[patroclo]

West play QH for 3 K 2.
<br>Est play AH. How to ruff ?

---

There is a trap in my question

[Zelandakh]

I suggest this is moved to the N/B forum.

[the_clown]

You can discard your tow minor losers on the Hearts, but that will not help you a lot when E plays forth round of the suit. Of course if W is nice enough to give count, this can give you some information.

I would ruff with the 9 and then Spade to the Ace if it gets overrufed. Two singletons is not very likely. Furthermore if E has Qx he surely has a minor singleton and you would expect him to lead especially if it is in Diamonds. If S has AJ10xxx he will ruff with the J and when W doesnt overruf he will play Spades from the top. On any other switch S is likely to finess the S queen in W. Playing against expert opponents I think its reasonable to assume that E doesnt have the Q of Spades

On the other hand a talented defender could sometimes overruf with the Q from Q10 doubleton, making sure you get it wrong when you have only 5 spades. When you have 6, you will probably play Spade to the Ace anyway so ruffing with the Q will not cost. Of course E knows that there is not much chance that S has only 5S so he could just let him make a mistake.

[wank]

Zelandakh, on 2012-July-20, 02:57, said:

I suggest this is moved to the N/B forum.

novices and beginners do stuff like draw trumps at 2 for 0 when they have losers to ruff. if you consider this a n/b problem, you're playing in a higher standard of event than me.

[Hanoi5]

Throwing the two minor losers on the hearts is the way to go. Trumps need to be 2-1 so if there is a fourth round of hearts we can ruff with the 9 and overruff in dummy if neccessary.

Why post such a problem and besides add that there is a trap in the question?

This post has been edited by Hanoi5: 2012-July-20, 06:15

[ahydra]

Hanoi5, on 2012-July-20, 05:36, said:

Throwing the two minor losers on the hearts is the way to go. Trumps need to be 2-1 so if there is a fourth round of trumpshearts we can ruff with the 9 and overruff in dummy if neccessary.

FYP, and I would play this line also. But after doing that, we need to draw trumps. Suppose W follows to the second heart, and ruffs with the 10 on the fourth round of hearts. You overruff, small spade from table, small spade from East, and...?

ahydra

[Hanoi5]

ahydra, on 2012-July-20, 05:53, said:

FYP, and I would play this line also. But after doing that, we need to draw trumps. Suppose W follows to the second heart, and ruffs with the 10 on the fourth round of hearts. You overruff, small spade from table, small spade from East, and...?

ahydra

...And Ace. 2=7 is probably opened at the 3 level while 1=7 at the level of 4.

[billw55]

Against unknown opponents, I would dowgrade the probability of a seven card heart suit at this vulnerability. 3♥ would be a very reasonable alternative. So I will pitch the minors on tricks 2 and 3.

To the OP: to make this problem as simple as you probably intended it to be, change one of dummy's small trumps to the ten.

[kenrexford]

This is not as obvious as it seems.

Suppose that spades are divided 0-3, with RHO having Q-10-x. Ruffing in with the Jack at trick two forfeits a spade. But, then you can ruff the last heart when in Dummy with the trump, hopefully play the top minors in the correct order, and catch RHO in a throw-in. So, that remote possibility is not hopeless if you ruff in with the Jack.

Suppose spades split 2-1 or 1-2. Now, the spade Jack might win (if RHO has the Queen), and you lose othing by ruffing in.

Suppose spades split 3-0, with LHO having the Queen. Now, you were losing a spade sooner or later anyway. But, all is not lost. You eventually force LHO to win his spade (second trick lost), eliminate the heart, play all of the minor honors, and hope to throw in RHO with a minor card, either because he pitches wrong or because he is stuck. Now, RHO must give you a ruff-sluff, and you make.

So, assume now that LHO has one or two spades with the Queen and can over-ruff the hearts (hearts actually splitting 8-1). That's two losers. But, that means that RHO has exactly four cards in the minors. If he is 2-2, you can eliminate the minor winners and then throw him in with your third heart, pitching a minor loser. Now, RHO must give you a ruff-sluff for 10 tricks, again.

Thus, the ONLY time where pitching minors at tricks two and three gains is when RHO has all three spades and can get off the throw-in (remote), or when LHO has 1 or 2 spades with the Queen and when RHO has 3 or 4 in one minor.

[Hanoi5]

kenrexford, on 2012-July-20, 08:00, said:

Thus, the ONLY time where pitching minors at tricks two and three gains is when RHO has all three spades and can get off the throw-in (remote), or when LHO has 1 or 2 spades with the Queen and when RHO has 3 or 4 in one minor.

The only time. You make it sound like a very low possibility.

[kenrexford]

Hanoi5, on 2012-July-20, 09:38, said:

The only time. You make it sound like a very low possibility.

I am sure that you would agree that RHO having Q-x-x- in spades is fairly remote. That would give LHO 12 cards in the minors, and even then you have a 33% chance of prevailing (decide between 2-0, 0-2, and 1-1). But, all of that is surely low percentage as far as a concern.

The second pattern -- LHO having 1 or 2 spades -- is the higher percentage. However, as LHO in that scenario has 1 or 2 spades, RHO also has 1 or 2 spades, such that the odds are 50-50 that RHO has the Queen. Thus, you have to eliminate roughly 50% of those instances. Granted, 2 for LHO is a lot higher than 1. But, a fair estimate seems to be that the Queen is with LHO probably exactly as often as LHO has 2 rather than 1.

So, we get to the question of how many minor cards RHO has in a given suit. We need a 3-card minor to run into a problem. But, we actually have a hedge there, too. If RHO shows up with a 3+ minor, we can eliminate his heart on him and hope he can be thrown in with the 3+ minor. So, that reduces the issue somewhat, as well.

In the end, I am not saying, though, that these scnearios are a "low possibility." Rather, if the chances of the Jack of Spades at trick two hurting will occur even 1% less frequently than the chances of LHO having all three spades (and a throw-in working) or a fourth round of hearts creating a problem, then the Jack of Spades play is right.

I happen to believe that pitching twice probably is the percentage winner. However, I have not done the math on this one. I merely pointed out that the problem is not as simple as it seems because there is another whole set of lines possible.

[JLOGIC]

Alternative lines:

1) Pitch on the 2nd heart, ruff the 3rd. If RHO has 2 spades you will never go down unless he has a minor suit void since you will have LHO sqzed. If RHO has 1 spade you need him to have 1288, or his 3 card minor to be 3 small clubs. This is catering to avoid the problem that if you pitch twice, the defense will play anohter heart, and if you ruff and get overruffed you have a trump guess (eg, you ruff 9 it goes overruff with the ten and overruff with the king, now you will play a spade to the ace going down when RHO had Qx of spades).

2) If you thought RHO was quite likely to have 7 hearts, you might try ruffing the 2nd heart. This eliminates the same guess as above, since you will pull trumps and play your last heart pitching, and have the same squeeze set up. There is a problem with this though, if you get overruffed and they get out a club, when you play a heart and pitch they can play another club, breaking up your communications. So, on a club back you can go with kens line, pull trump and strip the minors and then play a heart and discard, forcing the ruff/sluff. This works just as well as the squeeze.

Presumably this is why the hand given states that RHO is r/w and that the heart led is the QUEEN, which does make 8-1 hearts look very likely

[ahydra]

JLOGIC, on 2012-July-20, 12:33, said:

Alternative lines:

1) Pitch on the 2nd heart, ruff the 3rd. If RHO has 2 spades you will never go down unless he has a minor suit void since you will have LHO sqzed. If RHO has 1 spade you need him to have 1288, or his 3 card minor to be 3 small clubs. This is catering to avoid the problem that if you pitch twice, the defense will play anohter heart, and if you ruff and get overruffed you have a trump guess (eg, you ruff 9 it goes overruff with the ten and overruff with the king, now you will play a spade to the ace going down when RHO had Qx of spades).

2) If you thought RHO was quite likely to have 7 hearts, you might try ruffing the 2nd heart. This eliminates the same guess as above, since you will pull trumps and play your last heart pitching, and have the same squeeze set up. There is a problem with this though, if you get overruffed and they get out a club, when you play a heart and pitch they can play another club, breaking up your communications. So, on a club back you can go with kens line, pull trump and strip the minors and then play a heart and discard, forcing the ruff/sluff. This works just as well as the squeeze.

Presumably this is why the hand given states that RHO is r/w and that the heart led is the QUEEN, which does make 8-1 hearts look very likely

Nice spot on the squeeze. But I think if he had 1288, he would be dropping cards on the table by now

Also, I think LHO would lead the HQ from Qx as well, right? We can't really make any inferences from the Q.

ahydra

[Hanoi5]

ahydra, on 2012-July-20, 12:42, said:

Also, I think LHO would lead the HQ from Qx as well, right? We can't really make any inferences from the Q.

ahydra

I believe AKxxxxxx and AKQxxxx are similar.

[phil_20686]

The analysis is complicated by the fact that if east is 1822 I can always make by squeezing west in the minors, even if I give away a trump trick, the same line works with east 28(21) and 3811. Failing to ruff also might go off if rho is 07 in the majors.

Ruffing is wrong only if east is 18(31). Its impossible to rho to be void in a minor after he overtook the heart Q when he could have asked for a ruff.

I guess then its right to ruff, even though it seems unnatural. Perhaps guessing the ends position will be quite hard vs good players though.

[phil_20686]

Zelandakh, on 2012-July-20, 02:57, said:

I suggest this is moved to the N/B forum.

This hand seemed pretty hard to me .

[Zelandakh]

phil_20686, on 2012-July-20, 14:06, said:

This hand seemed pretty hard to me .

My point was that the line at the end of the OP tells us (probably) which line was being asked for. As a N/B problem this would be the answer and an end to it since we would not be talking about squeezes there. On the other hand, if we are getting into the complexities of the deal then it is possibly even a board suited to the Expert forum, since there are lots of possibilities. Having this in I/A is neither one thing nor the other. I still believe the OP meant this as an N/B problem and not an A/E problem.

[patroclo]

patroclo, on 2012-July-20, 02:40, said:

West play QH for 3 K 2.
<br>Est play AH. How to ruff ?

---

There is a trap in my question

the hand

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[ahydra]

Well then, looks like Hanoi5 scores up his 420.

I take it the "trap" in the question "how to ruff?" is "you don't".

ahydra

[kenrexford]

ahydra, on 2012-July-26, 08:58, said:

Well then, looks like Hanoi5 scores up his 420.

I take it the "trap" in the question "how to ruff?" is "you don't".

ahydra

You pitch two times, but then you still have to ruff. So, the answer is not "you don't" but "you don't yet," apparently.

Plus, when you do ruff, you have a slight problem. If you ruff with the Jack, this is over-ruffed by the Queen and then the King, and then Declarer has to decide whether RHO has stiff 3 or 10-3. If you ruff with the 9, this is over-ruffed by the 10 and then King, and then Declarer has to decide whether RHO has stiff 3 or Q-3. If you pitch from hand, this is the functional equivalent of ruffing with the 9. Thus, no matter what Declarer does, he has a guess on the next two rounds of spades, the first of which is "how to ruff?", because the 9, the Jack, or a pitch might all work (force the Queen with the 9, or win with the Jack).

Technically, to hedge against Q-10-x with Opener, the first "guess" is easy -- ruff with the 9 (or pitch again). But, as that play is 100%, you end up with 10-K and a decision on the second round of spades. "Does RHO has Q-3 or just 3?"

Of course, none of this means that pitching twice was or was not right, simply because the deal ended up as it did.