Posted 2012-April-19, 22:11
Duck the opening lead, (they continue), so I win. Maybe I know if Clubs are 4-4 or not by now?
There looks to be two lines:
knock out the ♠A and then take the Diamond hook and make 11 tricks 18% of the time, 10 tricks some of the time (if, for example the opponents win the first Spade and Diamonds are 3-3 with the Queen offside), and I don't think I'll make 9 tricks very often at all - I'll probably go down if it doesn't work.
Alternatively, one can play on Hearts rather than Diamonds.
cross to dummy with the ♦A and run the ♥9, then cross in Spades to run the ♥J. For 9 it needs either clubs 4-4 with at least one Heart honour onside or clubs 5-3 with at least one Heart honour onside and the ♠A with East (or possibly both Heart honours with East and the ♠A with West if you pick it) Since no-one will cover the 9 without both Honours I think if an honour appears then I'd knock out the Spade Ace next.
I like the second line better. Less overtricks - but it's such a small percentage of the time that I'll live with it.