BBO Discussion Forums: JEC #7, board 25 - BBO Discussion Forums

Jump to content

  • 2 Pages +
  • 1
  • 2
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

JEC #7, board 25

#21 User is offline   han 

  • Under bidder
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 11,797
  • Joined: 2004-July-25
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Amsterdam, the Netherlands

Posted 2012-April-25, 10:43

Yes, and then again by not bidding our cold grand slam. I can't do right.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
0

#22 User is offline   JLOGIC 

  • 2011 Poster of The Year winner
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 6,002
  • Joined: 2010-July-08
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2012-April-25, 11:13

View Postgnasher, on 2012-April-25, 08:29, said:

Because I wanted to justify my pusilanimity, of course.

I agree that if my teammates were allowed to play 6, that changes the odds greatly in favour of saving. But how likely is that when I think 6 is only -500, I'm trying to decide whether to save in 7, and one of my counterparts in the other room is world-class? If my opponents were weaker, I'd be more inclined to save, partly because of this factor, and also because saving is a much lower variance action than passing - if I save, our maximum absolute loss is 7IMPs.

It seems to me that all the other likely scenarios lead to similar conclusions as in my earlier post:
- If the contract at the other table was 7x or 7-1, my calculations still apply, I think.
- Suppose that I knew that teammates had defended 6x for 500. A phantom sacrifice would still cost 19. Failing to sacrifice when I should would turn -7 into -17, for a 10 IMP loss. There's still no great incentive to save.


Yes, and I think that if I was not able to look at my hand, the opps would always be odds on to make a grand, or even 6:4 favorites. People don't bid grands that speculatively imo, it is rare that they have no play (0 %), and frequent that they are just cold (100 %). Sure, many times they are in between that, but even if they are it's right to bid, and it costs a lot of imps to not bid when they are just cold. Do you honestly frequently find that their grands go down in this type of situation?

Also, as han said you have some added vig that they play 6H (though unlikely on this hand, sometimes it is more likely.

Yes, my argument seems to be to almost always save w/r in this spot, and that makes us easily exploited. Personally I very often bid 7H just "knowing" that my good opps will save (look at the hand sementa saved on by himself for instance). I think it is sound strategy, because even when I do this I often find that I was making, and sometimes I will have my bid easily rather than some kind of bluff, so it puts them in a tough spot. But most people are not doing this, and just bidding 7 if they think it will make, which is even more an argument for saving here.

Obviously just my opinion, but I think a default strategy of not saving here without a good reason to be a losing one. I think you need a good reason to not save.

Personally on this hand I think both hands should save.

IMO grands are different beasts than slams, people bid them much less speculatively, even if that should be untrue since there is more pressure to save over a grand.
0

#23 User is offline   gnasher 

  • Andy Bowles
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 11,993
  • Joined: 2007-May-03
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:London, UK

Posted 2012-April-25, 11:32

View PostJLOGIC, on 2012-April-25, 11:13, said:

Do you honestly frequently find that their grands go down in this type of situation?

I don't think I get this type of problem often enough to answer that.

I can think of two recent occasions where we bounced the opponents around and they bid a small slam. Both times we defended instead of taking a cheap save, and both times it went one down. But you seem to have that one covered:

Quote

IMO grands are different beasts than slams, people bid them much less speculatively, even if that should be untrue since there is more pressure to save over a grand.

... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
0

  • 2 Pages +
  • 1
  • 2
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

1 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users