[mindofmike]

IMPs against BridgeBaron.

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How much of a gambler do you feel like being? Some number of spades, or is this the time to get tricky?

At the table, I figured I might never get another legitimate opportunity to make a call like this, so I just shot out 6♠. All pass. The full deal, with play:

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+11 IMPs against the opposing +420. Yeah, it was a lucky guess, but I figured West for three hearts, five diamonds, and (if East's carding is to be believed) four clubs, leaving room for only one spade. Can't test for the stiff queen, unfortunately, but it worked out.

[the hog]

mindofmike, on 2012-August-27, 17:50, said:

IMPs against BridgeBaron.

---

How much of a gambler do you feel like being? Some number of spades, or is this the time to get tricky?

At the table, I figured I might never get another legitimate opportunity to make a call like this, so I just shot out 6♠. All pass. The full deal, with play:

---

+11 IMPs against the opposing +420. Yeah, it was a lucky guess, but I figured West for three hearts, five diamonds, and (if East's carding is to be believed) four clubs, leaving room for only one spade. Can't test for the stiff queen, unfortunately, but it worked out.

Why should west have 3H?

[Bbradley62]

the hog, on 2012-August-27, 18:07, said:

Why should west have 3H?

He might; he might not... hence the title of the thread.

[sfi]

the hog, on 2012-August-27, 18:07, said:

Why should west have 3H?

Because west followed to 3 rounds of hearts. He's talking about the guess in spades rather than the guess to bid 6S initially.

[Yu18772]

If I feel that I must guess the final 4S or 6S immediately I probably do....but frankly I dont see how opponents can shut me out of the bidding, if I am willing to put 6♠ on the table anyway.
So I start with double to let them bid and get more info about likely distributions.
Yu

[the hog]

sfi, on 2012-August-27, 18:37, said:

Because west followed to 3 rounds of hearts. He's talking about the guess in spades rather than the guess to bid 6S initially.

No! He needs to ruff the 3rd h in dummy!

[sfi]

the hog, on 2012-August-27, 23:09, said:

No! He needs to ruff the 3rd h in dummy!

I'm not sure what you're arguing about here. Declarer ruffed the 3rd heart in dummy and then had to guess trumps - as per the play provided. When declarer made this decision he knew about the heart break.

If you want to play west for only two hearts, you need to decide whether to play them for a singleton 2 or Q of spades. No other layout lets you make slam. And this layout is markedly lower percentage than what declarer actually played for.

[Quantumcat]

I like it when the hog is wrong :-)
The post can't be about whether to ruff the heart or not, since you can't make it if you don't (edit: except for what sfi just said, oops).
Something else that points to the finesse is that so far, East has only three HCP (he played the ♦Q and his pard played the ♣Q) yet he managed to find a response with only four hearts and a balanced hand, so he should have the queen of spades.
Edit: and with what sfi said, then the only possibility to play for (if you don't want to assume West has three hearts) is the singleton 2 of spades.

[mike777]

mindofmike, on 2012-August-27, 17:50, said:

IMPs against BridgeBaron.

---

How much of a gambler do you feel like being? Some number of spades, or is this the time to get tricky?

At the table, I figured I might never get another legitimate opportunity to make a call like this, so I just shot out 6♠. All pass. The full deal, with play:

---

+11 IMPs against the opposing +420. Yeah, it was a lucky guess, but I figured West for three hearts, five diamonds, and (if East's carding is to be believed) four clubs, leaving room for only one spade. Can't test for the stiff queen, unfortunately, but it worked out.

Per Bergen looks like an easy 4s if everyone has their bid. I give up on slam in these auctions.

Bergen has discussed this type of auction often.