[luckyloser]

you and p hold the following hand:

♠Kxxx
♥Kx
♦x
♣AKQTxx

♠ATx
♥Jxxx
♦Kxxxx
♣x

opps remain silent. do not consider the bidding which may vary according to system. just tell me your choice of final contract playing MATCHPOINTS (IMPs should be easier). if this helps, it is the last board after a nearly perfect series of 7 boards (you are first, ahead with about 75%)and do not want to ruin the result, an average plus (better than 50%) will be fine. you should not shoot for a top but want to avoid a disaster.
what contract do you think the field will play? is there a clear best one or are the alternatives all feasible (c,s,nt), do you want to be in game?

COME ON FOLKS: VOTE and POST! just reading isn´t enough, we want your opinion!

[BunnyGo]

I don't expect game to be the standard contract. Two badly fitting hands with 23 HCP. I'd want to be in 1♠ or 1NT. I can't tell if spades will play a trick better or not.

[bigbenvic]

BunnyGo, on 2012-February-23, 05:20, said:

I don't expect game to be the standard contract. Two badly fitting hands with 23 HCP. I'd want to be in 1♠ or 1NT. I can't tell if spades will play a trick better or not.

I don't think game is a likely spot for the field either, nor do I think it's a good chance to make.

I think the safest contract is in ♣, 5 trumps and 2♠ are almost a given and an 8th and 9th tricks look likely.
2♠ may make but if it does, then 3♣ should too, if things lie well and 3♠ makes, you are losing out playing in ♣. Ah well such is life.

With both hands having a singleton I don't expect to see balanced hands in both my opponents, it can happen but I think it's unlikely. So if suits are breaking bad I want the safest spot and I think clubs is that spot.

[ggwhiz]

BunnyGo, on 2012-February-23, 05:20, said:

I don't expect game to be the standard contract. Two badly fitting hands with 23 HCP. I'd want to be in 1♠ or 1NT. I can't tell if spades will play a trick better or not.

For better or worse I'm in 1♠

[AyunuS]

I'm the only one that says 1NT? It's the overall best. 1S could go down with a bad spade split. Clubs aren't worth as much. 1NT is an easy make when you probably take with at least 4 of the clubs, 2 spades, and at least 1 on some other suit that they try to lead to mess you up on. Since it's matchpoints the extra 10 points from play NT is significant, meaning you'd beat out anyone that took the same number of tricks on spades. Opps hands are most likely balanced though. You can't count having singletons towards them being unbalanced. All that matters if you have a perfectly balanced hand if you combined your team's 2 hands, and they haven't bid anything, meaning the opps hands are actually at their maximum possible expected balance. Therefore, you can probably run most of the clubs, but if the spades are really unbalanced and it's on spades, it might end up being to hard to take with the clubs.

And don't bid game. If the red cards are offsides you're pretty much doomed.