[han]

gnasher, on 2012-April-18, 06:16, said:

"Very small" is an overbid (or an underbid, depending on your frame of reference).

As we seem not to have noticed which small diamond LHO led, the only distibutional information we have at that this point is that RHO has ♦K, so he has one fewer vacant place than LHO. The chance that RHO has ♦J and ♥K is 12/25 * 11/24 = 0.22. The chance that LHO has ♥K but not ♦J is 12/25 * 13/24 = 0.26. Hence the finesse currently has a 4% edge.

That's quite a bit smaller than Frances made it seem, but indeed not Very small. If we had to guess now, clearly we would finesse.

I am relieved that Frances strategy is also to cash a safe number of clubs first. The not so very small edge of 4% could disppear as soon as we see how the clubs split.

[pigpenz]

another think no one noticed is that
the squeeze would be automatic against either opponent.
if that should help with odds tabulations.
where is bridge base II when I need it?

[JLOGIC]

gnasher, on 2012-April-18, 02:24, said:

But wouldn't you also back yourself to guess the layout correctly after six rounds of clubs and only one round of spades? The relevant question is how much extra you gain from cashing the other two spades and ♦A before deciding what to do.

No because they will just pitch all of their spades and have no pressure?

[billw55]

rhm, on 2012-April-18, 07:31, said:

If the ♥K is wrong you can expect a score around 55% for 6NT making. When I can get 100% with very little risk, I do not play safe for an average plus.
I like those odds

This bit I don't really agree with. I would expect significantly more than 55%. With the heart hook losing, 6NT= is a tie for top and that has to be more than 55% in a weak field.

The possible heart hook at trick 12, relying on RHO not blanking the king, is an interesting factor too. I probably do not risk this unless I know RHO though.

[gnasher]

JLOGIC, on 2012-April-18, 10:00, said:

No because they will just pitch all of their spades and have no pressure?

Really? How does a player with 10xxx know that we don't have Axxx or Qxxx? How does a player with xxx know that we don't have A10x(x)? They may both throw all their spades, but to work out that it's OK to do so they'll have to do some signalling. Even if they do, that means we'll have a count on both black suits, and we may have an idea about why they both decided to hold onto their hearts.

[lalldonn]

The jlogic gnasher argument seems a bit pointless. If you cash not-quite-all the tricks and think you have already read the hand, then you can act on that. If you think you haven't yet read the hand (since they have thrown a bunch of spades) but you will be able to read the hand after taking a few more tricks, then you can act on that. I don't think they are even disagreeing.

[JLOGIC]

lalldonn, on 2012-April-18, 12:14, said:

The jlogic gnasher argument seems a bit pointless. If you cash not-quite-all the tricks and think you have already read the hand, then you can act on that. If you think you haven't yet read the hand (since they have thrown a bunch of spades) but you will be able to read the hand after taking a few more tricks, then you can act on that. I don't think they are even disagreeing.

Yeah exactly, why do I have to commit to one line or another right now on a forum post? In real life you can choose based on the info you have and how confident you are. Does anyone actually plan out the entire play at trick 1 in spots like this?

[FrancesHinden]

rhm, on 2012-April-18, 07:31, said:

If you compare Francis strategy with mine
Francis will receive 100% of the time average plus

OFF TOPIC RANT

Who is Francis?
I am one of the few posters (you are another) who explicitly posts under their full name. As I bother to do that, please do me the courtesy of SPELLING IT CORRECTLY.

/RANT

[steve2005]

I think you have overlooked one option
finess in ♦
if succeeds will have 6♣3♦1♥3♠=13 tricks.
would really like to know the ♦spot for opening lead

[billw55]

FrancesHinden, on 2012-April-18, 13:53, said:

OFF TOPIC RANT

Who is Francis?
I am one of the few posters (you are another) who explicitly posts under their full name. As I bother to do that, please do me the courtesy of SPELLING IT CORRECTLY.

/RANT

If either op is Frances, she is on tilt now and I maybe can read her

[pigpenz]

steve2005, on 2012-April-18, 14:07, said:

I think you have overlooked one option
finess in ♦
if succeeds will have 6♣3♦1♥3♠=13 tricks.
would really like to know the ♦spot for opening lead

had to go check hand records it was 5♦
but also there was a singleton ♦ in dummy at trick one when it was led, so
finesse is out of question.

[rhm]

FrancesHinden, on 2012-April-18, 13:53, said:

OFF TOPIC RANT

Who is Francis?
I am one of the few posters (you are another) who explicitly posts under their full name. As I bother to do that, please do me the courtesy of SPELLING IT CORRECTLY.

/RANT

I am sorry I made a typo of your name. It was completely unintentional and I apologize.
It happens to others as well. My name has been misspelled on this forum (and others) numerous times.

Rainer Herrmann

[han]

That's what you get for spelling your last name as well, it's distracting.