr]

inquiry, on Nov 29 2004, 12:25 PM, said:

Free, on Nov 29 2004, 06:52 AM, said:

Isn't this a simple squeeze against East?  If he had ♠Jxx and all these ♦s, he's screwed.  If you play all your other suits, you'll know soon enough if he has ♠J or not imo.

Just cash your ♣, ♥ and ♦QAK, and you should know what to do...

The squeeze calls for the hand with four diamonds ot have 3 spaded 9as opposed to two) to the jack. There is no evidence from the bidding that either hand will be long in both diamonds and spades. Given the NECESSARY requirement that the spade jack will be with the long diamonds, the simple odds are better for the finessee than the squeeze.

There is some minor restricted choice here. West Wth AJx of spades simply had to win the ACE. With Ax had to win it too. Only with Axx would it be realativelly safe to duck the first spade... and even then, that is not safe if he held four diamonds.

This is why it is better to try to get a little information about the hand. Clubs is the safest suit to cash some winners (you you can unblock the the heart ACE).

Ben

Ben,

Did you take into account the 3D preempt by East?

[inquiry]

kgr, on Nov 29 2004, 09:29 AM, said:

inquiry, on Nov 29 2004, 12:25 PM, said:

Free, on Nov 29 2004, 06:52 AM, said:

Isn't this a simple squeeze against East?  If he had ♠Jxx and all these ♦s, he's screwed.  If you play all your other suits, you'll know soon enough if he has ♠J or not imo.

Just cash your ♣, ♥ and ♦QAK, and you should know what to do...

The squeeze calls for the hand with four diamonds ot have 3 spaded 9as opposed to two) to the jack. There is no evidence from the bidding that either hand will be long in both diamonds and spades. Given the NECESSARY requirement that the spade jack will be with the long diamonds, the simple odds are better for the finessee than the squeeze.

There is some minor restricted choice here. West Wth AJx of spades simply had to win the ACE. With Ax had to win it too. Only with Axx would it be realativelly safe to duck the first spade... and even then, that is not safe if he held four diamonds.

This is why it is better to try to get a little information about the hand. Clubs is the safest suit to cash some winners (you you can unblock the the heart ACE).

Ben

Ben,

Did you take into account the 3D preempt by East?

No.. I missed the fact that EAST preempted in diamonds. I need to read the conditions more clearly *I actually like the auction showed in normal format as I am a careless reader at times *

[kgr]

Because East did preempt in Diamonds, West has more empty spaces to hold the Spade J. I will go for a finesse in S.
I take Club A, Cash Heart K, cross to my hand in Club, Cash heart Ace and go back to dummy in Clubs. Cross to my hand playing diamond A and K.
Now I take the finesse in S if I did not get any info to the contrary.

[Free]

inquiry, on Nov 29 2004, 01:25 PM, said:

Free, on Nov 29 2004, 06:52 AM, said:

Isn't this a simple squeeze against East?  If he had ♠Jxx and all these ♦s, he's screwed.  If you play all your other suits, you'll know soon enough if he has ♠J or not imo.

Just cash your ♣, ♥ and ♦QAK, and you should know what to do...

The squeeze calls for the hand with four diamonds ot have 3 spaded 9as opposed to two) to the jack. There is no evidence from the bidding that either hand will be long in both diamonds and spades. Given the NECESSARY requirement that the spade jack will be with the long diamonds, the simple odds are better for the finessee than the squeeze.

There is some minor restricted choice here. West Wth AJx of spades simply had to win the ACE. With Ax had to win it too. Only with Axx would it be realativelly safe to duck the first spade... and even then, that is not safe if he held four diamonds.

This is why it is better to try to get a little information about the hand. Clubs is the safest suit to cash some winners (you you can unblock the the heart ACE).

Ben

I don't say it's a squeeze per se, but it can be one. This is why I'll play my other suits first, to gather more info. If East shows 3 cards in ♥ and ♣, I can still finesse with a 100% success rate. However, IF it's a squeeze, I'll probably find out...

Just taking the finesse is too soon imo, gather more info and make the right decision later on. There's no danger in cashing your suits.

[Fluffy]

Seems its jsut a guess, I am asking myself why didn´t west return a ♠ inmediatelly, still didn´t conclude why, Except if he was scared of your singleton ♠K, giving you the unique option of a ♠ finese you cannot trty otherwise, so I would try the finese.

That is unnless the lead is a clear 5 card suit, if I am sure East has 3♥, and then 2♠ I think he would play ♠9 only from ♠J9.