[pigpenz]

this was from a theoretical discussion of GIB at matchpoints
you arrived at the best strain(6♥) to give you a chance for an overtrick, do you play for it
by rising A♦ or playing Q♦ at trick one???

---

[JLOGIC]

Hi, you misclicked when you posted this hand. You meant to post it here: http://www.bridgebas...beginner-forum/

Regards,
Justin

[kenrexford]

JLOGIC, on 2012-April-19, 11:49, said:

Hi, you misclicked when you posted this hand. You meant to post it here: http://www.bridgebas...beginner-forum/

Regards,
Justin

Ditto that. About the easiest problem ever posted.

[Cyberyeti]

It needs to be posted here, in the beginner forum a combined 32 count doesn't bid a slam, so just making it wins.

[JLOGIC]

Cyberyeti, on 2012-April-19, 12:39, said:

It needs to be posted here, in the beginner forum a combined 32 count doesn't bid a slam, so just making it wins.

How does finessing make me more likely to make?

edit: ok i guess if the hook is on and trumps don't break and we misguess trumps we make, fair enough. we also risk going down on ruffs

[Cyberyeti]

JLOGIC, on 2012-April-19, 14:25, said:

How does finessing make me more likely to make?

edit: ok i guess if the hook is on and trumps don't break and we misguess trumps we make, fair enough. we also risk going down on ruffs

Yup, also if the finesse is on, but trumps are 4-1 and you do pick them up, you make 7 if you finesse, tying with everybody who picked the hearts up in 6♥/6♠ and didn't get the diamond lead.

Need a real work of art to get to 6♥ by north which is where you want to be to avoid this problem.

[gszes]

pigpenz, on 2012-April-19, 09:25, said:

this was from a theoretical discussion of GIB at matchpoints
you arrived at the best strain(6♥) to give you a chance for an overtrick, do you play for it
by rising A♦ or playing Q♦ at trick one???

---

did you see that if hearts break 32 (68%) wayyyy better than 50 (dia finesse)
you are cold for seven because you can pitch both dia losers on the spades?????
5h (4 regulare heart tricks and 1 club ruff) 5s 1d 2c = 13

the mere question of overtrick assumes hearts are 32 and the finesse gives you
nothing we refer to this as a practice finesse. No purpose to it wahtsoever but
it makes you feel lucky or something when it works.

that is why this belongs in the novice/low intermediate forum. It is possible
this belongs in the intermediate forum because the LOP used is called a
dummy reversal (setting up the dummy as good vs your hand).

[pigpenz]

ok guys sorry I wasted your time
already got beat down in GIB forum
for questioning why GIB would play Q♦
at matchpoints.

I guess over there the powers to be like to protect
GIB

[Cyberyeti]

gszes, on 2012-April-19, 15:40, said:

did you see that if hearts break 32 (68%) wayyyy better than 50 (dia finesse)
you are cold for seven because you can pitch both dia losers on the spades?????
5h (4 regulare heart tricks and 1 club ruff) 5s 1d 2c = 13

the mere question of overtrick assumes hearts are 32 and the finesse gives you
nothing we refer to this as a practice finesse. No purpose to it wahtsoever but
it makes you feel lucky or something when it works.

that is why this belongs in the novice/low intermediate forum. It is possible
this belongs in the intermediate forum because the LOP used is called a
dummy reversal (setting up the dummy as good vs your hand).

But the point I made above is valid, you need to assess what score you were getting for 6= and whether it's worth gambling this for the overtrick. The auction is also relevant, you may be able to rule out ♦KJxxxx with E if he dealt.

Taking the finesse with trumps 3-2 is only bad when it loses. Taking it with trumps 4-1 is only bad when you were picking the trumps up, but get a trick 2 ruff.

Not taking the finesse costs the contract when the finesse is right and either:

trumps are 5-0 and you could cope with that
trumps are 4-1 and you misguess

It costs the overtrick if the finesse is right and you pick up 4-1 trumps. Many in 6♠ will also make this overtrick.

If you decide E won't have KJxxxx and you were getting 80% in a weak field for just bidding and making a slam, then maybe you might think about finessing, but in any decent field where most people are in a slam, you play the A.

[gszes]

Cyberyeti, on 2012-April-19, 16:50, said:

But the point I made above is valid, you need to assess what score you were getting for 6= and whether it's worth gambling this for the overtrick. The auction is also relevant, you may be able to rule out ♦KJxxxx with E if he dealt.

Taking the finesse with trumps 3-2 is only bad when it loses. Taking it with trumps 4-1 is only bad when you were picking the trumps up, but get a trick 2 ruff.

Not taking the finesse costs the contract when the finesse is right and either:

trumps are 5-0 and you could cope with that
trumps are 4-1 and you misguess

It costs the overtrick if the finesse is right and you pick up 4-1 trumps. Many in 6♠ will also make this overtrick.

If you decide E won't have KJxxxx and you were getting 80% in a weak field for just bidding and making a slam, then maybe you might think about finessing, but in any decent field where most people are in a slam, you play the A.

I took the poster at his word, he had seen the whole hand and was interested in the best way to play for 7
because he knew 6 was cold (the only way it is ironclad is if trumps are 3/2) and no dia ruff at trick one.
Under those conditions there is no sense in taking the finesse. Taking the finesse at trick one is a superior
play to make your contract and try for an overtrick in a limited number of circumstances but that was not
the question.

[phil_20686]

gszes, on 2012-April-19, 18:02, said:

I took the poster at his word, he had seen the whole hand and was interested in the best way to play for 7
because he knew 6 was cold (the only way it is ironclad is if trumps are 3/2) and no dia ruff at trick one.
Under those conditions there is no sense in taking the finesse. Taking the finesse at trick one is a superior
play to make your contract and try for an overtrick in a limited number of circumstances but that was not
the question.

I think you misread, the OP was asking if it is right to play for the over trick by rising, or hooking for your best chance to make the contract.

I would hook, most fields I play in just making slam gets you a good board.


At the table you can normally tell vs weak opps if its a singleton, as singletons and top of sequence are the only leads that they make quickly against small slams

[JLOGIC]

Do horrible players lead from kings vs slams now? There is no way hooking is ever right lol, come on. If the field is that bad then the DK is off anyways. You have 32 HCP and a double fit, you're really saying that no one else is in slam? Why is this on the EXPERT forum then. Why do we have an expert forum. This is like some kind of joke.

Edit: Also if the field is so horrible you are unlikely to misguess trumps, as with Jxxx they will always play their lowest spot. This means that half the time there is Jxxx of trumps you can read who has the stiff heart (they will not play one of the lowest 2 spots). The other half of the time, you will guess right half the time (as you are 50/50).

So we are talking about gaining when this horrible player has underled a king, and it is stiff 2 of trumps (lets say we will pick up stiff 3, since we guess right half the time). All of that to give up an overtrick a huge amount of the time (esp since the DK is probably off if they are so awful) at MP in a 32 HCP slam with a double fit. And to go down when they have a stiff diamond. Seems awesome. If any of you actually think that circumstances where it is right to hook occur any non negligible amount of time in real life, I think you are playing horribly and outthinking yourself.

[JLOGIC]

How about this. You are playing in this theoretical horrible field. Assume the opps never falsecard from Jxxx of trumps (reasonable assumption in this field). Assume that the DK is 75 % to be off (which imo is too low since they are horrible and don't lead from kings vs slam but ok).

Hearts are Jxxx 22.6 % of the time. We get that wrong 1/4th of the time so 5.65 %. The DK is on 25 % of the time. So we gain a trick a whopping 1.4% of the time. I have ignored Jxxxx of trumps, but lets say that the DK on with trumps 5-0 is about as likely as them having a stiff D (a stiff diamond is probably more likely but whatever) and call them a wash.

So we are taking a "safety" play because the field is so bad that we make 1.4 % more often. In return, we lose an overtrick in a 32 HCP double fit slam some massive amount of the time, I won't bother to calculate, but it is over 50 %.

So basically, we have to be 100 % certain that no one else in the field will ever play slam for this play to be right. Even losing half a matchpoint is not worth it. It is a joke how bad it is to finesse even in these "horrible field" conditions.

Maybe if it was a horrible field and we were playing against a world class pair who would lead from a king and then falsecard from Jxxx of trumps you could make a case. But even then if the DK is 50 % to be on, and we are a mere 50 % to guess trumps when they're 4-1, the DK on and trumps 4-1 with the misguess would be like 6.5%. I mean, lol. Even then, you would have to be damn sure no one else would be in slam, and might I repeat, we have THIRTY TWO high cards and a double fit.

[JLOGIC]

Quote

I would hook, most fields I play in just making slam gets you a good board.

Why are you trying to get just a good board? Maximize your matchpoints. Unless you win literally every single time you play and you can lock up a win if you get no zeroes, this is a nonsensical way to think about how to play a hand.

[Phil]

Truly excellent.

[Cyberyeti]

JLOGIC, on 2012-April-20, 11:40, said:

How about this. You are playing in this theoretical horrible field. Assume the opps never falsecard from Jxxx of trumps (reasonable assumption in this field). Assume that the DK is 75 % to be off (which imo is too low since they are horrible and don't lead from kings vs slam but ok).

Hearts are Jxxx 22.6 % of the time. We get that wrong 1/4th of the time so 5.65 %. The DK is on 25 % of the time. So we gain a trick a whopping 1.4% of the time. I have ignored Jxxxx of trumps, but lets say that the DK on with trumps 5-0 is about as likely as them having a stiff D (a stiff diamond is probably more likely but whatever) and call them a wash.

So we are taking a "safety" play because the field is so bad that we make 1.4 % more often. In return, we lose an overtrick in a 32 HCP double fit slam some massive amount of the time, I won't bother to calculate, but it is over 50 %.

So basically, we have to be 100 % certain that no one else in the field will ever play slam for this play to be right. Even losing half a matchpoint is not worth it. It is a joke how bad it is to finesse even in these "horrible field" conditions.

Maybe if it was a horrible field and we were playing against a world class pair who would lead from a king and then falsecard from Jxxx of trumps you could make a case. But even then if the DK is 50 % to be on, and we are a mere 50 % to guess trumps when they're 4-1, the DK on and trumps 4-1 with the misguess would be like 6.5%. I mean, lol. Even then, you would have to be damn sure no one else would be in slam, and might I repeat, we have THIRTY TWO high cards and a double fit.

Your numbers seem a mile off to me.

How do you propose to make 13 tricks ever with trumps Jxxx/x (edit: after starting with A♦) without risking not picking up a 3-2 break ? And even in bad fields, people lead from the K all the time. I suppose it might matter which one is led as the 8 is much less likely to be from the K than the 2 is.

We are only losing a trick 34% of the time not > 50. And why are you getting a 4-1 break right 3/4 of the time ? Bad players give all sorts of ramndom-ish signals following suit on the trumps.

You've also probably had an auction that screams lead a minor suit, so if the man has J♣ and either x or Jxxx in trumps I think he's odds on to find a diamond whether he has the K or not.

[JLOGIC]

Wait, I thought the argument was that nobody else will be in slam, thus we are safety playing. Surely if others are in slam, it is obvious to pop ace? If no one else is in slam, it does not matter if we make 7 or go down extra tricks in 6. The whole idea is supposed to be that we increase our chance of making the contract by playing the queen. My point is that if the opps/field are so bad that no one is in slam, we still increase our chances to make extremely minorly by playing the queen.

Quote

And why are you getting a 4-1 break right 3/4 of the time ? Bad players give all sorts of ramndom-ish signals following suit on the trumps.

Really? I respectfully disagree. If they are so bad that they can NEVER get to slam on these cards, the odds of them playing a spot other than their smallest with Jxxx are extremely small.

Quote

We are only losing a trick 34% of the time not > 50.

This number is assuming that the DK is 50 % to be on which is not something I would assume.

[dake50]

Finesse.
You missed the odds on grand. Play like the grand fails
while you cater to a H:4-1 loser.
It is matchpoints at GIB level ain't it?