[JLOGIC]

Axx
Ax
QT98x
Jxx

KQ9xx
xx
Ax
AKxx


You play 4S at imps. LHO leads teh H7 3/5th. If you duck they continue hearts. What's your plan? I took a weird line (obv) but I have yet to be convinced that I was wrong.

[rduran1216]

id win the second and play a club to the J. if LHO hops Q, I'll pull a number of trump and barrings a trump loser make 4. If RHO captures it w the Q, I will pull two rounds of trump (A and K) and play to ruff my 4th club

[gnasher]

I'd win the second heart and try the following until something works:
- Run ♦10.
- Club to the jack.
- Cash ♦A to see if the other diamond honour is dropping.
- Draw two trumps and see if clubs are 3-3
- Try to ruff the club in dummy and get back to hand without suffering a promotion

After the first diamond loses, if LHO plays a diamond back immediately I may decide to vary this, depending on what I think the diamond layout is.

[mr1303]

Isn't the percentage play in the diamond suit to run the Queen?

[JLOGIC]

mr1303, on 2012-May-31, 02:05, said:

Isn't the percentage play in the diamond suit to run the Queen?

depends what your objective is

[rduran1216]

why am I playing on diamonds, seems wrong.

[r_prah]

I would play a spade to hand at trick 3, and lead a low diamond, intending to put up the queen if LHO plays low.

[SteveMoe]

I think I win the ♥A, play small trump to K, then the ♥. Let's see what they will do to help.
I think I'm trying for 4♠+1♥+3♦+2♣ or better. Defense will likely return a ♣. Play the Ace and develop diamonds. I'm playing to pitch 2♣ on the 3rd and 4th ♦ tricks while the opponent with long trumps ruffs the 4th. I think that's the only way I can survive 1-4 trumps...

[squealydan]

JLOGIC, on 2012-May-31, 01:30, said:

Axx
Ax
QT98x
Jxx

KQ9xx
xx
Ax
AKxx

rduran1216, on 2012-May-31, 01:48, said:

id win the second and play a club to the J.

rduran1216, on 2012-May-31, 02:20, said:

why am I playing on diamonds, seems wrong.

Possibly because you're in the wrong hand to adopt your chosen line of leading a club to the jack?

[phil_20686]

My first thought was to win the first heart and lead the diamond Q. If the spares are 3-2 and the diamond K onside, or Jx offside, I will have ltots of tricks, if neither thing happens I can still fall back on playing on clubs for trick ten. This also gives me play if the diamonds come in and spades are 4-1. Something like RHo having x spade KJx diamonds. then I can get both the clubs away and lose 1s 1d 1h.

Edit: i see this is pretty much what gnasher says, always comforting. Having given this a second look, I don't really see any other lines worth considering. Will be interested to see what your "weird" line is

[gnasher]

rduran1216, on 2012-May-31, 02:20, said:

why am I playing on diamonds,

Because:
- With trumps breaking we have nine tricks, and a diamond trick would make it ten. If we were to play clubs first, we might find ourselves with four losers before we had got to our diamond trick.
- With trumps not breaking we can't afford to lose a club, so we need two diamond winners.

Quote

seems wrong.

When deciding how to play a bridge hand, instinct is rarely as reliable as analysis.

mr1303 said:

Isn't the percentage play in the diamond suit to run the Queen?

My idea was that LHO might have led a singleton jack, but not a singleton king. Usually we'll want only two diamond tricks.

[rduran1216]

gnasher, on 2012-May-31, 04:15, said:

Because:
- With trumps breaking we have nine tricks, and a diamond trick would make it ten. If we were to play clubs first, we might find ourselves with four losers before we had got to our diamond trick.
- With trumps not breaking we can't afford to lose a club, so we need two diamond winners.


When deciding how to play a bridge hand, instinct is rarely as reliable as analysis.


My idea was that LHO might have led a singleton jack, but not a singleton king. Usually we'll want only two diamond tricks.

It just seems like with LHO holding Hx in diamonds and as little as 3 trumps, we r putting ourselves to a diamond guess at trick two which endangers the contract unnecessarily. Something like

---

[gnasher]

rduran1216, on 2012-May-31, 09:30, said:

It just seems like with LHO holding Hx in diamonds and as little as 3 trumps, we r putting ourselves to a diamond guess at trick two which endangers the contract unnecessarily. Something like

"Endangers the contract unnecessarily" compared to which other line? Unless there is a 100% line, all lines place the contract in danger.

My line may well be inferior to some other line, but the way to show that is to (a) tell us what that other line is (after checking that it complies with the Laws) and (b) explain why it gains over my line more than it loses.

[mikeh]

I would win the 2nd heart, and lead the diamond Q. I note andy's caution that LHO is more likely to have a stiff K than a stiff J, but my suspicion is that dummy showed diamonds along the way, so that seems to me to negate that inference.....if dummy never showed diamonds, I run the 10 rather than the Q.

Thereafter, I follow andy's suggested combination of options.

[rduran1216]

sorry change the heart spots in my example hand to comply with the lead.

If diamonds are 4-2, which is %, then we have a 50% guess as to which honors to play LHO for. If we come to hand w a trump, then lead up to the club J, we will still get a 10th trick so long as clubs are not 5-1, and the person with the club doubleton not having 3+ trumps.(clubs 3-3 will always get us the 3 club tricks we need.)

trouble is if diamonds are guessed wrong, doesn't the defense have easy trump exit cards to force declarer into some tough decisions later?

[JLOGIC]

I think the ten is worse than the queen. They will probably always duck the queen from Kxxx and this might allow you to make on 4-1 trumps when you otherwise wouldn't have. Also, if LHO has Jx and they do cover the queen sets up multiple pitches whereas if LHO has Kx the ten only sets up 1 pitch which might matter if LHO has a stiff trump and Hx of diamonds.

[nige1]

gnasher, on 2012-May-31, 02:02, said:

I'd win the second heart and, try the following until something works:
- Run ♦10.
- Club to the jack.
- Cash ♦A to see if the other diamond honour is dropping.
- Draw two trumps and see if clubs are 3-3
- Try to ruff the club in dummy and get back to hand without suffering a promotion
After the first diamond loses, if LHO plays a diamond back immediately I may decide to vary this, depending on what I think the diamond layout is.

mr1303, on 2012-May-31, 02:05, said:

Isn't the percentage play in the diamond suit to run the Queen?

I like Gnasher's line but agree with mr1303 that running ♦Q at trick 2 is better because RHO, with ♦K, may not cover and if ♦Q wins, you are nearly home..

[JLOGIC]

Kxx covering or not is not really relevant though since you will make whether they cover or not

edit: Actually ducking is their best play, you might go down after they duck. Maybe this is an argument for the ten.

edit 2: Well, I guess it is basically impossible to go down even if they duck.

[Phil]

Ducking the heart is clear. You have to lose a heart trick in any event, and surrendering one early leads to an embarrassing continuation like diamond lost to LHO, diamond ruffed by RHO, heart over, uppercut.

I would want to know what happened in the heart suit at T1. If it went, 7, low, J (or even Q), it appears as though LHO led from KT7x or KJ7x at T1 which is mildly aggressive against an auction that doesn't scream aggression. Accordingly, there's a strong inference LHO has one or both diamond honors since he might opt for a diamond from xx, xxx or xxxx. With dummy showing three trump (I'm assuming this), LHO might also opt for a trump lead from certain black suit holdings like ♣QTxx / ♠xx.

Re: running the diamond Q? Fred's favorite card combination for four tricks assumes adequate entries. You have entry and timing problems and you don't initially know how many diamond tricks you need. The ♦ play is sort of sexy and shows you know how to play a few card combos but I don't think its necessarily right.

An interesting line is ♣ to hand and a LOW diamond. If we buy into the idea LHO has one or both diamonds we get to judge his reaction when we lead low. At the table, I think I'd choose this.

[gnasher]

Another advantage of running the queen is that they might duck with Kxx offside. Not everybody gives count all the time.