[Fluffy]

♠J10x
♥Axxx
♦AK9
♣KJx


♠K98xxx
♥x
♦Q10x
♣A10x


NS vulnerable, RHO deals

(pass)-2♠-(3♥)-4♠
all pass


LHO hesitates long then leads ♥K

after some discovery play you find out LHO has ♠AQ ♥KJ109xx ♦xx and only 3 clubs, RHO having ♠xx ♥Qx ♦Jxxxx and 4 clubs.

who has ♣Q?

[mikeh]

I don't think there is any reason to be confident unless you know LHO well. He's a thinking player, since most players don't think to try to smother declarer's possible stiff Q♥, but thatt doesn't tell us how aggressive he is....he does have 6 chunky hearts and the equivalent of AK in spades....even if the weak 2 bidder doesn't have the K, spades rate to be led...and the vulnerability is in his favour.

Against most players, I'd think that they'd want the Q♣ to bid....AQ KJ109xx xx Qxx being more acceptable than AQ KJ109xx xx xxx, and against most players I'd back that hunch.

Against a known aggressive player, I'd go with the 4-3 odds and hook RHO.

Sorry I couldn't give you a simple RHO/LHO answer.

[inquiry]

The opponents.


I GUESS i would go with the card odds here, and play rho for the queen, because I don't see much difference in west hand if he had or didn't have the club queen. That is, the overcall is not great with or without it.

[Codo]

RHO
1. He is 4:3 in clubs.
2. Kind of restricted choice for LHO: LHO chose a very aggressive lead. With Qxx in clubs he may had choosen an aggressive club instead. With xxx he had just the hearts to lead aggressively.
3. With xx,xxx in the minors his fear that you can pitch possible heart losers on the minors must be bigger then with xx, Qxx.

[phil_20686]

Its strange because it would be a different problem in 5S, here you don't want to endanger your contract. In 5S you could play out all your trumps and squeeze lho in clubs and hearts and hope to get a read of him. This will not work vs good players.

Here that commits you to not taking the club hook, as you dont want to endanger 4S. Still, I would play LHO for the club Q, partly for the reasons mikeh gave, and partly because I think the squeeze is a more elegant line, and you never know, lho might get rid of two clubs and save you the bother.

[whereagles]

The strange ♥K lead probably means LHO was trying to give pard a heart ruff (he has trump control). That must mean his alternatives sucked, so it's just possible that he has xx/Qxx in the residue. With xx/xxx a club lead might have been more attractive. And besides, he's only showed 10 hcp so far. Sometimes people won't overcall without a full opener.

I'm going with LHO.

[han]

Agree with mikeh, LHO.

[bluecalm]

Yeah, LHO.
Both what Mikeh said and lead inference (I think with AQ KJTxx xx xxx he is at least somewhat likely to lead a club).