[Phil]

Partner opens a 15-17 1N with occasional upgrades. Can someone provide a sim that shows the frequency of 6♦ and 6N making across from ♠ ATx ♥ xx ♦ AQTxx ♣ KQx:

1. 14 with a good five card or six card suit.
2. 15
3. 15 with a good five card or six card suit
4. 16
5. 16 4333
6. 17
7. 17 4333

I know its a lot of work. Thanks in advance.

[Cascade]

Define "good" 5-card suit.

Does the six-card suit need to be good?

[Hanoi5]

And, is it one simulation with everything or 7 different simulations?

If you want 7 then, 16 4333 and 16 are different or can 16 include some 4333's?

[Phil]

1. I would call a good suit 2 of the top 3 or AJT/KJT.

2. Yes, 16 4333 is different than 16. I should have said "non 4333, 16 (or 17)"

I would like the relative % of 6♦6N with each parameter, so 14 different sims I suppose.

[Hanoi5]

Well I made one including all 7 and got 6♦ makes 64% of the time, while 6NT 66%. It's harder to find the killing lead against NT than against Diamonds

I suppose a good five or six card suit in the case of 14 or 15 HCP's includes hands with 5-card Majors (I suppose no 6-card Majors).

[Hanoi5]

1. 14 with a good 5-card/6-card minor = 6♦=35% 6NT=23%
14 with a good 5-card/6-card minor or a good 5-card Major = 6♦=26% 6NT=21%
2. 15 Balanced but not a 5-card suit = 6♦=58% 6NT=60%
3. 15 with a good 5-card/6-card minor = 6♦=54% 6NT=45%
15 with a good 5-card/6-card minor or a good 5-card Major = 6♦=57% 6NT=58%
4. 16 4333 = 6♦=75% 6NT=76%
5. 16 No 4333 = 6♦=71% 6NT=73%
6. 17 No 4333 = 6♦=89% 6NT=92%
7. 17 4333 = 6♦=88% 6NT=91%

[Cascade]

Eash simulation based on 1000 hands double dummy

Allowed distributions

4333
4432
5332
5422 but not 45 or 54 Majors
6322 aix card minor

For a good five-card suit - 2 of the top three honours or AJTxx or KJTxx or better

Contract Freq  HCP     Restrictions
6D	531	15	any
6NT	532	15	any
6D	718	16	any
6NT	758	16	any
6D	868	17	any
6NT	909	17	any
6D	453	15	4333
6NT	442	15	4333
6D	689	16	4333
6NT	712	16	4333
6D	866	17	4333
6NT	893	17	4333
6D	544	15	no 4333
6NT	525	15	no 4333
6D	724	16	no 4333
6NT	787	16	no 4333
6D	842	17	no 4333
6NT	917	17	no 4333
6D	408	14	good 5-card
6NT	351	14	good 5-card
6D	532	15	good 5-card
6NT	553	15	good 5-card

[Phil]

Thanks for the help everyone.

I held this hand yesterday and invited with 4N. Partner accepted with QJx AKJTx KJx xx. Not the worst slam you'll ever bid but the hands don't mesh well and you'd rather not be there. I think if my invite is correct based on the sims that his acceptance is also correct with a 15 and a good 5 card suit.

6♦ seems better on these cards. I also find it interesting that in very few of the cases that 6♦ is rarely better overall than 6N.

[Cascade]

Phil, on 2011-October-01, 21:34, said:

I also find it interesting that in very few of the cases that 6♦ is rarely better overall than 6N.

Maybe we should check how often 6♦ makes and 6NT does not.

[Hanoi5]

The thing with 6♦ is that it should be better with a fit and some balanced hands don't promise a fit.

I only made 100 hands per case so maybe that's where the difference comes from.

I didn't use 5422, maybe that's why diamonds were better in my simulations.

I used AT2 43 AQT65 KQ7 as the original hand.

[mich-b]

Phil, on 2011-October-01, 21:34, said:

Thanks for the help everyone.

I held this hand yesterday and invited with 4N. Partner accepted with QJx AKJTx KJx xx. Not the worst slam you'll ever bid but the hands don't mesh well and you'd rather not be there. I think if my invite is correct based on the sims that his acceptance is also correct with a 15 and a good 5 card suit.

6♦ seems better on these cards. I also find it interesting that in very few of the cases that 6♦ is rarely better overall than 6N.

Once he decided to accept , he could bid 5♥ , over which you would bid 6♦ , which he would happily pass

[sathyab]

mich-b, on 2011-October-02, 08:04, said:

Once he decided to accept , he could bid 5♥ , over which you would bid 6♦ , which he would happily pass

Great simulation results. It looks like, opposite an invite of 16 or upgraded 15 (for five-card suit), you get to a good slam (well over 50%) with any hard 16 or higher, but only a marginal one (slightly above 50%) with a 15 upgraded to 16 for a good 5-card suit.