[bluecalm]

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2H was negative free bid (could be 7pc and five hearts or w/e)
Imps, pick-up partnership.

Your lead ?
If you have any comments on bidding please share

[Phil]

Seems likely partner has a club card, and we need to lead one before declare ditches them on dummy's hearts?

[mikeh]

One of the opps owns a stiff spade almost all the time on these sequences, so we don't need to worry about trying to establish a 2nd round spade trick. We control hearts, so declarer isn't getting to pitch that stiff spade on that suit....iow, if partner has the spade A, then he'll always get it unless an opp is void. That means we can eliminate the spades as a necessary lead....we'll get back to whether it is a safe lead.

We obviously don't lead hearts, and our options in trump are limited. Thus clubs come into focus. Nobody has bid them. Partner has values and they are unlikely to be in hearts, and if they are in trump...well, either they work or they don't. Meanwhile, we have a holding that could easily grow up...all we need is either the A or Q in partner's hand..which seems like a reasonable shot.

Since we have what looks like a good aggressive lead, we needn't worry about which suit is safest...that is an issue that arises only if we conclude that we can't risk an aggressive lead.

I have maybe gone on at too much length, but this is the sort of analysis I try to do on every opening lead, unless I have an obvious lead...even then, there will be times when the analysis might persuade us that the obvious is not the best on a particular hand,

[pooltuna]

one of the black Ts

[FrancesHinden]

While I agree with Mike's reasoning, and to some extent I think a club is the 'normal' lead here, it can easily be wrong. Dummy doesn't have much in the way of high cards and our diamond void in particular is slightly worrying. It's also a bit strange that partner has shown a good raise to 3S, but no-one feels they can double 5D.

Why can't their hands be something resembling

xx
Q109xxx
Axx
xx

-
xx
KQJxxxxx
AQx

when a boring spade lead takes it a boring one off and a club lets it through?

I admit I've given declarer the club honour and partner the heart honour and it could easily be the other way round, but even if the hands are:

xx
Q109xxx
A3
xxx

-
Kx
KQJxxxx4
AJx

we don't need to lead a club to beat it (that's what I meant about the diamond void)

p.s. I voted for a club, but with quite a lot of trepidation

[Phil]

FrancesHinden, on 2012-April-20, 02:05, said:

Why can't their hands be something resembling...

Frances, your constructions are inconsistent with partner being a passed hand.

[FrancesHinden]

Give dummy the KJ of spades then

(it's actually quite hard to construct a set of 4 hands consistent with the bidding where it matters what I lead)

[JLOGIC]

I would always lead a club, though I didn't attempt to do any constructing it just seems normal

[rduran1216]

I'm leading a spade. club is gonna let them make on alot of hands I think where a club shift will be obvious to partner.

[rduran1216]

Phil, on 2012-April-19, 09:43, said:

Seems likely partner has a club card, and we need to lead one before declare ditches them on dummy's hearts?

I disagree. Partner probably has 3 of the top 4 spades, and something like two red face cards. I mean once we give partner the A and or Q of clubs plus the high spades, he's dangerously close to opening. idk, club seems like it loses too often whereas I can't imagine its likely a spade, then a club shift by partner doesn't win.

[mikeh]

rduran1216, on 2012-April-20, 15:42, said:

I disagree. Partner probably has 3 of the top 4 spades, and something like two red face cards. I mean once we give partner the A and or Q of clubs plus the high spades, he's dangerously close to opening. idk, club seems like it loses too often whereas I can't imagine its likely a spade, then a club shift by partner doesn't win.

Where do you come up with these notions???

Declarer bid 4♦ more or less on his own, N raised the suit, and we hold the AJ in the suit in which surely N has some values? So I'd be astounded if partner held any appreciable strength in diamonds, and he is unlikely to hold the heart K or Q.

As for 3 of the top spade honours.....well, the most I can say is that it isn't impossible, but even if he does, why can't he have room for the club Q or even the A? As soon as you accept that there is no logical reason to place him with red cards, he could easily hold club values.

That's not to say that a spade lead is terrible....it is clearly the second choice of all the club leaders, but we've got some pretty strong support for the club lead, from players quite capable of analyzing the issue, whether consciously (as for me and Frances to name two) and from experience (as in Justin)

[AyunuS]

Spades is the best lead. I wouldn't count on your partner having many high cards in clubs, as with a passed hand he probably has some good cards in spades, and then not much else. You could end up giving the opps a free trick in clubs or even letting them see that your partner has no good clubs and then finessing you for them and you could end up getting nothing on clubs. And if either opponent has a doubleton in clubs and south has the A, you'd just completely give up a trick if you lead a club. Spade probably won't give them any extra tricks.

[bluecalm]

Full hand:
http://www.pzbs.pl/w...ce/scav017.html

When polled I've lead a club. My friend managed to convince me that spade is better but I don't know how much I am influenced by knowing the whole hand.
His argument is that it's quite likely that club gives up a trick but for it to be necessary to open clubs on 1st lead one of the following have to happen:
a)partner doesn't have As AND partner doesn't have diamond/heart stopper AND partner doesn't have Aof clubs (because in those cases we will be able to open clubs later)
b)there is spade void and hearts needs only one tempo to develop again without heart/diamond stopper in partner's hand
c)there is a spade void and Kx in declarer spade will provide vital club discards

Those seems unlikely comparing to just blowing a trick by club lead.

Thanks all for insights

[JLOGIC]

Is a spade void really so unlikely?

[cloa513]

bluecalm, on 2012-April-19, 09:28, said:

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2H was negative free bid (could be 7pc and five hearts or w/e)
Imps, pick-up partnership.

Your lead ?
If you have any comments on bidding please share

What is partner's 3D? Couldn't it just be ♠AKQ.

[FrancesHinden]

JLOGIC, on 2012-April-21, 17:21, said:

Is a spade void really so unlikely?

I think I spade void is hugely likely given they've bid game somewhat like in HCP. That's why I led a club eventually, even after working out why it might cost.

[bluecalm]

I don't know. Spade void isn't the end of the world yet (partner needs to have no diamonds/heart stopper nor Ac or declarer needs to have Ks providing vital discard).
I am not sure though, it seems close to me and I have trouble being objective here knowing the full hand
It seems that I managed to create close poll finally.

Btw, notice how awesome it is that I can link to random hand from some tournament in small Polish town and have all info there while you can't find anything like that even for Vanderbilt final in ACBL land..

[DrMunk]

mikeh, on 2012-April-19, 09:55, said:

We obviously don't lead hearts, and our options in trump are limited.

I liked your analysis, especially the part about limited options in trump..

[gnasher]

What was partner's 3♦ supposed to show? If it's a high-card raise, he should have at least one defensive card outside spades. I don't think his actual hand (AQJx Qxx 109 Jxxx) qualifies.