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Shift at matchpoints

#1 User is offline   bluecalm 

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Posted 2012-March-26, 20:50

Matchpoints


We played polish club on the occasion. 1♦ is 0-6any or 7-11 minor(s) with the latter being unlikely in lights of the final pass.
I led 9♣ and it went:

9♣, 3♣, Q♣, A♣
Q♠, 2♠, 4♠, 8♠
J♠, K♠, 6♠, 7♠

Now, we didn't have detailed agreements but 8♠ is probably smith echo (don't have T♣) and 7♠ has suit preference implications (UDCA but natural suit preference).
1N wasn't alerted but opponents are pick-up partnership and it's not uncommon for Polish people to play quite heavy NT's in this situations so as he usually is 15-17 he might well be 18 or even 19.
So, what do we play now ?

Feel free to comment on signalling if you have some good agreements to offer for the situation. I am mainly interested in thought process here so any insight is appreciated.
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#2 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2012-March-27, 10:12

With A98x would you lead the 9 or the lowest? If the lowest, then partner can safely play small from any Q-T holding at T1.

I would also think that partner can Smith to show you ♣Qxxx, as well as QTx. The lead from J9x would be odd on this bidding.

There are 17 between our hand and dummy's. If declarer has 15-18, then partner has 5 to 8, so its more likely declarer has 17-18 and partner a max 1♦ response.

I am more inclined to place the hearts 4-4 since with a maximum 1♦ response, partner might have competed to 2♥ with five fair ones and 5-6 points.

Therefore, declarer appears to have QJx(x) ???? Kx(x) ATx(x) and partner 8(x)2, ???? ?xx(x), Qx(x). Declarer will have about 7 points in hearts, leaving partner with about three, but a lot of this depends on the location of the ♦J.

Smashmouth defense would be a heart to partner's (hoped for) Ace, for a club through declarer's remaining Tx, but this is dependent on partner having three clubs, and the ♥A which seems like an unlikely parlay.

OTOH, a heart shift could work out very bad if declarer has something like QJx, AQJ9, Kxx ATx.

Ducking the 1st spade looks very bad in retrospect. I know its critical if declarer has ♠QJ dub (although I could duck the 2nd), but it seems I could have obtained the same information by winning the spades (K-A in that order to tell partner I do not like hearts), and retaining the option of defending passively. In addition, declarer might have been trying to set up a spade trick by force and playing a tricky Q from Qxx.

I do not like the position I am in since I am exposed to multiple endplays. Cashing my spade and leading a heart seems like the best bet - maybe partner has the magical Ace or KJTx.
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