[sailoranch]

---

Both vulnerable at IMPs. The lead is the standard ♠8, and you catch a break as the ♠K holds, East playing an upside-down ♠2.

Thanks for your replies.

[CSGibson]

Diamond to the king. spades are probably 5-5, we'll be getting a fine score for 1N making when 2S probably makes on the other side (unless diamonds are 3-3). So I am going to set up as many tricks as possible early rather than go for the clubs immediately. I may have an opportunity to do something later in the play even if the club Q doesn't fall doubleton.

[SteveMoe]

I agree with Chris that ♠s are likely 5-5. However I don't like starting ♦s. I have no dummy entries, except perhaps in ♥s. Therefore I will lead the ♥J at trick 2, hoping to induce a cover. If not I finesse (and hope the remaining Honor is doubleton). At this point the opponents have book: 1♦, 4♠, and 1♥. On the run of the ♠s I have to discard carefully - 2♣ and 2♦ from dummy. 1♣ and 2♥ are painful. That leaves us with 1♠, 2♥, 2♦ and 2♣.

Starting ♦ first, opponents can win the first ♦ trick because the suit is blocked. Now they can cash ♠ and put declarer back in with a ♦. Now declarer needs a doubleton ♣Queen or a defensive error (we won't get) if we break the ♥ from hand. The run of the ♠ will cause us to choose between our chances in the round suits before we have enough information. This means they get 7 tricks before we do.

[ggwhiz]

Diamond and bring the clubs in later?

Not that I think it's right so much but +90 against red opps going -100 around the room sucks and blows at the same time. I avoid that score at all costs. Maybe the J♥ followed by the Ace (if they don't cover) and a diamond avoids that better.

[CSGibson]

I see that my line has not been drawn to its logical conclusion just yet.

When I play on diamonds, I am hoping that spades are 5-5 and diamonds 4-2, with one of the players being 5-3-2-3. When they cash their spades, I'll pitch down to 0-1-3-4 shape in dummy, and 0-2-3-3 in hand. Whatever they exit, I'll win in hand and cash the diamonds, and the ace of hearts, then decide whether to try and endplay someone, or cash the AK of clubs and stepping stone squeeze an op to make the last trick in diamonds, depending on the discards, and whether one of them unblocks in hearts.

[SteveMoe]

deleted

[SteveMoe]

Chris, after you win the ♦A there are 11 tricks to play. After 4 spades, we have to come down to 7 not 8 cards. Since ♥ affords a ~75% chance honors split (plus adds that RHO covers) can we take the same line starting with ♥s?

This needs more thought than I can give it here but i intend to study the missing honors and expected lengths after the run of the ♠s in either scenario.
Steve

[CSGibson]

SteveMoe, on 2012-July-29, 13:25, said:

Chris, after you win the ♦A there are 11 tricks to play. After 4 spades, we have to come down to 7 not 8 cards. Since ♥ affords a ~75% chance honors split (plus adds that RHO covers) can we take the same line starting with ♥s?

This needs more thought than I can give it here but i intend to study the missing honors and expected lengths after the run of the ♠s in either scenario.
Steve

Yeah, remove a diamond from hand and a club from dummy.

Here's my problem after running a heart: You never get to dummy to run another. On the run of spades, you have to pitch either down to a stiff heart, or pitch a club, or a diamond winner. In essence, by running the heart you are wagering that you have Hx of hearts on your right or HH(xxx) as the only winning scenarios, giving up on the club Q dropping doubleton. You also go down automatically when spades are 6-4 without some unlikely blockage. That is the same problem with playing on clubs - you set up the setting trick if the Q doesn't drop, but at least by playing on clubs you have a chance of 8 tricks If the Q is doubleton.

[SteveMoe]

Missing assets:
♠AQJ10987532 7 HCP
♥KQ862 5 HCP
♦A10986 4 HCP
♣Q10862 2 HCP

Lack of overcall by LHO suggests 5233 shape. With 5242 or 5134 a bid is almost automatic. If LHO is 5233 then RHO is 5242. Can LHO hold all HCP? Can’t tell without more info on their competitive agreements. A double on 16-18 could be likely.
RHO should be balanced or semi balanced. With any singleton I would expect a balancing bid. If RHO has many Honors, they are not well placed for their side and would prompt a pass.
East’s small spade lead suggests no interior sequence.
When the ♠K wins either the ♠A is with LHO or RHO is keeping communications open with LHO holding 6 spades. We can’t make the hand if ♠split 6-4. Yes, blockage might hinder cashing tricks immediately but there are enough missing high honors that transportation exists.
There are no clear entries to dummy after the ♠K. The ♦10 and ♣J are potential delayed entries. Both the ♦ and ♣ suits are blocked.
Suspect ♦A and ♠A are not in the same hand. Playing on ♦s puts us at the mercy of East’s switch. A spade switch while likely will not be as painful as a ♣ switch from East. We will either have to guess or cash ♦then play our last spade.

Assume we play on ♦s and they win he Ace and run 4 spades. We come down to (as Chris suggests):
North
-
-9-
1075-
J95--

South
--
A10---
-QJ
AK7

Now ♦♦, ♣♣♣ offers no extra tricks in ♥s (they keep ♥H=Hx). Therefore we are tightroped into ♦♦ ♥♥, hoping for a useful ♣ or ♦ return. ♣s remain ambiguous.

Starting with the ♥J at trick 2, let’s assume no cover (since that obviates the hand). Assume LHO wins since if ♥J wins we can switch to a ♦ and make 7 tricks by force. After losing the ♥H and 4 spades we retain the same cards. The net difference is leaving one ♥ and one ♥ honor instead of 2♥ honors at bay. Now when we cash our remaining ♦, East will win or not. If not, we can clear ♣s, confident that West must return a ♥ when in with the ♣Q if it does not drop. If East is in with the ♦A we will either finesse a ♥ return, decide whether to cash or duck a ♣ or win the ♦ return in Dummy and finesse ♥s. If the ♣Q is doubleton, we still have the ♥ finesse available, and can cash the ♦10. If not, then we create a true stepper to the ♦10 by leading ♥s. East is endplayed.

I sense the two lines are roughly equivalent, but think leading the ♥J leads to a more transparent ending (easier to judge) and offers the chance of a defensive mistake.

My luck? We chose one of these 2 paths when the ♣Qx was there all along!
Steve

[aguahombre]

What would the sheep at the other table do, Phil?

[sailoranch]

Thanks for your comments. I don't think we can run a heart and then play for an endplay. They get a heart, four spades, and the ♦A; they exit a diamond and we're stuck with a loser.