[Fluffy]

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bidding is speculative (or bad if you prefer), but you land here, ♦10 is led to the jack and queen.

[fromageGB]

deleted

This post has been edited by fromageGB: 2011-November-06, 08:05

[fromageGB]

I think most people will be in hearts, some in a slam. Playing in hearts I will finesse hearts twice, making 11 or 12 accordingly.

At matchpoints I think I have to play the same way, as playing safe will end up with a bad score.

At IMPs I cannot compensate for a slam swing with risky overtricks, so I ignore hearts settle for 9 or 10 tricks depending on the spade finesse.

This post has been edited by fromageGB: 2011-November-06, 08:20

[gnasher]

I assume it's matchpoints.

I'd win, play a heart to the jack, win the diamond continuation, and cash whatever black winners I have, finishing in hand. At that point I'll probably have a complete count - I'll assume RHO has seven diamonds - so I'll know whether to take another finesse, play for the drop, or endplay RHO.

If East shows out on the second spade and both players follow to the clubs, I won't know whether RHO is 1273 or 1174. Taking into account restricted-choice considerations, 1-KQ-73 is a little more likely than 1-H-73. In those circumstances, the correct play depends on the strength of the field - if I think everyone will be in game, I should finesse; if a sizeable fraction will be in slam I should play for the drop.

[pooltuna]

last time I checked 2♦ + 3♣ + 3♠ + 1♥ = 9 which is why I lead a ♥ to the A and another

[Fluffy]

yeah its matchpoints obviously, sorry

[fromageGB]

gnasher, on 2011-November-06, 12:15, said:

<snip> At that point I'll probably have a complete count - I'll assume RHO has seven diamonds - so I'll know whether to take another finesse, play for the drop, or endplay RHO.</endsnip>

RHO will not be too concerned if you endplay him. I think he might reel off a few diamonds.

I think it is a mistake to bank everything on a 7 card suit. Many people make a WJO on a 6 card suit, and many of their partners lead top of nothing in that suit, not showing length.

[gnasher]

fromageGB, on 2011-November-06, 14:49, said:

RHO will not be too concerned if you endplay him. I think he might reel off a few diamonds.

Are those the same diamonds as the ones that he discarded on my black-suit winners?

Quote

I think it is a mistake to bank everything on a 7 card suit. Many people make a WJO on a 6 card suit, and many of their partners lead top of nothing in that suit, not showing length.

I think it would be very unusual to lead the ten from 10xx, but in any case if that was their agreement I expect Fluffy would have told us. 109x is possible, but I'm willing to take the risk that RHO has something like x KQ Q87xxx 10xxx.

[fromageGB]

gnasher, on 2011-November-06, 14:51, said:

Are those the same diamonds as the ones that he discarded on my black-suit winners?

Let's say RHO started with a 2263 shape. If my maths is up to it, we've had 9 tricks so far. This leaves RHO with 3 diamonds and a heart. Throw him in with a diamond and you do make your contract. Throw him in with a heart and you go off.

OK, if he started with only 1 spade then your extra spade winner means he is down to 2 diamonds and a heart. Throw him in with a diamond and you make 10 tricks, with a heart and make 9 tricks.

Whatever, it's a bottom if you throw RHO in.

I think the only way you can redeem your bidding is to play the same way as those in hearts, then you outscore those not in a making slam. As to that way, surely it is best to play LHO for at least one of the heart honours, and finesse twice. However, play spades first to see if there is a riskless 4th trick there. Then when you take the the second finesse and it loses, you will at least beat those in slam.

[gnasher]

fromageGB, on 2011-November-06, 15:31, said:

Let's say RHO started with a 2263 shape. If my maths is up to it, we've had 9 tricks so far. This leaves RHO with 3 diamonds and a heart. Throw him in with a diamond and you do make your contract. Throw him in with a heart and you go off.

OK, if he started with only 1 spade then your extra spade winner means he is down to 2 diamonds and a heart. Throw him in with a diamond and you make 10 tricks, with a heart and make 9 tricks.

Whatever, it's a bottom if you throw RHO in.

Sorry, but I don't understand your point, or possibly you don't understand mine.

If RHO follows to two spades and three clubs, I'll play him for 2173, so I'll take a second heart finesse. (If he turns out to be 2263, I'll lose the rest of the tricks, for a zero.)

If RHO follows to two spades and two clubs, I'll play him for 2272, by playing for the drop in hearts, beating anyone who took two heart finesses. (If he turns out to be 2362, there was probably nothing I could have done anyway.)

If RHO follows to one spade and two clubs, I'll know he's 1372. On the black-suit winners he will discard diamonds, then I'll endplay him to lead into my ♥AJ.

Quote

I think the only way you can redeem your bidding is to play the same way as those in hearts, then you outscore those not in a making slam. As to that way, surely it is best to play LHO for at least one of the heart honours, and finesse twice. However, play spades first to see if there is a riskless 4th trick there. Then when you take the the second finesse and it loses, you will at least beat those in slam.

So your plan, as I understand it, is to play exactly the same line as me, except that in the ending you're going to take a second heart finesse even if you know it's going to fail?

[Fluffy]

harts were 4-0 onside, I though the weak field would play for the drop, but 12 tricks were made by most (perhaps splitting?)

[dwar0123]

I must be missing something, but even if you play for the drop you still finesse the first round, you don't lose anything and in this case you make a bundle.

[manudude03]

dwar0123, on 2011-November-17, 14:51, said:

I must be missing something, but even if you play for the drop you still finesse the first round, you don't lose anything and in this case you make a bundle.

You lose 2 heart tricks to Hxx-H doing that.