[Fluffy]

---

lead is ♥J, RHO will play 2 (Std carding)

they know all your hand except DQ

[kenrexford]

Funny. The more I think about this casually, I really want to lead the diamond Jack away from Dummy at trick two..

[wanoff]

Win, KS, ruff a club high and play the trump, making if trumps are 3-2.
Presumably trumps were 4-1.
If with East you're ok if D finesse works and the 3 red winners stand up.
If West had the 4, you'd be ok if he also had Kxxx diamonds (or longer). ie finesse, ruff a diamond, KH (it does W no good to ruff or pitch the winning diamond), ruff last diamond.

[TWO4BRIDGE]

Win; low ♦ toward Q .

[SteveMoe]

 TWO4BRIDGE, on 2012-July-18, 17:37, said:

Win; low ♦ toward Q .

Yesss! Sets up a ♦ winner for the slow ♥ loser pitch. If ♦K onside, can pitch 1{hearts] and 1♣ on long ♦ after drawing trumps/

[Cyberyeti]

 SteveMoe, on 2012-July-18, 20:10, said:

Yesss! Sets up a ♦ winner for the slow ♥ loser pitch. If ♦K onside, can pitch 1{hearts] and 1♣ on long ♦ after drawing trumps/

Except that hearts are quite likely 5-1 (they're 5-1 or 3-3, 5-1 could be either way round, but my bet on J109xx) and you could be off at trick 3 to the ruff.

Also there are no long diamonds, you only have one pitch ever not 2, you are going to lose a diamond or a heart.

I think at the table I'd ruff the club, play ♠ KJ and overtake unless RHO shows out without his stiff being the 10. In fact I almost might as well ruff the club high.

Given that if the 2♥ is an honest card, hearts are 3-3 or 5-1 not 4-2 (or 6-0) do you get better odds by just playing for them 3-3 ?

[gnasher]

 Cyberyeti, on 2012-July-19, 04:15, said:

Except that hearts are quite likely 5-1 (they're 5-1 or 3-3, 5-1 could be either way round, but my bet on J109xx) and you could be off at trick 3 to the ruff.

Not only that, but if ♦Q loses to the king and they play a heart back, you're forced to cash the third diamond before drawing trumps, and you still have to find a way back to hand after ruffing a club. Playing diamonds at trick two looks horrible to me.

Quote

I think at the table I'd ruff the club, play ♠ KJ and overtake unless RHO shows out without his stiff being the 10. In fact I almost might as well ruff the club high.

A 6=2 club break is a priori less likely than a 4=1 spade break, which suggests ruffing the club low.

Also, we may be able to judge what to do from the club plays. If RHO plays two small clubs, we can probably assume that the suit isn't 6=2, because LHO didn't lead a club. Given the bidding, RHO should probably always play the jack on the second round if he's got it, but he may not do so in practice. He probably won't play the queen from a holding like Qxxx, because he doesn't know who has the jack.

[rhm]

 Cyberyeti, on 2012-July-19, 04:15, said:

Except that hearts are quite likely 5-1 (they're 5-1 or 3-3, 5-1 could be either way round, but my bet on J109xx) and you could be off at trick 3 to the ruff.

Except that East seems marked with the ♥Q, so I would bet against JT9xx.

Rainer Herrmann

[WellSpyder]

 Fluffy, on 2012-July-18, 16:21, said:

RHO will play 2 (Std carding)

they know all your hand except DQ

Does not compute! I don't think you can draw any inferences from 2 if they already know your hand...

[phil_20686]

 gnasher, on 2012-July-19, 04:29, said:

Not only that, but if ♦Q loses to the king and they play a heart back, you're forced to cash the third diamond before drawing trumps, and you still have to find a way back to hand after ruffing a club.

I don't understand this? if they play a heart back and you win in dummy I can still ruff a club high draw trumps ending in hand and then play diamonds?

Besides, there are other variations on this line. There are plenty of lines that are cold vs any 3-2 trumps break. Lines that can pick up 1-4 trumps are harder. The dummy reversal?

If you cash two clubs ending in hand and run the diamond Q, you can then try ruffing two diamonds in hand with the 9 and a top one when the diamond K is onside, if its offside you need the third round of diamonds to stand up I think.

[rhm]

 gnasher, on 2012-July-19, 04:29, said:

Not only that, but if ♦Q loses to the king and they play a heart back, you're forced to cash the third diamond before drawing trumps, and you still have to find a way back to hand after ruffing a club. Playing diamonds at trick two looks horrible to me.


A 6=2 club break is a priori less likely than a 4=1 spade break, which suggests ruffing the club low.

Also, we may be able to judge what to do from the club plays. If RHO plays two small clubs, we can probably assume that the suit isn't 6=2, because LHO didn't lead a club. Given the bidding, RHO should probably always play the jack on the second round if he's got it, but he may not do so in practice. He probably won't play the queen from a holding like Qxxx, because he doesn't know who has the jack.

All true, but ruffing your club low and clubs break does not mean you have made your slam when spades break 4-1.
You still have a small problem of getting back to hand without suffering a trump promotion or ruff.
This could hurt you even if clubs are 5-3.
On the other hand you may survive when East has 4 trumps, when you ruff the club high.
Postponing the diamond play makes it easier for opponents to judge the right defense.

Rainer Herrmann

[rhm]

 phil_20686, on 2012-July-19, 05:07, said:

I don't understand this? if they play a heart back and you win in dummy I can still ruff a club high draw trumps ending in hand and then play diamonds?

If you are prepared to rely on trumps breaking 3-2 in addition to a singleton trump ten, there is no real problem and there is no need for artistry in diamonds in the first place.
Just ruff your club high, assuming they are not 7-1, and draw trumps.

The whole issue starts when an opponent holds 4 trumps to the ten. This opens a can of worms.

Rainer Herrmann

[phil_20686]

 rhm, on 2012-July-19, 05:19, said:

If you are prepared to rely on trumps breaking 3-2 in addition to a singleton trump ten, there is no real problem and there is no need for artistry in diamonds in the first place.
Just ruff your club high, assuming they are not 7-1, and draw trumps.

The whole issue starts when an opponent holds 4 trumps to the ten. This opens a can of worms.

Rainer Herrmann

I thought that was what I said? My post was meant to be understood as "Playing a diamond at trick two is one a large number of lines that are basically cold on any 3-2 trump break". As you pointed out gnashers alternative did not seem obviously better than a diamond at trick two, so I questioned why he "hated" it.

Its more difficult to pick up 4-1 trump breaks. The dummy reversal looks best. Easy to see how you can pick up Txxx trumps with rho on that line if he follows to 5 red suit winners. 4243 or something.

But playing a diamond at trick two sometimes lets you pick up 4-1 breaks aswell. In particular, if rho has Kxxx diamonds, then you are very well placed. if he rises and returns a heart, you can unblock the diamond Q and cash two top spades ending in dummy, if rho has four spades playing winning diamonds gets you home.

[Cyberyeti]

 rhm, on 2012-July-19, 04:55, said:

Except that East seems marked with the ♥Q, so I would bet against JT9xx.

Rainer Herrmann

Sorry, lost the Q. I meant QJ10xx, but if standard carding precludes that (not sure what's standard in the US), then stiff J or J109 look most likely.

[mikeh]

It's taken a play problem to get me at least partially out of my brief hibernation.

I win the lead, cash the spade K. If the 10 drops then the play is (close to) trivial and I won't expound further.

If LHO shows out, I play for an elopement: I will cross in clubs to advance the diamond Q. I am not down (yet) even if this loses, tho I am much happier if the diamond K is onside. I won't elaborate further.

If RHO shows out, I think I'm almost always down, but there are lies where I can still make. Say LHO is 5=2=4=2 or 5=2=3=3 with the diamond K.

Assuming nothing interesting happens in spades at trick 2, I cross to my hand with a high trump.

If LHO shows out, I advance the diamond Q. I pretty much need LHO to hold the K since my transportation for the needed trump coup is limited

If the diamond K is onside (and of course we assume he covers), I play to elope with my trump...AJ diamonds, ruff a diamond, heart over and ruff a diamond (if rho ruffs with a spot, I pitch my heart).

If RHO shows out on the second spade, I don't even have the faint hope of a trump coup, and now have a sure trump loser, so I must find the diamond K onside and hope for an elopement...I will need LHO to be 4=2=4=3, I think.

If both follow in spades, and the 10 has appeared, I ruff a club (high by default) and lead a diamond towards my Q. RHO can't hurt me in clubs or diamonds (so long as no-one has a stiff diamond) so has to play a heart. Now I need diamonds to have been 4=3/3=4 or the short diamond to have only 2 trumps. I am then able to safely ruff the 4th diamond high, pull trump and claim.

If LHO wins the diamond K, he has to play a red card and I have to hope diamonds are splitting, but I am otherwise cold.

If spades are 3=2/2=3, and the 10 hasn't appeared, I ruff the club high and play a diamond as above.

If RHO wins, I need him to have had fewer than 5 clubs or to hold the last trump, otherwise he beats me with a club. Assuming he plays a red card, a diamond gives me the contract, so he plays a heart: I cash the diamonds and now guess a red suit. If RHO has the 3rd trump, I can't go wrong.

If LHO wins the diamond the Q, he can't lead clubs so he leads a red and I am back to needing diamonds to live and guessing a red suit to ruff to get back to my hand.

Obviously, if I knew spades were 3-2 at the outset, I'd simply ruff a club high and pull trump and claim. Catering for a 4-1 (or 5-0) break is prima facie anti-percentage, but this line has significant chances on 3-2 breaks while catering to a host of 4-1s and even 5-0's.

Figuring out the percentages is too tough for me. But this is the line that occurred to me when I first saw the problem....it takes far longer to write these things out than it does to think of them, for whatever that's worth. Having said that, it wouldn't surprise me to learn that I have over-complicated things and failed in an easy contract

[Fluffy]

I though at first LHO had just falsecarded, but now I think hey just lead rusinow against suit contracts, LHO had ♥Q in case it matters to you.

[rhm]

 Fluffy, on 2012-July-18, 16:21, said:

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lead is ♥J, RHO will play 2 (Std carding)

they know all your hand except DQ

It seems to me most plays will sensibly want to ruff the club loser most of the time and discard the heart loser on a diamond winner should the diamond finesse fail.

If you play diamonds before drawing all trumps, opponents will likely return a second heart when they come in with the diamond king.
If you play a diamond from dummy it does not even matter who has the king.
Even if the second heart does not get ruffed, this means you will have to discard your heart loser immediately on the diamonds while trumps remain outstanding for lack of entries between dummy and declarers hand.
This means you rely on diamonds being 4-3 or that the outstanding trumps are not with the short diamonds.
Even if this is true, you have no guarantee to survive a 4-1 break in trumps, since you still need to get back safely to hand somehow.
This looks to me all together worse odds than playing for trumps to break with some outside chance if trumps are 4-1.
You simply can not ruff a club, draw all trumps and only then discard your heart loser on the third diamond unless you squander one of dummy's high trumps.

T1: ♥A
T2: ♠K , assume no ♠ Ten and nobody showing out.
T3,4: ♣A,K
T5: ♣ ruff with the ♠ J
T6: ♠A

If all follow to the second round of trumps you are obviously home.
If somebody shows out you need the diamond finesse. Play the ♦Q.

1) If it wins and RHO has 4 trumps to the ten, play a trump coup, by first playing all your remaining red suit winners in dummy, ruffing a diamond in hand and exiting with your heart loser. You remain with Q9 over RHO Tx in trumps.
This wins if LHO has the ♦K unless RHO has a red suit singleton.

2) If it is LHO,who has 4 trumps to the ten, you are left with the hope that LHO has exactly 3 clubs.

You have 2 alternatives:

You can try to ruff 2 diamonds using the ♥K as an entry for the second diamond ruff. This wins when LHO is 4=2=4=3 or 4=1=5=3.
Assuming LHO does not ruff in on the second heart his trump winner will fall together with your heart loser at trick 13.

If LHO is 4=3=3=3 ruffing the fourth ♦ would not be a good idea.
Instead play the second heart winner early and ruff only one diamond and then try to throw LHO in with the third heart, hoping that LHO has QJT in hearts or fails to unblock from QJx.

A priory the second alternative under 2) is less likely than the first, but the trick one play may convince you to play for the 4=3=3=3 holding. You can postpone this decision by taking your second heart winner late, if you deem it unlikely that this will induce LHO to unblock.

Rainer Herrmann

[Fluffy]

RHO had ♠10xxx ♥x ♦xxx ♣Qxxxx

[rhm]

 Fluffy, on 2012-July-21, 16:09, said:

RHO had ♠10xxx ♥x ♦xxx ♣Qxxxx

Although there are 13 tricks double dummy, single dummy I see no rational line of play which leads to success against this layout.

Rainer Herrmann

[lowerline]

 Fluffy, on 2012-July-18, 16:21, said:

---

lead is ♥J, RHO will play 2 (Std carding)

they know all your hand except DQ

Win the ace. Cash two spades. If spades are 3-2 you have no problem. If spades are 4-1, play a diamond to the Q next. Only if the diamond king is in West together with the remaining trumps, you have a problem. Then the only remaining chance is a red suit squeeze.

Steven