[Statto]

32519, on 2012-April-22, 02:02, said:

If you're unhappy with the numbers I am quoting, effectively you're questioning the integrity of the numbers being spat out by BBO's deal generator.

johnu has posted so I don't have to. My numbers seem about right based on your numbers. I don't think you are interpreting the numbers correctly.

[nige1]

steve2005, on 2012-April-22, 10:03, said:

along similar lines to half-puppet is modified baron from Precision bidding in Acol by Eric Crowhurst
3♦= denies 5♠ and 4 or 5 ♥
3♥= 4 ♥ may have 4♠
3♠= 5 ♠
3NT = 5♥
and 2NT-3♣-3♦-3♥ shows 5♥ and 4♠ as dont need bid to show 4♥ because opener has denies 4♥
A 4♣/4♦ followup by responder is usually looking for a minor suit fit

aguahombre, on 2012-March-24, 09:35, said:

Another poster supplies a very good alternative to Puppet and the continuations after a 2NT opening here:

Mike's method is a slight improvement on Crowhurst's
- including 5 ♠ in the 3♣ reply and
- defining the 3♠ rebid as only 4 ♠
It is similar to a recent suggestion in Bridge World.

[Zelandakh]

32519, on 2012-April-22, 00:40, said:

Thus far, no one has offered a TOTAL GOOD AGREEMENT as suggested in the thread title.

I did offer a "total agreement" - whether it is good or not is another matter of course.

[FrancesHinden]

32519, on 2012-April-22, 00:40, said:

Thus far, no one has offered a TOTAL GOOD AGREEMENT as suggested in the thread title.

As long as you think it's important (i) to have some form of crawling/garbage Stayman in response to 2NT and (ii) to have some way of signing off in 4m in response to 2NT, no-one is going to.
I have not yet ever seen a hand where I want to run from partner's 2NT opening to play in 4m, and I doubt I ever will.

[32519]

FrancesHinden, on 2012-April-23, 11:44, said:

As long as you think it's important (i) to have some form of crawling/garbage Stayman in response to 2NT and (ii) to have some way of signing off in 4m in response to 2NT, no-one is going to.
I have not yet ever seen a hand where I want to run from partner's 2NT opening to play in 4m, and I doubt I ever will.

Yes, I think it's very important to be able to run from 2NT Too many 2NT contracts are going down.

Now what do you think is a contributing factor to this statistic? Answer: Not enough partnerships have an escape mechanism when responder is holding a bust opposite a 20-21 HCP balanced hand.

Here is another question to consider: Why don’t enough partnerships have an escape mechanism when responder is holding a bust opposite a 20-21 HCP balanced hand? Answer: Their partnership bidding agreement doesn’t have any room left for an escape mechanism.

Which leads me to my final question: Why doesn’t their partnership bidding agreement have any room left for an escape mechanism? Answer: All the available bidding room left has been consumed by a convention called Puppet Stayman, a 5332 holding with 20-21 HCP which has such a low probability of occurring, the bidding space consumed by PS can be much better utilised for something else such as Garbage Stayman / Crawling Stayman / signing off in 4m when responder has a long minor suit bust.

I absolutely refuse to accept that top flight players don’t have an escape mechanism with a bust hand opposite a 2NT balanced hand. OK for the average club/tournament player. Not OK for a top flight player!

[ArtK78]

The reason that too many 2NT contracts are going down is that the auction on many of them is 2NT all pass, and declarer is playing a 20 count opposite a 1 count. Anytime all of the strength of the partnership is concentrated in one hand the trick taking potential goes down.

If 2NT is making, odds are that responder doesn't pass - he has enough to bid game in something.

My regular partner and I play 4 suit transfers and Puppet over 2NT, so we can get out in 4 of a minor if we want to. But it has never happened, and I doubt that it will.

Garbage Stayman over 2NT openings? The name says it all.

By the way, no "top flight" player is going to create methods to cater to the one hand in a thousand where it is right to bid Stayman over partner's 2NT opening and then ask partner to choose to play in 3♥ or 3♠ after a 3♦ response.

[DrMunk]

32519, on 2012-April-23, 13:19, said:

Yes, I think it's very important to be able to run from 2NT Too many 2NT contracts are going down.

Now what do you think is a contributing factor to this statistic? Answer: Not enough partnerships have an escape mechanism when responder is holding a bust opposite a 20-21 HCP balanced hand.

Here is another question to consider: Why don’t enough partnerships have an escape mechanism when responder is holding a bust opposite a 20-21 HCP balanced hand? Answer: Their partnership bidding agreement doesn’t have any room left for an escape mechanism.

Which leads me to my final question: Why doesn’t their partnership bidding agreement have any room left for an escape mechanism? Answer: All the available bidding room left has been consumed by a convention called Puppet Stayman, a 5332 holding with 20-21 HCP which has such a low probability of occurring, the bidding space consumed by PS can be much better utilised for something else such as Garbage Stayman / Crawling Stayman / signing off in 4m when responder has a long minor suit bust.

I absolutely refuse to accept that top flight players don’t have an escape mechanism with a bust hand opposite a 2NT balanced hand. OK for the average club/tournament player. Not OK for a top flight player!

And how often does crawling stayman helps you stop in 2♥ or 2♠ after an 2nt opening?

[manudude03]

Any argument that depends solely on percentages is flawed. You could play that a 7NT opener shows any hand with a ten in it, it's going to come up a lot (60% I would guess), it doesn't make it a god of a convention though. Expect to lose about 16 imps on average every time it comes up.

A little more on topic, you speak of percentages, but you haven't seemed to realise that common sense should tell you your numbers are wrong. For the sake of simplicity (and bias towards you!) that a 2NT opener shows 22 HCP balanced. That means the average of the other 3 hands is 6 HCP. Now consider you will really need at least 5-4 for crawling stayman (let's face it, people routinely open 2245s and such 2NT), what looks more likely? 0-3 HCP or 4-10?

edit: it's rather hard to find references for garbage stayman over 2NT. I found one on the vugraph archives. Stansby/Martel good enough pair for you? http://www.bridgearc...=14564&b=59&r=c
Also in the commentary

Quote

robinswr: you don't play garbage stayman over 2nt

[nige1]

32519, on 2012-April-23, 13:19, said:

Yes, I think it's very important to be able to run from 2NT Too many 2NT contracts are going down.
Now what do you think is a contributing factor to this statistic? Answer: Not enough partnerships have an escape mechanism when responder is holding a bust opposite a 20-21 HCP balanced hand.
Here is another question to consider: Why don't enough partnerships have an escape mechanism when responder is holding a bust opposite a 20-21 HCP balanced hand? Answer: Their partnership bidding agreement doesn't have any room left for an escape mechanism.
Which leads me to my final question: Why doesn't their partnership bidding agreement have any room left for an escape mechanism? Answer: All the available bidding room left has been consumed by a convention called Puppet Stayman, a 5332 holding with 20-21 HCP which has such a low probability of occurring, the bidding space consumed by PS can be much better utilised for something else such as Garbage Stayman / Crawling Stayman / signing off in 4m when responder has a long minor suit bust.
I absolutely refuse to accept that top flight players don't have an escape mechanism with a bust hand opposite a 2NT balanced hand. OK for the average club/tournament player. Not OK for a top flight player!

For 10 years, I played an 18-20 2N, with few problems. It was rarely doubled and often gained when it pre-empted opponents out of a part-score. On a couple of occasions, it went several down but was a reasonable sacrifice against aopponents' slam.

My partners and I are ordinary Puppet Stayman players, but we have the mechanism to subside in four of a minor. (2N - 3♠ and 2N - 4♣ are transfers). In practice over the last twenty years or so, we've never elected to alight on either sixpence but an appropriate opportunity may arise in the future.
Sometimes, we've passed a three-level transfer e.g. 2N - 3♥ - 3♠ and on a few of those occasions we've then made exactly nine tricks

[awm]

On how many of those 2nt contracts that go down did responder have a six-card minor, and have 4m making? I'd guess not very many. Besides, a lot of us are bidding 3NT with our six-card minors (which may or may not make, but has a much better plus score when it does make than 4m which is also normally iffy).

The problem with 2NT is that when responder has a total bust it's already too high. Unless you can convince your opponents to let you play two of a suit, having extra ways to sign off will not help you much.

The good thing about 2NT is that it's extremely descriptive and you usually have game when you open it. Yes, when the auction goes 2NT-all pass you will often go down. However this auction is very rare. You are way to concerned about something that happens on very few boards... but if it's really that big a deal to you, the solution is to play a strong club plus Kokish relay, so that you can rebid 1NT on almost any range (i.e. 1♦...1NT=12-14, 1NT open=15-17, 1♣...1NT=18-20, 1♣...1♥...1NT=21-23).

[Vampyr]

32519, on 2012-April-23, 13:19, said:

Yes, I think it's very important to be able to run from 2NT

If you believe this, put your 20-21 into Kokish and you can get out in two of a major or three of a minor. Over this you can also play 3♣ Baron to get your hoped-for "Garbage Stayman".

It might be good if you realised, though, that some of the "top-flight players" you refer to are actually posting in these forums, and in this and your other threads, and they don't share your concerns. This should tell you something.

[32519]

Statto, on 2012-April-22, 00:56, said:

The probability of being dealt an opening hand of 20-21 HCP is 0.6%. So it would actually seem that in 13% of those cases opener has a 5-card major. Now you go figure

Statto, on 2012-April-22, 19:44, said:

johnu has posted so I don't have to. My numbers seem about right based on your numbers. I don't think you are interpreting the numbers correctly.

The probability of being dealt a 20-21 HCP hand, ANY DISTRIBUTION, is a miserly 1.02%. Once you start adding constraints such as a 5-card major, the numbers fall away hopelessly. So I stick to my 0.08% probability of opener being dealt a 5332 hand.

Bidding space is a very scarce, and to be highly treasured, resource. To WASTE a scarce resource on a hand pattern with such a low probability of occurrence has just got to be one of the dumbest things to do!

[manudude03]

32519, it's not the absolute probability you should be looking at, all that says is you probably shouldn't waste as much resources into responses and follow-ups. What you should be looking at is the probability of a 5 card major GIVEN opener has 20-21 balanced (i.e all the unbalanced hands and those outside of range are completely irrelevant)

[Zelandakh]

32519, on 2012-April-25, 03:54, said:

The probability of being dealt a 20-21 HCP hand, ANY DISTRIBUTION, is a miserly 1.02%.

To WASTE a scarce resource on a hand pattern with such a low probability of occurrence has just got to be one of the dumbest things to do!

Quite so. A bidding system would clearly be better if it had no bid whatsoever for 20-21 hcp hands. They are far too rare to worry about. Now the question about whether to use Puppet or not is simply moot.

The question to ask is what you do with 20-21 hcp 5M332 hands. You could choose to pass these as too rare to worry about. On the otehr hand you might choose to open them 1M, 2♣ or 2NT. If you open them 1M then what is your overall score expectation? Similarly for the other possibilties. Now you might find that one of these options is better than the others. Most experts have decided that opening these hands with 2NT is the best option - of course it might not be for you or for a specific system.

If you do decide that including the hands within 2NT is best then you have the different task of optimising your score given you opened 2NT. That is what this thread has been about. Now the probability of having opened 2NT is irrelevant since you are assuming it has already happened. The question now becomes, given I include 5M332 hands in my 2NT opening, how do I maximise my score. Puppet players believe that this is achieved by using Puppet Stayman. Whether you agree with this is irrelevant; what matters is that we are talking about the proportion of 2NT openers that contain a 5 card major, which is considerably more than 0.08%.

Or, to put it another way, in another thread you are discussing whether a bidding system should allow you to take a 2NT opener into 4m with, say, 0-1 hcp and a 6 card suit. What is the probability of Opener holding a balanced hand with 20-21 hcp? And what is the probability of Responder holding exactly 0-1 hcp and a 6 card minor? Multiply these numbers together. The answer you end up with is equally as meaningless, since the probability of Responder's hand needs to be conditional upon Opener holding theirs. Similarly the probability of the 20-21hcp 5M332 hand needs to be conditional upon holding a 2NT opener. Does this help you to understand why your numbers are misleading you?

[blackshoe]

32519, on 2012-April-25, 03:54, said:

The probability of being dealt a 20-21 HCP hand, ANY DISTRIBUTION, is a miserly 1.02%. Once you start adding constraints such as a 5-card major, the numbers fall away hopelessly. So I stick to my 0.08% probability of opener being dealt a 5332 hand.

Bidding space is a very scarce, and to be highly treasured, resource. To WASTE a scarce resource on a hand pattern with such a low probability of occurrence has just got to be one of the dumbest things to do!

What alternatives to (1) the meaning of a 2NT opening and (2) how you handle a balanced 20-21 HCP hand would you suggest?

[32519]

blackshoe, on 2012-April-25, 06:39, said:

What alternatives to (1) the meaning of a 2NT opening and (2) how you handle a balanced 20-21 HCP hand would you suggest?

On page 4 of this thread (post 61 and post 70) I gave a much simpler method for bidding 20-21 HCP 5332 hands containing a 5-card major which saves both a level of bidding space AND guarantees that the 5-card major comes into play. I’m going to flesh those posts out a bit further here.

2/1 and SAYC both open 2♣ with 22+ HCP (balanced or playing equivalent when unbalanced). The two systems differ regarding the “waiting”/negative response. 2♦ is “waiting” in both systems, usually 5-7 HCP. 2♥ is an automatic “double negative” in 2/1 promising a maximum of 5 HCP in Queens and Jacks. The cheapest available minor suit is often played as the “second negative” in SAYC. Anything else promises 8+ HCP.

Moving the 20-21 HCP 5332 hands into the 2♣ bid is an easy partnership adjustment. The partnership will both be aware that the 22+ HCP balanced or playing equivalent when unbalanced may be skewed slightly by this adjustment. This will become evident in the subsequent bidding.

Playing 2/1
1. After 2♣-2♦ you are in a game forcing sequence. You get to show the 5-card suit a level lower with zero memory load. You get to know immediately about a 5-3 fit. With minimal values for the opening bid/response, the auction is unlikely to progress beyond 3NT/4M.
2. After 2♣-2♥ (double negative), opener simply passes when the 5-card major is ♥. Unfortunately the strong hand is exposed on table but those vital trumps come into play which can stop the opponents running your 2-card suit in a 2NT contract. You are on the same level as a 2NT contract but now with a much better chance of making.
3. After 2♣-2♥ (double negative), opener simply corrects to 2♠ when the 5-card major is ♠. Again, those vital trumps come into play which can stop the opponents running your 2-card suit in a 2NT contract. You are on the same level as a 2NT contract but now with a much better chance of making.
4. Your 2NT bids are now free from the extremely low probability of containing a 5-card major. The vital bidding space consumed by PS continuations on level 3 and higher are now freed up for much more effective use. Choose something useful.
5. And here’s another big bonus. No more PS continuations REDUCES THE OVERALL MEMORY LOAD. This can become critical in long matches when mental fatigue starts setting in and errors start increasing.

Playing SAYC
This is open for further discussion. PS does not form part of SAYC. Do the regulatory authorities in the USA allow for modifications? If yes, go the same route as suggested for 2/1 above.

[Zelandakh]

For me, the memory load that 2♣ - 2♥ - 2♠ is drop dead and that I need to bid 2♣ - 2♥ - 3♠ with any unbalanced game-force with spades would be far in excess of anything Puppet could do to me, whichever version was being employed. Not to mention the disruption to our constructive bidding. But then a GF hand with spades opposite a double negative is probably also too low a probability occurrence to matter very much.

[manudude03]

Not to mention that you could easily be in the wrong strain after 2C-2H-P. Say responder has a very weak hand with 6 spades, it's not hard to come up with hands where you make 4S and are struggling to make 2H (Qxxxxx x xxx xxx opposite AKx AJ9xx Axx Ax)

[blackshoe]

2♣ is already way too busy a bid, IMO.

Neither 2/1 nor Standard American specify a particular response structure to 2♣ as "standard". Particularly since, like political parties in France, there are as many "definitions" of these systems as there are people playing them. That said, I'll grant that 2♥ "double negative" is fairly common among 2/1 players. What if I have a different idea how to respond to 2♣, one that's not compatible with your "stick the balanced 20-21 in there too" idea? Now I either have to abandon my preferred responses, or find another way to show the 20-21 hand. And as Zel says, there can be memory problems (although that's true of just about any setup).

For the record, I don't play Puppet Stayman. With those partners for whom basic Stayman is complicated enough (I seem to have quite a few of those) I play that. With those willing to take on a bit more (currently, unfortunately, none) I play Romex Stayman (over 2NT). If I'm bidding 1NT with a five card major, I just rebid as if it were four. Over 2NT, rebids after Romex Stayman will uncover the 5-3 fit, if there is one.

Opener's rebids after responder's 3♣ Romex Stayman:

3NT: 4-4 in the majors
3♠: 5 spades
3♥: 4 or 5 hearts (now 3♠ asks which it is)
3♦: any other holding, so fewer than 4 hearts, and fewer than 5 spades (now 3♥ asks if opener has 4 spades).

A Romex NT ladder:

12-16 HCP: open 1minor (usually), rebid 1NT
17-18 HCP: open 1minor (usually), rebid 2NT
19-20 HCP: open 1NT (artificial, F), rebid 2NT
21-22 HCP: open 2♦ (artificial, F), rebid 2NT
23-24 HCP: open 2♣ (artificial, F), rebid 2NT
25-26 HCP: open 2NT (natural, FG or — very rarely — 4m)
27-28 HCP: open 2♦, jump in NT
29-30 HCP: open 2♣, jump in NT

In the current "two card" version of Romex {at MPs, play "Romex" when vul, "Romex Forcing Club (RFC)" (basically a Precision variant) when not vul — at IMPs play RFC only at favorable} there are two ladders:

Romex:
12-16 HCP: open 1minor (usually), rebid 1NT
17-18 HCP: open 1minor (usually), rebid 2NT
19-20 HCP: open 1NT (artificial, F), rebid 2NT
21-22 HCP: open 2♦ (artificial, F), rebid 2NT
23-24 HCP: open 2♣ (artificial, F), rebid 2NT
25-26 HCP: open 2♣, rebid 2♥ (Kokish Relay)
27-28 HCP: open 2♦, jump in NT
29-30 HCP: open 2♣, jump in NT

RFC:
10-12 HCP: open 1NT (no five card majors here)
13-16 HCP: open 1♦ (usually), rebid 1NT
17-20 HCP: open 1♣, rebid 1NT (modified Stayman here, so that opener can show whether minimum (17-18) or maximum (19-20)
21-22 HCP: open 2♦ (artificial, F), rebid 2NT
23-24 HCP: open 1♣ (artificial, F), rebid 2NT
25-26 HCP: open 1♣, rebid 2♥ (Kokish Relay)
27-28 HCP: open 2♦, jump in NT

I'm not saying any of these is somehow "best", just that they work for me - or would if I could find a partner willing to play Romex.

[awm]

While I don't think much of Romex as a system (way too many strong bids to cater to way too few a percentage of hands), Romex Stayman is an excellent convention, way better than Puppet. It works just as well opposite a standard 2NT opening.