[kgr]

---

How do you play this 3NT at MP's?
LHO leads ♥Q. (can be from QJT.. but also from QJ..).

Spoiler

If you play ♣ then LHO discards ♠479Q and ♥2; RHO discards ♠26 and ♦5.

[dave_w]

13 Tricks with the ♦QTx onside. I'd hate to make less when that's the case. And also a spade switch would dissuade me from taking ANY finesses in diamonds. So I'll win trick 1.

Okay - we are ahead of the non-spade leaders (we can afford to mess around in Diamonds), I'm going to make the percentage play for 3 tricks which gives up on the chance for 4. I'll cross to the club ten and run the ♦9. Needs the Ten onside or the Queen coming down in three rounds for 12 tricks.

Running 6 rounds of clubs could put a lot of pressure on the opponents, but I can't have a 4 card Major and they can see the Diamond threat. I don't think there's too much they can do wrong. But it's always a good tactic.

Spoiler

PS just looked at the spoiler and my original line is looking even better now that RHO has discarded a diamond!

[gnasher]

dave_w, on 2012-April-15, 05:04, said:

Okay - we are ahead of the non-spade leaders (we can afford to mess around in Diamonds), I'm going to make the percentage play for 3 tricks which gives up on the chance for 4. I'll cross to the club ten and run the ♦9. Needs the Ten onside or the Queen coming down in three rounds for 12 tricks.

Why is that the percentage play rather than king and low to the jack, king and low to the 9, or running the jack?

[kgr]

dave_w, on 2012-April-15, 05:04, said:

Okay - we are ahead of the non-spade leaders (we can afford to mess around in Diamonds), I'm going to make the percentage play for 3 tricks which gives up on the chance for 4. I'll cross to the club ten and run the ♦9. Needs the Ten onside or the Queen coming down in three rounds for 12 tricks.

If you run the ♦9 then 12 tricks is the maximum.
I was thinking to play the ♦K and taking the ♦ finesse with the J. And play for some squeeze (for 12 or 13 tricks depending if finesse holds)?

[benlessard]

Normally finessing against West is better.

- QTxxxxx
x QTxxxx
xx QTxxx
xxx QTxx

is pretty much equal to

QTxx xxx
QTxxx xx
QTxxxx x
QTxxxxx -

except the void hand (when East show up you put the K and finesse the other way)


T Qxxxxx
Tx Qxxxx
Txx Qxxx

Is nearly equal to

Txxx Qxx
Txxxx Qx
Txxxxx Q

Stiff T finessing W make 11 tricks while stiff Q make 12/13 tricks.

But there is also

QT-xxxxx
QTx-xxxx

where F vs E make 12 and F vs West make 13. All this point toward finessing against West.


However because of the lead, East is more likely to have spades honnors but West has showned QJT of H. My estimate is that we can put one more vacant spot to East, so If your aiming at 6NT finessing against East is probably slightly better, but since with QTx-xxxx and QT-xxxxx you can hope to make 7 you should finesse agaisnt West.

Note that there is further complication if a stiff Q/T pop up at the first round of D.

PS im just comparing hte finesse probability and do not take into account cashing clubs first.

[phil_20686]

Just seems normal to cash the diamond K and play low to the diamond J. Its the same as low to the 9 except when I get three tricks for no loss in diamonds, (Qxxx Txx say) then I have a chance of a squeeze for 13.

Suppose the layout was

---

The same layout where you play low to the nine gives up this chance.

[Phil]

RHO didn't open 2♠, or even overcall over 1♦. This is pretty important at MPs against a strong club, so there's a tertiary inference that RHO does not have a lot of five or six spades.

I think its right to start clubs with ♣A, ♣ to board to keep my entries intact. If RHO shows out, there's a strong chance I have a lot of diamonds on my right, and I like the idea of pushing the J through for my 12th trick. I know I am giving up on squeeze chances for 13, but I'm kind of rooting for the diamond finesse to lose anyway.

Hate the bidding BTW.

[phil_20686]

Phil, on 2012-April-16, 12:06, said:

RHO didn't open 2♠, or even overcall over 1♦. This is pretty important at MPs against a strong club, so there's a tertiary inference that RHO does not have a lot of five or six spades.

I think its right to start clubs with ♣A, ♣ to board to keep my entries intact. If RHO shows out, there's a strong chance I have a lot of diamonds on my right, and I like the idea of pushing the J through for my 12th trick. I know I am giving up on squeeze chances for 13, but I'm kind of rooting for the diamond finesse to lose anyway.

Hate the bidding BTW.

Who said anything about a strong club?

I would guess there is a stronger inference west does not have 5 spades, since he failed to overcall 1C. Most strong players seem to routinely get 8 counts with 5 spades into the auction over 1C, so it seems likely he has at most 4 spades. Obviously we have so many HCP that west may just lack values.

[mfa1010]

phil_20686, on 2012-April-16, 11:50, said:

Just seems normal to cash the diamond K and play low to the diamond J. Its the same as low to the 9 except when I get three tricks for no loss in diamonds, (Qxxx Txx say) then I have a chance of a squeeze for 13.

Yep.

[kgr]

This was the full hand:

---

[Phil]

phil_20686, on 2012-April-16, 12:10, said:

Who said anything about a strong club?

Yes, misread.

[mikeh]

Phil, on 2012-April-16, 14:12, said:

Yes, misread.

Bet you still hate the bidding! 3N?!?!

If one is gonna bid that way, why not start via 2N or 2♣?

[Phil]

mikeh, on 2012-April-16, 14:17, said:

Bet you still hate the bidding! 3N?!?!

Maybe even more so.

[mfa1010]

kgr, on 2012-April-16, 13:29, said:

This was the full hand:

---

There is indeed a squeeze (a double guard squeeze?) to 13 tricks, if declarer reads the end position.

Declarer discards the small spades and ♥9 on the clubs. West must keep all his diamonds and at least ♥J to avoid a finesse in hearts.
After the clubs, ♦K, diamond finesse, ♠A, west is therefore out of spades and has only one heart left. ♦A then kills east in the majors T11.

The best west can do is to throw all his hearts to keep a spade guard. Declarer then has to play heart to his 8 to make all the tricks, and that would fail if west had started with five hearts.

[Cyberyeti]

A simple man (if the discards on the clubs were in the order you stated) might discard 2 hearts and a diamond on the clubs and simply plays ace and another spade for an automatic 12 (13 if opps are muppets) as only 2 spades remain with the opps.

[mfa1010]

Cyberyeti, on 2012-April-16, 15:40, said:

A simple man (if the discards on the clubs were in the order you stated) might discard 2 hearts and a diamond on the clubs and simply plays ace and another spade for an automatic 12 (13 if opps are muppets) as only 2 spades remain with the opps.

What order of discards did I state?

[Cyberyeti]

mfa1010, on 2012-April-16, 16:05, said:

What order of discards did I state?

In the spoiler, I assumed from left to right given the order you specified the spades, if no order was implied, I'd have expected you to list the spades in the normal order highest first.

[mfa1010]

Cyberyeti, on 2012-April-16, 16:41, said:

In the spoiler, I assumed from left to right given the order you specified the spades, if no order was implied, I'd have expected you to list the spades in the normal order highest first.

Ah ok, I didnt read the spoiler.

[dave_w]

gnasher, on 2012-April-15, 06:43, said:

Why is that the percentage play rather than king and low to the jack, king and low to the 9, or running the jack?

Sometimes I should think about why plays are better rather than just memorising it from the encyclopaedia. Then my analysis would be better.

Running the 9 is better than running the Jack because you get 4 tricks when RHO has singleton Queen (although against players who would falsecard from QT doubleton you should try and drop then Ten anyway - QT doubleton is more likely than Q singleton). So this is a fractionally better chance, and might not even be relevant if they can falsecard.

Running the 9 is also superior to cashing the King and low to the Jack because you get to change Tack when RHO is void when playing the 9 towards the King. But after cashing the King there is no recovery. Again a fractionally superior play (which is irrelevant to the bridge problem).

Also I just remember the play of H9 opposite HJxx where you have to lead small to the 9 first or you don't get to use it. And this combination is (almost) equivalent.

So, I think that running the Jack is better than the 9 (retains chances for 13 on a simple squeeze when RHO has Txxx).
And then it comes down to vacant spaces - but I'm not sure what the story is. Of course West has more hearts than East. But then that's because they got to choose which suit to lead! East would have led a different suit where they have more cards than West and we'd finesse the opposite way. You have to be careful when using vacant spaces on information that the opponent's give you (as opposed to playing suits and discovering it for yourself).

Also, perhaps the lead was from QJT or QJx and RHO has more Hearts than LHO (now it's very likely that RHO is longer in Diamonds).

All this leads me to the best play is to finesse the Diamond Jack early in the play and then hope to squeeze LHO. I'm not sure which way to take the Diamond finesse anymore. I was probably right when I said I'd hate not to take 13 tricks with QTx onside. Which means I should have gone for the simple line. That's my normal mistake.

Anyway, hopefully that answers gnasher's query as to the best abstract play in that suit combination.

[kgr]

mfa1010, on 2012-April-16, 14:40, said:

There is indeed a squeeze (a double guard squeeze?) to 13 tricks

Or a compound squeeze if you play West for ♦Qxxx.
If West keeps ♠Q ♥Jx ♦Qxxx then you get to a double squeeze with ♥ as the double suit.
If West keeps ♠Q9 ♥J ♦Qxxx then you get to a double squeeze with ♠ as the double suit.